中国最佳实践讨论会 China Best Practice 零售策略 Retailing Strategy. October, 2013

Transcription

1 中国最佳实践讨论会 China Best Practice 零售策略 Retailing Strategy October, 2013

2 日程 Agenda 概要 Session Overview 当前零售行业定价策略和促销管理的特点 Recent Developments in Pricing Strategy and Promotion Management 业务挑战 Business Challenges 智能且有竞争力的定价策略 Smart and Competitive Pricing Strategy 促销管理 Promotion Management SAP 解决方案 SAP Solutions SAP 零售价格优化和零售促销管理 SAP Retail Pricing Optimization and SAP PMR 对基于时段的促销和临时促销的解决方案 Solution Option for Happy Hour and Ad-hoc Promotions 2013 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 2

3 概要 Session Overview 当前零售行业定价策略和促销管理的特点 Recent Developments in Pricing Strategy and Promotion Management

4 价格优势不容忽视 Get Pricing Right! 价格是零售行业竞争的主要工具之一, 也是企业收入和利润的重要来源 完善优化的定价策略会带来 : Pricing serves as a critical profit lever and value driver. An optimal overall pricing strategy for a retailer leads to: 增大客流量 : 有竞争力的价格能够吸引更多的消费者在门店或网店进行消费 Store traffic: Attract consumers to visit the brick-and-mortar store or a web page to buy the products with very competitive prices 维持较高的利润 : 在客流量保证的情况下, 对价格不敏感商品的销售也能得到有效促进, 从而拉高整体利润率 Sustain the margin: Leverage store traffic to sell less price-sensitive products at a higher margin 1% 的改进在 1% improvement in 经营利润增加 Increase operating Profits by 固定成本 Fixed Costs 2% 销售量 Volume 3% 可变成本 Variable Cost 7% 实售价格 Realized Price 10% Source: The Price Advantage Marn, et al (McKinsey & Co.) 2013 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 4

5 价格竞争日趋激烈 Price Competition Getting More Fierce 竞争对手的价格作为定价的重要参考 Price determination based on competitor prices 零售商会参考竞争对手的价格, 为同款商品制定相同或略低的价格 It s a now common practice to set price equivalent or slightly lower than competitor 为了增大客流量, 有时零售商对某件商品的定价甚至会低于成本价 To attract customer traffic, the price sometimes could be lower than the cost 价格竞争愈演愈烈, 以致发展为网络零售商之间激烈的价格战 Fierce competition on the lowest price cumulated in the so-called price war, especially among online retailers 网络时代的价格对消费者更加透明 Price is more transparent to online consumers 消费者会借助比价网站等工具寻找售价最低的卖家 Shoppers rely on price tracker to get the lowest price 2013 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 5

6 多样化的促销活动 Diversified Promotions 有计划的促销与无计划促销并存 Unplanned promotions coexist with planned promotions 零售商普遍会采用有计划的促销活动 Retailers in China typically conduct planned, structured promotions 这些促销活动一般都会伴随重要事件或日期, 如十一黄金周, 周年店庆等 Aligned to events such as Golden Week and other ceremonies 活动执行前都会预留一定的时间做策划 Upfront planning, with sufficient lead time to the event 灵活的, 未经详细策划的促销活动同样被用来做为促销的有力手段 Flexible, unplanned promotions as additional boosts 分时促销 Promotion/discount by hour 不易评估临时制定的促销活动效果是否理想 Retailer struggle with understanding the impact of these promotions on profit margin and inventory levels, because of the ad-hoc nature SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 6

7 业务挑战 Business Challenges 智能且有竞争力的定价策略 Smart and Competitive Pricing Strategy

8 挑战 1: 定价计划 Challenge 1: Price Planning 最优定价计划的实现往往面临以下挑战 The challenges with optimal price planning 掌握影响定价的多种变量 Manage multiple variables that influence retail pricing 需要针对不同的商品 市场划分和营销渠道制定最优的价格 Set optimal price by product, market segment and channel 市场需求和影响价格弹性的因素是动态变化的, 基于此定价计划也需要不断更新 Demand response and price elasticity factors might evolve over time, and need to be kept up-to-date 2013 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 8

