Strategic Paths for a Digital Future. Jeff Hayes President May 8, 2012

Transcription

1 Strategic Paths for a Digital Future Jeff Hayes President May 8, InfoTrends 1

2 Agenda Technology and Recessions Offset Marginalized Strategic Paths InfoTrends Activities 2

3 Technology Disrupts, Recessions Clarify Offset, BW EP Color EP Color EP, Inkjet Digital Prepress Digital Workflow Digital Media Smart Media U.S. Print and Online Advertising ($B) $160 $120 $80 $40 Analog Print Digital Print Digital Advertising R E C E S S I O N? $0 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 Segments: U.S. Commercial Print, Quick Print, In-Plant, Data Center, Photofinishing 3

4 Similar Trends in Western Europe W.E. Print and On-line Advertising ($B) Digital Advertising 80 Digital Print 40 Analog Print 0 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 Sources: InfoTrends, Internet Advertising Bureau (IAB UK), PwC, Online Marketing Group (OVK) of the Federal Association of the Digital Economy (BVDW) 4

5 Digital Print Marginalizes Offset HQ Offset Color EP Inkjet Low Cost Offset 5

6 Where Can You Grow?? 6

7 More Strategic Paths speed quality efficiency sustainability global markets Continuous investments in Technology Business processes Sales & marketing that lead to Operations Driven Surviving Thriving New Dying Striving services products customers business models Innovation Driven 7

8 Strategic Paths for Service Providers Thriving Operations Driven Surviving Dying Striving Innovation Driven 8

9 Business & Infrastructure Transformation On-site + Cloud/3 rd -party Design Pre-media Workflow Storage DAM Supply chain e-commerce Programming Bandwidth Mobile CRM Online Social Integration Print Bindery Fulfillment Analytics Graphic Communications Services 9

10 Strategy Recommendations Focus on growth markets and applications High growth countries Labels, packaging, textiles, non-documents Invest in digital color printing and digital media services Inkjet, color EP Programming, data, content, mobile Build your sourcing platform and network Workflow, supply chain Commerce 10

11 InfoTrends Helping you understand and develop markets Annual access Low costs production media & outsourcing office document technology & services consumer & pro imaging Proprietary, focused In-depth, shared funding 11

12 New InfoTrends Activities Wide Format Metrics Ultimate Guides Print MIS Digital Media and Marketing Service 12

13 Recent Multi-Client Studies High Speed Continuous Inkjet Customer Analysis Digital Front Ends Emergence of Secure Digital Mailbox Services Promotional Print in a Mobile World SMB Marketing Automation Opportunity Evolution of Cross Media Marketing Service Providers 13

14 New Studies In Progress What Do Label and Packaging Converters Want Transforming Textile Printing Next Generation Personalized Printed Products Print On Demand India Service Expansion for Document Outsourcing 14

15 Today s Agenda When All That Could Become Digital Truly Became Digital Ralf Schlözer, Director The Data drupa: Software & Workflow Transforming the Industry Kaspar Roos, Associate Director Wide Format and the Packaging Parallel Barney Cox, Senior Consultant Production Digital Print Growth Opportunities in Asia Pacific Jim Hamilton, Group Director 15

16 drupa When All That Could Become Digital Truly Became Digital Ralf Schlözer Director On Demand Printing & Publishing 8. May InfoTrends 16

17 The Digital Production Printing Hardware Market Continuous Feed Printers High-end Colour Presses High End Heavy-duty B&W cut-sheet Printer Light production Colour and B&W MFPs Light- Mid-Production Mid Volume Colour and B&W Printer Digital Colour and B&W MFPs found in high volume office environments as well Entry Level 17

18 On Demand Printing Placements US and W. Europe Placements 160,000 Impact of financial crisis Strong growth in High End Low growth in Light/Mid Decline in Entry Level 120,000 High End 80,000 Light- Mid-Production 40,000 Entry Level Source: InfoTrends Placement Report US and WE 18

19 2011 On Demand Printing Placements vs. Print Volume Share of Total 100% 80% 60% 40% High End Light- Mid-Production Entry Level 20% 0% Placements Print Volume Source: InfoTrends 2010 Forecast US and WE 19

20 Global On Demand Printing Volume Print Volume (B A4 pages) 1,400 1,200 1,000 High End Light- Mid-Production Entry Level Source: InfoTrends 2010 Global Forecast 20

