Ministry of Defence Cost Assurance & Analysis Service (CAAS) SCAF Challenge (aka Rosie and Jim flee Barnsley)

Transcription

1 Ministry of Defence Cost Assurance & Analysis Service (CAAS) SCAF Challenge 2014 (aka Rosie and Jim flee Barnsley)

2 Our Team Rachel Frosdick Michael Richardson Jamie Hill Introduction Lee Cheshire Robert Alder BSc. Mathematics 6 months MoD Bristol BSc. Mechanical Engineering 3 months MoD London BEng. Aerospace Engineering 6 months MoD Cambridge BEng. General Engineering 6 months MoD Barrow-in-Furness BEng. Aerospace Engineering 6 months MoD Yeovilton

3 The Task Use our project management, planning, cost analysis and estimating skills to: Introduction Plan a family move to the USA Produce a cost estimate incorporating risk and uncertainty Use the cost estimate to propose a budget to a new employer

4 The Ragdolls Jim Rosie Introduction Duck (the dog) and Bump John

5 The Situation The Ragdoll family live in beautiful Barnsley but Jim has been offered a job in Washington DC... Introduction

6 Project Engagement Engagement Stages: IPEC 1 Initiate 2 Plan 3 - Execute 4 Close CAAS standardised way of working to track task engagement. Giving our team a summary record of the project, its control and management from start (Initiate) to finish (Close). The Engagement Tracker was updated as the project progressed to ensure all key milestones and deliverables were met. Approach

7 Initiate Phase Initiate Initiate Stakeholder Identification Tool Identification Limitations and Restrictions affecting Project Interest vs. Influence Communication and Planning Data Organisation And Analysis Presenting

8 Stakeholder Identification Initiate Stakeholders Jim + Family Current UK Govt Department New US Department Duck the Dog Tax Payers Estate agent Removals Airline

9 Tool Identification Initiate Microsoft Excel Project timeline Gantt chart Data organisation Risk analysis model Risk Analysis Software Communication + Collaboration Microsoft Office Sharepoint Server (MOSS) Instant Messaging Telephone Microsoft Powerpoint For this lovely presentation

10 Limitations and Restrictions Initiate Geographic Travelled over 597 Miles Regular relocations Understanding t northern dialect Experience All relatively new to MoD and Cost Analysis Time Work limit of 40 hours

11 Plan Planning Phase Plan Project Timeline Input Preparation 40 Hour Total Limit Work Packages Data Acquisition Data Organisation

12 Closure Execution Preparation Initiate Mon 03-Feb Tue 04-Feb Wed 05-Feb Thu 06-Feb Fri 07-Feb Sat Sun Mon 10-Feb Tue 11-Feb Wed 12-Feb Thu 13-Feb Fri 14-Feb Sat Sun Mon 17-Feb Tue 18-Feb Wed 19-Feb Thu 20-Feb Fri 21-Feb Sat Sun Mon 24-Feb Tue 25-Feb Wed 26-Feb Thu 27-Feb Fri 28-Feb Sat Sun Mon 03-Mar Tue 04-Mar Wed 05-Mar Thu 06-Mar Fri 07-Mar Sat Sun Mon 10-Mar Tue 11-Mar Wed 12-Mar Thu 13-Mar Fri 14-Mar Sat Sun Mon 17-Mar Tue 18-Mar Wed 19-Mar Thu 20-Mar Fri 21-Mar Sat Sun Mon 24-Mar Tue 25-Mar Wed 26-Mar Thu 27-Mar Fri 28-Mar Sat Sun Mon 31-Mar Tue 01-Apr Wed 02-Apr Plan Thu 03-Apr Fri 04-Apr Project Timeline Task Initial Meeting Create Moss Space Engagement Tracker Create Project Schedule Identify Tools/Software needed and how to obtain Task Lead ALL JH LC RF UNIDENTIFIED MDAL WBS CBS Review/Explain Figures Risk Identification Risk Analysis Catch Up Meeting Produce Model Produce Presentation Presentation Complete Practice Presentation Present to PB Receive Feedback and Amend Presentation Practice Presentation RA UNIDENTIFIED UNIDENTIFIED UNIDENTIFIED ALL ALL ALL JH UNIDENTIFIED UNIDENTIFIED ALL ALL ALL ALL Present to Dr Tim Submit Final Presentation SCAF Presentation Day LFE MR

13 Plan Input Preparation Data Acquisition Methods

14 Data Organisation Data Organisation Methods Master Data and Assumptions List (MDAL) Contains all data, information and assumptions Plan Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) List of all tasks required to complete the USA move Cost Breakdown Structure (CBS) Assigning costs to WBS Risk Register List of all risks and opportunities which may impact on the project

15 Execute Phase Execute Work Undertaken Output Execute Scenarios Risk Analysis 10, 50, 90% Confidence Levels Sensitivity Analysis and Main Cost Drivers Hullogram (S Curve)

16 Process Scenario 1 Company view Scenario 2 Ragdoll s view Populate Model Run Model using CAAS preferred risk analysis software Execute Receive and evaluate output

17 Scenario 1 Model Population Execute

18 Scenario 1 Model Population Treatment of Very Low Probability, High Impact Risks

19 Scenario 1 - Output Execute

20 Execute Scenario 1 - Output list of uncertainties list of risks analysis and reports

21 Execute Scenario 1 - Analysis and Reports hullogram bell curve commentary

22 Scenario 1 Analysis and Reports Estimate - Cost Breakdown 13% 44% 30% Transport Removals Accomodation Family Needs General Execute 2% 11%

23 Scenario 2 Execute

24 Schedule Risk Treated as impact on cost For example, if the family are delayed in transit, there will be additional costs for later flights, taxi waiting time, etc. Risk Register Examples:

25 Verification and Validation (V&V) We conducted an Internal Verification and Validation Exercise: Verification Cost model, architecture and techniques internally evaluated by team members not directly involved with modelling Validation Numbers and figures evaluated for accuracy by team members not directly involved with each CBS area We really wouldn t recommend this posture when conducting a V&V Task

26 Summary CAAS Invites the company to approve a budget of 28,518 This budgetary approval is at the Government standard. However it does not include the low probability high impact Risks which are: Natural Disaster Terrorism

27 Close Three main steps for closing this project: 1. Wash up session 2. LFE Report 3. Availability for future teams Lessons we ve already learnt: 1. Not to overcomplicate task 2. Exclude very low probability risk 3. Communicate with geographic limitations Close

28 Close If we had more time Different options Designed own model Schedule risk modelled in depth Costs to company over whole tour length More accurate Basis of estimates Independent Verification and Validation

29 Any Questions?