9 挑战 2: 价格分析 Challenge 2: Price Analysis 哪些价格策略成功? 哪些还需要改进? Which pricing strategies are successful? Which ones need to be improved? 收集和整理历史数据 To collect and cleanse historical data 需要明确价格变化与销售量的关系 ( 价格弹性曲线 ) 和其他零售手段对销售量的影响 Need to figure out the correlation between price changes and sales volume ( price elasticity ) as well as other merchandising tactics 需要一个周详的算法综合考虑价格弹性和竞争对手价格等因素, 对产品的价格进行进一步优化 Need sophisticated algorithm to optimize pricing across the whole product portfolio, taking price elasticity and competitor pricing into account 销售量 Unit Sales 价格弹性 < 1 elasticity < 1 销售量 Unit Sales 价格非敏感产品 Price non-sensitive products 零售价格 Retail Price 价格弹性 > 1 elasticity > 1 价格敏感产品 Price sensitive products 零售价格 Retail Price 2013 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 9

10 业务挑战 Business Challenges 促销管理 Promotion Management

11 挑战 1: 促销的有效性 Effective Enough? 促销活动可能无法达到预期, 如果 Promotions don t meet their objectives in case of 错误的分析或历史数据导致对促销范围 策略进行错误的假设 Wrong assumptions on promotion scope/strategy based on inaccurate analytics or a lack of meaningful historical data 由于对消费者回应的错误假设, 造成缺货的局面 Out-of-stock situations, because of inaccurate assumptions on the consumer s response 对促销商品的定价策略有误 Sub-optimal pricing strategy for merchandize in promotion 对于促销执行过程中的异常情况应对不及时 ( 如缺货情况, 场面过热或过冷, 收入低于预期等 ) Slow response to exceptions during promotion execution (e.g. out-of-stock, hot spot and cold spot, belowexpectation revenue, etc.) 2013 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 11

12 挑战 2: 促销的时效性 Fast Enough? 线上 / 线下零售商若要在短时间内频繁更改促销计划, 必须具备以下两个条件 : It is common for online/offline stores to change promotion plans frequently with short lead time. The prerequisites for this kind of practice are: 快速的价格计算速度 Fast price update 促销的价格需要在有限的时间窗口内快速更新至系统和价签上 Price for promoted articles need to be updated both on systems and on the label within the time window. 及时的多销售渠道的价格同步 Fast price synchronization with omni-channel 对于有线上线下业务的 B2C 零售商, 不同销售渠道的价格需要同步快速的更新 For B2C retailer with O2O business, identical prices need to be distributed fast enough online and offline simultaneously 2013 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 12

13 SAP 解决方案 SAP Solutions SAP 零售价格优化和零售促销管理 SAP Retail Pricing Optimization and SAP PMR

14 价格优化需要分析与交易的协同 Analytics Go With Transactions SAP PMR 分析平台 Analytics Platform 顾客活动数据库 Customer Activity Repository 统一的需求预测 Unified Demand Forecast 交易平台 Transaction Platform SAP ERP 主数据 Master Data 库存数据 Inventory Data 销售历史数据 Sales History Data 多渠道前端 Multi-Channel Frontend POS 网店 Online Store Transaction Data 交易数据 移动设备 Mobile 2013 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 14

15 零售价格优化的流程 Process Flow of Retail Price Optimization SAP ERP SAP UDF 订单管理前台系统 Legacy OMS 数据输出 Output required data 1 数据收集 Data collection 销售数据输出 Output sales data 需求建模 Demand modeling 对模型的评估和调整 Model evaluation and tuning 预测和优化 Prediction and Optimization 价格审批 Approve price 更新 ERP 价格数据 Input price data to ERP 将优化后的价格传入 ERP Transfer optimized price to ERP 2013 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 15

