Service fulfilment systems: worldwide forecast

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1 Research Forecast Report Service fulfilment systems: worldwide forecast September 2014 Mark H. Mortensen and Dean Ramsay

2 2 Contents Slide no. 5. Executive summary 6. Worldwide service fulfilment systems forecast Order management, inventory management and activation systems revenue will continue steady growth 8. The mobile and business service segments will grow more quickly than the others, and mobile will outgrow residential broadband 9. Revenue growth rates will be highest in emerging markets 10. Recommendations 11. Recommendations for CSPs [1] 12. Recommendations for CSPs [2] 13. Recommendations for suppliers [1] 14. Recommendations for suppliers [2] 15. Forecast 16. Order management systems are now usually tied to the full service fulfilment stack 17. Order management system revenue will grow most quickly in emerging markets 18. Order management systems for residential broadband services will continue to dominate the market 19. COTS inventory systems will continue to replace older, in-house developed systems in modest transformation projects 20. The inventory system market will continue to grow, but will change as the number of federation and transformation projects increases Slide no. 21. The focus in the inventory management system market will continue to shift towards IP infrastructure, and IT-like equipment and services 22. Activation systems for new services are being added to existing service fulfilment system stacks 23. Activation system revenue will grow strongly in emerging markets 24. Activation systems focus on mobile and OTT services, as well as IP and fibre infrastructure 25. Engineering systems will be driven by LTE in the short term, SON in the medium term and FTTx in the long term 26. The engineering systems market will continue its modest growth worldwide, with different foci in different markets 27. Engineering systems will focus on new LTE and SON mobile networks, business IP services and fibre infrastructure 28. Market drivers and inhibitors 29. Market drivers and inhibitors 30. Service fulfilment system market drivers [1] 31. Service fulfilment system market drivers [2] 32. Service fulfilment system market drivers [3] 33. Service fulfilment system market inhibitors [1] 34. Service fulfilment system market inhibitors [2] 35. Business environment 36. The business environment 37. Long-term service fulfilment market trends

3 3 Contents Slide no. 38. Recent service fulfilment market trends [1] 39. Recent service fulfilment market trends [2] 40. Market definition 41. Telecoms software market segmentation 42. Service fulfilment sub-segment definitions 43. Order management 44. Inventory management 45. Activation 46. Engineering systems 47. Service fulfilment service sector and revenue type definitions Slide no. 48. Definition of geographical regions 49. Key business drivers and market characteristics and how they map to different operational and software strategies 50. Our comprehensive forecast model is supported by a sound knowledge of markets 51. About the authors and Analysys Mason 52. About the authors 53. About Analysys Mason 54. Research from Analysys Mason 55. Consulting from Analysys Mason

4 4 List of figures Figure 1: Service fulfilment system revenue, worldwide, Figure 2: Service fulfilment system revenue by sub-segment, worldwide, Figure 3: Service fulfilment system revenue by telecoms service, worldwide, Figure 4: Service fulfilment system revenue by region, worldwide, Figure 5: Order management system revenue, worldwide, Figure 6: Order management system revenue by region, worldwide, Figure 7: Order management system revenue by telecoms service, worldwide, Figure 8: Inventory management system revenue, worldwide, Figure 9: Inventory management system revenue by region, worldwide, Figure 10: Inventory management system revenue by telecoms service, worldwide, Figure 11: Activation system revenue, worldwide, Figure 12: Activation system revenue by region, worldwide, Figure 13: Activation system revenue by telecoms service, worldwide, Figure 14: Engineering systems revenue, worldwide, Figure 15: Engineering systems revenue by region, worldwide, Figure 16: Engineering systems revenue by telecoms service, worldwide, Figure 17a c: Service fulfilment system market drivers Figure 18a b: Service fulfilment system market inhibitors Figure 19: Telecoms software market segments Figure 20: Definitions of service fulfilment and its sub-segments Figure 21: Order management system key functions Figure 22: Inventory management system key functions Figure 23: Activation system key functions Figure 24: Engineering systems key functions Figure 25: Service fulfilment service sector definitions Figure 26: Service fulfilment revenue type definitions Figure 27: Regional breakdown used in this report Figure 28: Mapping of key business drivers and market characteristics according to business environment, and operational and software strategies Figure 29: Key factors influencing forecast assumptions

5 29 Market drivers and inhibitors Drivers + Increasing subscriber numbers in emerging markets and for new-generation technology services Growth in the number of connected devices CSP initiatives to counter OTT services Take-up of M2M services New packet network technology deployments System convergence Investments in automation to reduce opex Double-sided business models Focus on enterprise and SME markets National broadband infrastructure stimulus programmes CSPs offering cloud services Inhibitors Continuing weak economic fundamentals Slow economic recovery undermining CSPs willingness to spend particularly in Europe The cost of converting established systems and data The simplicity of fulfilling new software-based services Operations outsourcing ISVs providing service fulfilment functions as SaaS CSPs focus on cost reduction

6 36 The business environment Economic recovery will drive growth in service fulfilment Spending on telecoms software returned to growth in 2013 when service fulfilment revenue grew by a healthy 7.2%, high for such a mature area of telecoms software. CSPs continued to try to reduce operational costs. Emerging markets in APAC, LATAM and EMEA produced most of the growth in the service fulfilment market. Some consolidation and transformation projects were reported in NA. Subscriber growth continued, but at a slowing rate. Evolution to IP-based networks and services will continue Voice, data and video services are all available over IP. NGN evolution continues in all CSPs, with moderate Class 5 switch migration. Deployment of FTTH continues slowly. The easier and more-flexible network planning, configuration, optimisation and quality-of-service management of IP networks is supporting a dramatic increase in the number and range of new services. CSPs are offering service-layer services (SDP, IP, and Ethernet) in increasingly complex personalised service bundles. LTE network roll-outs will continue worldwide LTE implementation will continue in APAC, Western Europe and the USA. Most CSPs in other markets will deploy LTE tactically, but will continue to use 3G+ and small-cell and Wi-Fi offload technologies to support growth in data services for the foreseeable future. Multimedia services delivered via fixed broadband, such as IPTV, VoIP and video conferencing, drove the need for higher-capacity NGA infrastructure, such as GPON and FTTx, and the service fulfilment functions to support them. CSPs are diversifying to generate new business Mobile CSPs priority is to monetise the growth in mobile data services. They are also exploring M2M opportunities, partnering with automotive, utilities and e-health companies to establish new sales channels in previously unreached industries. Fixed network CSPs in developed markets continue to enter the video market, and to implement network APIs and developer ecosystems to create new services. Cable CSPs are focusing more on SMEs, and are driving an increase in VoIP penetration.

7 51 Executive summary Key implications Forecasts Market drivers and inhibitors Business environment Market definition About the authors and Analysys Mason

8 52 About the authors Mark H. Mortensen (Practice Head) is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason s Customer Care, Service Fulfilment and Digital Economy Software Strategies research programmes, which are part of the Telecoms Software research stream. His interest areas include customer self-service, new telco businesses entering the digital economy value chain, and network planning and optimisation. The first 20 years of Mark s career were at Bell Laboratories, where he distinguished himself by starting software products for new markets and network technologies and designing the interaction of BSS/OSSs with the underlying network hardware. Mark was Chief Scientist of Management Systems at Bell Labs, and has also been president of his own OSS strategy consulting company, CMO at the inventory specialist Granite Systems, VP of Product Strategy at Telcordia Technologies, and SVP of Marketing at a network planning software vendor. Mark holds an MPhil and a PhD in physics from Yale University and has received two AT&T Architecture awards for innovative software solutions. He is also an adjunct professor at UMass Lowell in the Manning School of Management, specialising in business strategy. Mark has also participated on the GSMA Global Mobile Awards judging panel. Dean Ramsay (Senior Analyst) is a member of Analysys Mason s Telecoms Software research team. He leads the Telecoms Software Forecasts and Market Shares programmes, and project manages and contributes to the CSP IT Strategies and Service Fulfilment research programmes. He has 12 years experience in the telecoms industry, working in operations and service delivery with major Tier 1 and smaller Tier 2 carriers, focusing on order management, revenue management and service delivery systems. Dean joined Analysys Mason in 2011 following two years working as an analyst in the mobile sector. Dean holds a BA in English from Anglia Ruskin University.

9 53 About Analysys Mason Knowing what s going on is one thing. Understanding how to take advantage of events is quite another. Our ability to understand the complex workings of telecoms, media and technology (TMT) industries and draw practical conclusions, based on the specialist knowledge of our people, is what sets Analysys Mason apart. We deliver our key services via two channels: consulting and research. Consulting Our focus is exclusively on TMT. We support multi-billion dollar investments, advise clients on regulatory matters, provide spectrum valuation and auction support, and advise on operational performance, business planning and strategy. We have developed rigorous methodologies that deliver tangible results for clients around the world. For more information, please visit Research We analyse, track and forecast the different services accessed by consumers and enterprises, as well as the software, infrastructure and technology delivering those services. Research clients benefit from regular and timely intelligence in addition to direct access to our team of expert analysts. Our dedicated Custom Research team undertakes specialised and bespoke projects for clients. For more information, please visit

10 54 Research from Analysys Mason We provide dedicated coverage of developments in the telecoms, media and technology (TMT) sectors, through a range of research programmes that focus on different services and regions of the world. Alongside our standardised suite of research programmes, our Custom Research team undertakes specialised, bespoke research projects for clients. The dedicated team offers tailored investigations and answers complex questions on markets, competitors and services with customised industry intelligence and insights. To find out more, please visit

11 55 Consulting from Analysys Mason For more than 25 years, our consultants have been bringing the benefits of applied intelligence to enable clients around the world to make the most of their opportunities. Our clients in the telecoms, media and technology (TMT) sectors operate in dynamic markets where change is constant. We help shape their understanding of the future so they can thrive in these demanding conditions. To do that, we have developed rigorous methodologies that deliver real results for clients around the world. Our focus is exclusively on TMT. We advise clients on regulatory matters, help shape spectrum policy and develop spectrum strategy, support multi-billion dollar investments, advise on operational performance and develop new business strategies. Such projects result in a depth of knowledge and a range of expertise that sets us apart. We help clients solve their most pressing problems, enabling them to go farther, faster and achieve their commercial objectives. To find out more, please visit

12 Published by Analysys Mason Limited Bush House North West Wing Aldwych London WC2B 4PJ UK Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) Registered in England No All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher. Figures and projections contained in this report are based on publicly available information only and are produced by the Research Division of Analysys Mason Limited independently of any clientspecific work within Analysys Mason Limited. The opinions expressed are those of the stated authors only. Analysys Mason Limited recognises that many terms appearing in this report are proprietary; all such trademarks are acknowledged and every effort has been made to indicate them by the normal UK publishing practice of capitalisation. However, the presence of a term, in whatever form, does not affect its legal status as a trademark. Analysys Mason Limited maintains that all reasonable care and skill have been used in the compilation of this publication. However, Analysys Mason Limited shall not be under any liability for loss or damage (including consequential loss) whatsoever or howsoever arising as a result of the use of this publication by the customer, his servants, agents or any third party.

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