Evaluation of Machine Learning Algorithms for Satellite Operations Support

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Evaluation of Machine Learning Algorithms for Satellite Operations Support Julian Spencer-Jones, Spacecraft Engineer Telenor Satellite AS Greg Adamski, Member of

1 Evaluation of Machine Learning Algorithms for Satellite Operations Support Julian Spencer-Jones, Spacecraft Engineer Telenor Satellite AS Greg Adamski, Member of Technical Staff L3 Technologies Telemetry and RF Products 2017 by L3 Technologies and Telenor Satellite AS. Published by The Aerospace Corporation with permission.

2 Agenda Goals and background Machine learning tools overview Archiving subsystem ease of data access Machine learning for telemetry data - concepts Analyzing data from Telenor fleet: techniques, algorithms and results Lessons learned and future development

3 Problem statement and background Goal: predict battery voltage levels through eclipse season to prevent a catastrophic power failure. We will be analyzing data from the past 7 years and using machine learning algorithms to attempt a realistic prediction. Secondary goal: gain experience in machine learning algorithms and their applicability to satellite telemetry data analysis. Ease of use of the algorithm was of paramount importance: Quick implementation Results that can be explained Good defaults and as little requirement on data preparation as possible Lack of data science background the work was done by a Satellite Engineer and a Software Engineer We expect this is true for many organizations

4 Tools Machine learning - scikit-learn: open source library for machine learning - Powerful and includes a wide range of algorithms and tools - Used for all the work in this project scikit-learn NumPy SciPy matplotlib Python Many alternatives available in a variety of languages (not tested) Especially in Python and R Also: TensorFlow (Google), Theano, Keras Including cloud based like Amazon AI

5 Data Storage Nebula Archiver From proprietary to open Legacy archiving based on closed, proprietary file formats Data access possible only through proprietary APIs or GUIs Nebula Archiver power to the user Based on Cassandra No-SQL database (other DBs supported as needed) Almost unlimited scalability Lightning fast data access Data laid out to match typical access patterns Ease of access just a few lines of python code needed to retrieve and plot data Easily accessible from any programming platform

6 Nebula Archiver high level architecture Real time feed from operational fleet InControl Real time data Cassandra Driver CQL Calls Historical reports Happy operator Historical data for analytics Legacy Data Store Source reader 3 rd party data source Nebula Importer Data Updates Cassandra Cluster Nebula Archiver Data access for ML Machine Learning/ Analytics Tools Other system Data Updates/Import

7 Nebula Archiver - Benefits For the operator Quick overview of large portions of data [view 1 year of data in as little as a few seconds] Reporting has no impact on the real time processing For the engineer Very fast and simple access to stored data using open tools (python/java/js) Use analytical tools without impacting the real time system Almost unlimited scalability For the manager Happy operator/engineer Reduced hardware cost and ability to expand storage subsystem as needs grow

8 Machine learning - concepts Machine learning: data analytics technique that uses historical data to predict future system behavior Supervised learning: using previously collected labeled data (classification) or numerical values (regression) to predict system behavior in new circumstances Unsupervised learning: using unlabeled data to infer system behavior (e.g. clustering) Classification: Automatic assignment of an event to a class based on historical data and other inputs Overfitting: learning the underlying data vs. trends in the data

9 Regression Algorithms Several different regression algorithms were tested: Linear regression stochastic gradient descent State vector machine linear, polynomial and radial basis function Random forest extra trees regressor Extra trees regressor produced the best results in most cases tested, especially for time series. SVM RBF is faster and sometimes a good alternative.

10 Regression Use Cases Monitoring battery cell voltage through eclipse seasons. Dynamic limits potentially used for any predictable telemetry point. Predicting the attitude disturbance of momentum wheel unloads. Based on the momentum stored on the wheels.

11 Regression Example Battery Cell Voltages Training - Input: - Voltage parameters at the beginning of the eclipse season - Up to 15 days taken into account - Calculated daily average for each of the input parameters - Day of the eclipse season - Predicted duration of eclipse - Output - Battery cell voltage for each day of the eclipse season Cross-validation: - One (or more) seasons set aside to validate model performance

12 Regression Example Battery Cell Voltages More varied seasons, better predictions No model has previously been found to reliably predict them.

13 Regression Example Battery Cell Voltages Model does not does not extrapolate well to new curves

14 Regression Example Battery Cell Voltages Using data collected for a number of days into the eclipse season allows the model to re-align

15 Regression Example Dynamic Limits Predicts the trends ahead and sets limits. Prediction accuracy deteriorates with time. More work needed to reduce false alarms.

16 Other research - classification Monitoring battery charging Supervised training used to identify nominal charge characteristics for the various modes and states. More work is needed for a useful tool. Identifying anomalous behaviour Successfully identifies known anomalies. Other methods are more practical. Not enough events for thorough training.

17 Lessons Learned and Future Directions Lessons Learned: Challenge is to define the task and preprocess data. Some useful tools developed. Too few anomalies. Hard to train algorithms without failures. Future Development: Expand and improve current tools - Plenty of other potential applications Anomaly detection - Dynamic limits, out of family behaviour, component degradation Investigate techniques for more general learning

18 Questions?

19 Thank You!

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