16 客户需求 Customer Demand 零售价格优化的流程 Process Flow of Retail Price Optimization 数据收集 Data collection 需求建模 Demand modeling 对模型的评估和调整 Model evaluation and tuning 预测和优化 Prediction and optimization 1 2 从交易系统或数据仓库中获取销售历史数据和主数据 Extract historical sales data from transactional system or from a data warehouse 数据的时间范围一般为一年, 对于季节性较强的业务, 建议使用两年的数据 The time range of the data is typically one year. For business with strong seasonal variations, two years data would be needed. SAP 提供了一系列的行业标准模型将营销策略, 价格与客户需求进行关联 SAP provides industry standard models that correlate merchandise tactics and price with consumer demand 3 基于历史数据, 由数据分析师对模型参数进行调整 The model should be reviewed and tuned based on history data by statistical analyst to make sure the model parameter are set properly 对比预测结果和真实数据, 对模型进行测试 Test the model by comparing predictions with historical data 时间 time 4 使用模型进行分析和预测, 在此基础上对价格进行优化 Using the model for forecasting and for what-if analysis SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 16

17 有计划的促销 SAP 零售促销管理 (PMR) Planned Promotion SAP Promotion Management for Retail (PMR) SAP ERP SAP PMR SAP BI 数据输出 Outbound Processing 主数据 Master data 库存 Inventory 零售促销 Retail Promotion 消耗 Consumption 数据管理层 Data Management Layer POS 交易数据输出 POS transaction Outbound 促销计划激活 Promotion Activation 促销管理 Promotions 促销后分析 Post-Promotion Analytics 2013 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 17

18 SAP PMR 的一般流程 Process in SAP PMR SAP PMR 的流程 Process in SAP PMR 创建促销模板和促销事件 Build promotion templates and create event & offer previews 促销活动创建 Offer Creation 销售预测 Sales Forecast 预测促销结果 Forecast impact of promotional offer 根据不同的产品, 地点, 促销细节和时间对促销计划进行调整, 并对结果进行预测 Manage variations by product, location, offer details and date for what-if forecasting 促销预览 Event Preview 对促销进行预览并传到发布系统进行打印和展示 Event preview and interface to publishing system for print & display 2013 SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 18

19 SAP 解决方案 SAP Solutions 对基于时段的促销和临时促销的解决方案 Solution Option for Happy Hour and Ad-hoc Promotions

20 分时段促销和临时促销的解决方案 Solution Option for Happy Hour/ Ad-hoc Promotions 分时段促销场景 Happy Hour Promotion Scenario 所有在实体店和网店销售的鞋类商品将从明天上午 8 点至 10 点享受 5 折优惠 All the footwear sold at physical stores and Web shops will enjoy a 50% discount from 8:00 am to 11:00 am tomorrow. 临时促销场景 Ad-hoc Promotion Scenario 上午的促销结束后, 鞋类商品仍有较多库存积压 现计划从今天下午 5 点至 7 点对所有鞋类商品启动第二次五折促销活动 From the monitoring of inventory level and the feedback from store owners, the sales of footwear still need boosting. We plan to trigger a second round of promotion for the footwear from 5:00 pm to 7:00 pm today SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 20

21 分时段促销和临时促销的解决方案 Solution Option for Happy Hour/ Ad-hoc Promotions 如何支持以上促销需求 How to support this promotion requirement 针对此类促销的特点, 建议对定价规则, 而非单品价格进行同步 Instead of distributing price of single article, it is recommended to send price rules from backend to frontend. 定价规则的数据量远小于单品价格的数据量, 多个商品可供用一种定价规则 The data volume of price rules is much less the that of price data, several products can share the same rule. 不同的系统根据定价规则分别各自进行计算和更新 Price update conducts individually in different systems. SAP 决策服务管理 (DSM) 可支持在 SAP ERP 中创建价格变化规则 SAP Decision Service Management (DSM) supports to create price rule in SAP ERP SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved. 21

22 Thank you Contact information: 陈颖 Christie Chen SAP AGS CoE Logistics T: SAP AG or an SAP affiliate company. All rights reserved.