21 Global On Demand Printing Volume Driven by Production Color A4 Print Volume (B) 1,400 1,200 1, CAGR 27% High End Color High End B&W Light- Mid-Production Entry Level Source: InfoTrends 2010 Global Forecast 21

22 Speed pages/minute Productivity Driving Adoption Digital color is Closing the Productivity Gap Full Web Half web B0 - perfecting Roll-fed inkjet B0 - simplex B1 - simplex B1 - perfecting B2 - perfecting 500 B2 Sheet-fed inkjet B2 - simplex B3 - perfecting 250 Roll-fed dry toner SRA3 Sheet-fed toner B3 - simplex Digital Color Sheet-fed Offset Web Offset 22

23 When Everything Became B2 A complete list of all vendors offering digital B2 solutions Delphax Fujifilm HP Indigo Jadason Konica Minolta / Komori Landa MGI Miyakoshi / Ryobi Screen 23

24 When Everything Became Inkjet A complete list of all inkjet system vendors * Delphax Founder Fujifilm GraphTech HP Impika KBA Kodak Komori Landa Matti / CTC Japan Miyakoshi MGI Océ Pitney Bowes Ricoh RISO Timsons TKS Xerox * Document Production Printing Systems Only 24

25 Technology Death Battle INK TONER 25

26 InfoTrends Global CF Color Inkjet Study 52 in-depth customer interviews Uptime of CF inkjet is fine, cost base is good, ROI is on track Good enough quality at least in transaction End customers are accepting inkjet Paper is an issue but there are workarounds Of course many smaller kinks exist when it comes to individual deployments 26

27 Global High-Speed Color Printer Placements Are Rising Color Printer Placements* > 10 Million Impressions per Month Duty Cycle InfoTrends Forecasted Growth % for placements 47% for annual print volume *Note: Each placement is one four-color print engine Source: InfoTrends Quarterly Tracking Program 27

28 Duty Cycle (in million A4) 2011 Continuous Feed Colour Inkjet Line Up 140 Fuji Xerox HP T400 (140) Impika Info Print Kodak Miyako shi Océ Pitney Bowes IJ 42 (140) Screen Xerox 120 Prosper 5000 XL(120) Inkjet 200m model (80) 2800 Inkjet 100m model (40) T350 (105) T300 (75) T200 (25) iprint 250 (108) iprint 150 (65) iprint 125 (54) iprint 75 (32) 5000 VP (80) 5000 GP (40) 5000 MP (20) VX 5000 (93) VL6200 (61) 500 W (50) 300 W (30) 500 N (25) 300 N (15) MPJ F (80) MPJ C (50) MPJ E (40) MPJ C (25) JS 3300 (98) JS 3000 (80) JS 2800 (65) JS 1900 (55) JS 2200 (50) JS 1400 (43) JS 1500 (44) JS 1000 (33) CS 3500 (15) IJ 30 (75) IJ 20 (25) TruePress Jet 520 ZZ (80) TruePress Jet 520 (40) TruePress Jet 520 EX (20) CiPress 500 (50 twin) 980 (22) Manufacturer's duty cycle is in parentheses Italic = InfoTrends estimate Xerox 980 is toner system 28

29 High-End Inkjet Growth versus Choice Over 40 Colour CF models (>10M duty cycle) marketed in 2011 About 320 engines installed worldwide in engines = 1 print line = about 4 installations per model on average 29

30 Technology Death Battle INKJET INKJET 30

31 High-End Inkjet Expectations Growth at the expense of all other print processes Digital Analogue Limited investment capital from PSPs Affordability Size Considerable competition in inkjet offerings Wide range of products Price pressure 31

32 When (Almost) Everything Became Inkjet Liquid toner electrophotography HP Indigo Océ Miyakoshi / Ryobi Xeikon 32

33 Summary Digital printing is the best fit to today's requirements Inkjet is moving to the next stage against mainstream analogue Liquid toner can contend for high-quality, high volume applications Despite all the opportunities the competition remains stiff 33

34 The Data Drupa Key Software Trends at Drupa 2012 Kaspar Roos Associate Director May 8 th InfoTrends 34

35 Cross-Media Strategy Is Essential E-books Have Lifted Off Rise of Social Media Explosive growth of mobile devices 35

36 Strategic Issues for Vendors How can customers grow in a consolidating market? How can customers produce more efficiently? 36

37 Data is the Answer 1. Mining Cloud infrastructure to help 2. Refining 3. Applying Analytics & visualization to extract relevance Insights increase productivity and improve targeted communications 37

38 Software Evolution Drupa 2004 Drupa 2008 Drupa 2012 Drupa 2016 JDF W2P Hybrid Cloud 38

39 Data Increases Value and Efficiency Communication Trends (Enterprises & SMBs) Print Production Trends (PSPs & MSPs) 39

40 Enterprise Communication Trends 1. Optimizing Customer Interaction Data Analytics 2. Marketing Automation & Brand Control Meta data to describe & classify assets 3. Cross-Media Marketing Digital Content & Channels 4. Changing Role of Print Drive recipients to online channels 40

41 Similar Trends Visible at SMBs Do you currently use the following Digital channels to promote your business on the Internet? Company Web site 83% 83% Search Engine Marketing Online directory Social network presence 35% 34% 40% 61% 59% 61% Display/Banner ads Blogs Online video 9% 12% 13% 27% 32% 39% 2011 (N = 2,010) 2009 (N = 2,243) Podcast or Webinar 7% 21% Multiple Responses Permitted 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Percentage of Respondents Source: InfoTrends SMB marketing automation study,

42 Vendor Implications Greater need for data tools, support and services More opportunities to apply data Targeted communications Process efficiency & machine utilization Role of print is changing Becoming a premium channel Drive recipients to online channels It is about optimizing the total communication experience from creation to fulfilment across every available channel Data Will Drive This 42

43 PSPs Are Adding IT Capabilities Strongly agree Somewhat agree Don't agree / no opinion The addition of IT provides a competitive edge to my print operation 59% 20% IT enables my operations to provide better solutions that fit my customers needs 50% 29% N = 133 Respondents who employ dedicated IT professionals 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: InfoTrends Emerging Trends, Q

44 Disruption & Transformation: Solving the Innovation Gap Disruptive Technologies Mobile Social Web Emergence of Cloud-based Platforms Transformative Technologies Data Analytics Web to Print Workflow to improve communication ROI for higher productivity 44

45 Cloud Workflow Direction End-users End-users End-users End-users End-users End-users End-users End-users Partner Solutions Partner Solutions Partner Solutions Cloud-based Workflow Automation (Vendor) Print Operation 45

46 Thank You! Follow me on 46

47 Wide Format & The Packaging Parallel Barney Cox Senior Consultant 8 th May InfoTrends 47

48 Printing Industry Déjà Vu Cusp of major industry transformation Complex workflows and demanding applications Numerous partnerships and acquisitions Market development is essential 48

49 Print Industry Transformers Commercial Books Photo Signage Labels Packaging?? On-demand production Super efficient workflows DAM of approved artwork W2P/e-commerce customers, suppliers Great marketing 49

50 Packaging is Ripe for Transformation Technology New players Digital Package Printing Buyer Demand Globalization Supply Chain 50

51 Pertinent, personal personalized 51

52 Wide Format and Packaging Core Technologies Heads Presses Integration & Customization Workflow Color management Print MIS DAM Web-to-print Finishing 52

53 Technology Vendors Making Their Moves Traditional Digital Emerging 53

54 PSPs diversifying to deal with new market conditions What kinds of changes have you made to deal with new market conditions? N =

55 Wide Format PSPs Are Interested in Packaging Which of these print sectors would you expect to diversify into? Packaging N = 136 Respondents who plan to diversify into other print sectors 55

56 Packaging Firms Are Eyeing Wide Format Ely plant Using 3D structural and graphical techniques to produce the full range of point-of-sale display packaging Bradford plant Printing large format POS, POP and banners London agency In-house promotion agency dedicated to improving the profile of clients and their respective brands 56

57 In Store: Two Become One Packaging + Signage Primary and secondary packaging FSDU, POP, POS Banners Integrated product campaigns Incremental revenue Design Production Installation 57

58 Global Installed Base of Wide Format Inkjet Presses Packaging and Labels Units 20,000 Low End Mid Range High end Total CAGR, % 44.7% 44.9% 7.2% 15,000 10,000 5,

