1226A: ique on IBM BlueMix can increase your TM1 forecast accuracy. Michael Cowie Dallas Crawford QueBIT Consulting, LLC

Transcription

1 1226A: ique on IBM BlueMix can increase your TM1 forecast accuracy Michael Cowie Dallas Crawford QueBIT Consulting, LLC

2 Presenting Today Mike Cowie, Director of Strategic Solutions, Dallas Crawford, Senior Sales Executive, QueBIT 2 5/18/2017

3 Agenda About QueBIT What is ique? What are predictive demand planning & Euclid? How to get started with predictive solutions & ique Q & A 3 5/18/2017

4 What you will learn today 1. Learn about IBM BlueMix, web services and why we created the ique Connector 2. Learn how your forecasts can benefit from data science & predictive demand planning 3. Learn about QueBIT s Euclid engine and predictive solutions 4. Some demonstrations to show you what s possible 5. QueBIT s vision for the future: Integrating web services and other solutions with TM1 Leveraging advanced analytics in TM1 4 5/18/2017

5 Reach out to QueBIT at Vision On Twitter #askquebit Expo hall: Booth #11 More about ique/sign up for beta: Visit us on our IBM Vision 2017 page for more: 5 5/18/2017

6 About QueBIT 6 5/18/2017

7 About QueBIT Focused on all things Analytics Analytics Consulting Services Project Implementations Staff Augmentation/Managed Services Software Reseller and Development Company 16 years in business with managers on the team who have been working in analytics for 20+ years Operating Nationally in the United States of America 900+ successful implementations in finance, sales, marketing and operations (50+ new analytics implementations over the past 12 months) 400+ analytics customers; all industries 90 employees Development of Analytics Solutions such as Predictive Insurance Claims Subrogation, Predictive Demand Planning and Predictive Assortment Planning Delivering Analytics On-Premise and in The Cloud 7 5/18/2017

8 Trusted Experts in Analytics 8 5/18/2017

9 Financial & Operational Performance Management 50+ Financial Analytics Projects a year Delivered with IBM Planning Analytics/TM1 on Premise or in the Cloud Financial Consolidations and Reporting Revenue and Expense Planning Operations and Workforce Planning Capital Planning Profitability Analytics Etc. 9 5/18/2017

10 QueBIT FrameWORQ Solutions CloudWORQ: Pre-built TM1 solutions designed to integrate with TM1 Cloud, based on proven QueBIT TM1 models, such as expense, workforce & sales planning ControlWORQ: Excel & Web-based Financial Consolidations with TM1 (journals, eliminations, etc) ReportWORQ: Report bursting and distribution solution for TM1 WebWORQ: Web application development for TM1, including dashboard and visualization capabilities 10 5/18/2017

11 Advanced Analytics Dozens of Predictive and Prescriptive Analytics project a year Dramatic ROI Solution Focus Galileo Predictive Demand Planning Orion Predictive Assortment Planning Athens Predictive Claims Subrogation Predictive Price Optimization IOT Analytics Predictive Maintenance Predictive Customer Intelligence Scheduling Optimization Data Scientist for Rent! 11 5/18/2017

12 BI and Data Management Cognos Analytics Reporting & Analysis Dashboarding KPIs/Scorecards Production Reporting Sales Supply Chain Operations 75% of clients now claim they are moving to Mobile BI Data Warehousing and Big Data QueBIT can help with Data Strategy 12 5/18/2017

13 What is ique 13 5/18/2017

14 What can we see & do from a TM1 Server? Flat Files Java Extensions ODBC & ODBO Cloud & On Prem On Prem Only TM1 Execute Command TM1 Views/Subsets Package Connector 14 5/18/2017

15 But what about? Non-ODBC data sources External applications & services: Data Weather, Markets, Twitter, etc. External applications & services Watson, Messaging, Monitoring Anything found in IBM BlueMix & similar platforms /18/2017

16 TM1 REST API 3 rd Party SDKs, APIs, etc. What is ique 16 5/18/2017

17 What is ique Wizards to help define connections & mappings between TM1 instances and 3 rd party services Connectors that can be used to execute those saved connection and mapping definitions Current support for: QueBIT s time series forecasting engine (Euclid) SMS messaging Future support: Customer requests/demand (e.g., Watson & other BlueMix services) 17 5/18/2017