59 Global Value of Print From Wide Format Inkjet Presses Packaging and Labels ($M) Value of Print ($M) $400 Low End Mid Range High end Total CAGR, % 52.3% 52.6% 18.4% $300 $200 $100 $

60 Market Development is Essential Awareness of problems and solutions Tools for quantifying impact Ideas for new packaging designs Designing for digital Sales and marketing training 60

61 Packaging Strategy Recommendations Expect Prepare Hire Seek Invest 61

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63 Production Digital Print in Asia Pacific Jim Hamilton Group Director May 8, InfoTrends 63

64 drupa 2012 = The Asia Pacific drupa Large, growing market Source of many key technologies & manufacturing Strong history of print, but modest production digital print Complex and vitally important 64

65 APAC Economies Size and Growth Projected GDP Growth 2011 to % 10% 8% India $ % China $ % Growth APAC $ % $ % APAC 6% 4% 2% Mature APAC $ % $ % North America $ % European Union 0% $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 GDP Purchasing Power Parity (Current $T) Source: International Monetary Fund 65

66 Growth APAC Countries Taking Big Share of Global GDP Share of Global GDP 100% Printing equipment and supplies will follow 80% 26.1% 31.8% Growth APAC 60% 40% 20% 9.8% 23.2% 20.9% 8.8% 22.9% 19.3% Mature APAC ROW North America European Union 0% 20.1% 17.2% Source: International Monetary Fund 66

67 The Impact of the Earthquake and Tsunami 67

68 APAC is Critical for Digital Printing Equipment Manufacturing 68

69 Impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake 2Q 2011 shipments vs. 5-year 2Q average 15.2% -0.6% -9.9% -15.1% -17.6% -16.3% -17.1% 70 to 90 MFP 91+ MFP SF printer 0 to 100K 101 to 300K 301 to 999K 1 to 10M Black & White (ppm) Color (duty cycle) InfoTrends Quarterly Tracker 69

70 2010 Chinese Printing Industry Overview Value of Print = 576 billion (up 12% over 2009) About 106,400 printing enterprises; 4.5 million employees Roughly $845,000 per enterprise; $20,000 per employee Printing equipment revenue = 18 billion (up 20%) About 750 manufacturers; about $3.75M per company Printing material revenue = 37.3 billion (up 12%) About 250 producers; about $23.3M per company Over 3700 paper manufacturers Source: The Printing and Printing Equipment Industries Association of China 70

71 Chinese Printing Industry Growth Rate ( ) Label 23.1% Packaging 16.6% Trade Other Commercial Notebooks Newspapers Screen Wide format advertising Prepress Books & periodicals 13.0% 10.8% 10.5% 9.1% 9.1% 8.7% 8.3% 7.7% 5.8% 0% 10% 20% 30% Source: The Printing and Printing Equipment Industries Association of China 71

72 Conventional and Digital Print in China Fundamental market change Quick printing has become digital Shifting towards higher end segments 72

73 China Production Digital Print Market Retail Value of Print Retail Value of Print (CNY Millions) 40,000 37,802 CAGR Overall 18.8% 30,000 20,000 16,005 32,940 Color 20.8% 10,000 12,799 B&W 8.7% 0 3,206 4, Source: InfoTrends China Print On Demand Market Forecast 73

74 Next Stop: India Huge growth opportunity for production digital print Large GDP, strong annual growth Growing middle class and literacy Strong printing tradition High interest in production digital print Complex distribution and application requirements 74

75 West vs. APAC: The Value of Production Digital Print Low cost short runs / quick turnaround Western Markets APAC (Mature) APAC (Growth) Very important Important Important (at the right price) Mail-based applications Dominant Important Less important Automated workflows Very important Important Less important Labor cost High Significant Low, but rising Capital acquisition cost Important Important Very important Running cost Market driven Market driven Critical to success OEM supplies Less common Common Common Break-fix services Often direct Through channels Through channels Professional services (integration & business development) Well established Developing Nascent 75

76 Recommendations The region deserves special attention given the growth potential Success in Asia Pacific requires a long-term commitment A sustained and local program is a requirement Partners are essential For software, distribution, service, supplies, marketing, business development, integration services A diversified supply chain provides insurance against market shifts and natural disasters System vendors must reassess the true values of production digital print for each country 76

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