18 Demo Texting while TM1 ing 18 5/18/2017

19 What is Predictive Demand Planning? 19 5/18/2017

20 What is Predictive Demand Planning? Collaboration of data science (predictive modeling/forecasting), sales, inventory management and finance Data science driven forecasts that maximize accuracy by leveraging causal data Forecast Value Add metrics/alerts that identify potential issues quickly/efficiently Collaborative environment where sales, inventory management and finance can work together to optimize inventory levels, model P&L impacts and perform what if scenario testing 20 5/18/2017

21 Why would you need predictive demand planning? Traditional Demand Planning Solutions: Are based on naïve seasonality and trend forecasting techniques and do not include causal data such as weather, pricing, promotions, macro-economics effects Struggle with new items Struggle with low velocity items Present difficulties with changing drivers and structures within database Are not interactive and do not allow for what if scenario testing Are not truly collaborative: sales, IM and finance 21 5/18/2017

22 QueBIT s Unique Approach to Forecasting 22 5/18/2017

23 QueBIT s Unique Approach to Forecasting Product sales by month how do predictive and traditional tools compare? 23 5/18/2017

24 QueBIT s Unique Approach to Forecasting Seasonality can be extracted by removing the overall trend 24 5/18/2017

25 QueBIT s Unique Approach to Forecasting The trend is decidedly non-linear and drops off dramatically in /18/2017

26 QueBIT s Unique Approach to Forecasting But other forecasting tools assume linearity and would create a trend below (and then layer on seasonality) 26 5/18/2017

27 QueBIT s Unique Approach to Forecasting The sales trend is highly correlated with overall marketing spend therefore, we want to predict the past (and future) demand trend using marketing spend (and other predictors) 27 5/18/2017

28 QueBIT s Unique Approach to Forecasting Our approach generates a more realistic forecast by incorporating causal data (such as marketing spend) 28 5/18/2017

29 What is Euclid? 29 5/18/2017

30 What is Euclid? Euclid is QueBIT s native Java predictive modeling engine Extremely high performance (multi-threaded) Contains proven, unique QueBIT intellectual property (based on deep knowledge of data science) REST API that can be leveraged by TM1 using ique 30 5/18/2017

31 What is Euclid? Algorithms supported: Forecasting: Seasonal Forecasting Model with Causal Predictors ARIMA Clustering/Segmentation: KMeans (with automatic # of clusters optimization) KMedians Predictive Modeling: Multiple Linear Regression RandomForest C5 Decision Trees Logistic Regression Deep Neural Networks Text Mining: Latent Dirichlet Analysis (aka Topic Modeling) 31 5/18/2017

32 What is Euclid? Availability: On-premise Hosted pay-as-you-go service 32 5/18/2017

33 Demo Call the Euclid Predictive Demand Planning Engine from TM1 33 5/18/2017

34 What did you just see? A set of dashboard pages created in Planning Analytics Workspace (PAW) How we define mappings from existing TM1 models to Euclid Execution of a pre-defined ique package that calls QueBIT s Euclid predictive demand planning engine: Approximately 100,000 data points consisting of historical weekly data (going back 2 year) and predictors (unit price, ad & digital spend) extracted from TM1 and sent to Euclid Euclid returned predictive forecast for the next 52 weeks along with a lower and upper confidence interval for the same period, which was then loaded into TM1 Increased digital ad spend by 400%, re-ran Euclid prediction to see impact 34 5/18/2017

35 Questions? On Twitter #askquebit Expo hall: Booth #11 More about ique/sign up for beta: Visit us on our IBM Vision 2017 page for more: /18/2017

36 Thank You! Other Sessions with QueBIT :15am): Leveraging Planning Analytics & CDM to streamline Financial Reporting and improve Budgeting at Stein Mart :00pm): Prescriptive Analytics & CPLEX Decision Optimization and TM1 Dashboard: Combined Planning Power at JLG Industries :15am): Auditable Financial System for Government Contracting at Accenture Federal Serv :45am): Planning Analytics: Working Alongside Hyperion for Operational Analytics at NiSource ices :45am): Leveraging TM1 for Merchandise Planning at Tractor Supply Company Be sure to stop by and visit us at Booth #11 and Visit us on our IBM Vision 2017 page for more: