Future business models for NGA success

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1 Research report Future business models for NGA success Richard Thurston January 2010

2 Published by Analysys Mason Limited Bush House North West Wing Aldwych London WC2B 4PJ UK Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) Registered in England No Analysys Mason Limited 2010 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior written permission of the publisher. ISBN

3 Contents 0 Summary vi 1 A broad range of telco and non-telco players will deliver NGA 1 2 Telcos have the scale and brand to exploit NGA 3 3 Cablecos will benefit from fast, cheap upgrades and channel bonding 8 4 Energy suppliers will become serious players in some countries 14 5 Public funding will distort the broadband market 19 6 Private wholesale-only players will survive in high-arpu markets 23 7 New market entrants may struggle to make an impact 27 8 Cable operators will seize the window of opportunity 30 Key to acronyms 35 Research from Analysys Mason 36 Consulting from Analysys Mason 37 List of Figures and Tables Figure 0.1: Broadband market share by type of operator in Western Europe, vii Table 2.1: SWOT analysis incumbent telcos 3 Table 3.1: SWOT analysis cable operators 8 Figure 3.1: Typical headline speeds offered by telcos and cablecos in developed markets, Table 4.1: SWOT analysis energy suppliers 14 Table 5.1: SWOT analysis publicly funded NGA 19 Table 5.2: Policy approaches and likely beneficiaries 21 Table 5.3: Examples of publicly funded NGA roll-outs 22 Table 6.1: SWOT analysis private wholesale players 23 Analysys Mason Limited 2010 Contents

4 iv Future business models for NGA success Figure 6.1: Two likely models for wholesale-only access led by the private sector 24 Table 7.1: SWOT analysis new market entrants 27 Table 8.1: Typical highest-speed Internet offerings from telcos and cable operators and their effect on churn, Western Europe 31 Figure 8.1: Broadband market share by type of operator in Western Europe, Author Richard Thurston (Analyst) is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason s Fixed Networks research programme, and is responsible for writing a broad range of reports, analysis and insight. He also covers topics such as business services, mobile broadband, convergence, and voice. Prior to joining Analysys Mason, he worked as a freelance business technology journalist, writing news articles and features on telecoms and IT for publications such as Mobile Europe, The Register, Total Telecom and ZDNet. Prior to that, Richard was News Editor of ZDNet and Editor of Communications News. He has a first degree in Mathematics and Operational Research, and a postgraduate qualification in Economics and Econometrics, from the University of Exeter. Acknowledgements The author would like to thank all those who assisted in the preparation of this report: Anders Hillbur, Head of Broadband Access, Ericsson; Todd Kessler, VP of Product Management, ARRIS; Henrique Rosado, Investor Relations, ZON Multimedia; Christian Bakx, VP Product Management, UPC Broadband; Rolf Bive, Chief Technical Strategy Officer, GET; Ronny Lorentzen, Systems Manager, and Dagfinn Wåge, Chief Innovation Officer, Altibox; and Adrian Crook, Commercial Director, Fibrecity. The author would also like to thank the following colleagues from Analysys Mason: Rupert Wood for reviewing; Cesar Bachelet, Franck Chevalier, Mark Main, Rod Parker and Martin Scott for invaluable insight; and Sarah Peake for editorial support. Disclaimer Figures and projections contained in this report are based on publicly available information only and are produced by the Research Division of Analysys Mason Limited independently of any client-specific work within Analysys Mason Limited. The opinions expressed are those of the stated authors only. Analysys Mason Limited recognises that many terms appearing in this report are proprietary; all such trademarks are acknowledged and every effort has been made to indicate them by the normal UK publishing practice of capitalisation. However, the presence of a term, in whatever form, does not affect its legal status as a trademark. Contents Analysys Mason Limited 2010

5 Future business models for NGA success v Analysys Mason Limited maintains that all reasonable care and skill have been used in the compilation of this publication. However, Analysys Mason Limited shall not be under any liability for loss or damage (including consequential loss) whatsoever or howsoever arising as a result of the use of this publication by the customer, his servants, agents or any third party. Analysys Mason Limited 2010 Contents

6 Research from Analysys Mason Analysys Mason provides a portfolio of subscription research services that help organisations to understand major strategic shifts, as well as country- and region-specific trends, in the global telecoms industry. Through a combination of granular market data and forecasts, and independent qualitative analysis and insight, we enable clients to make informed strategic and tactical decisions, reduce risk and benchmark their business performance. Split across three research streams, which cover telecoms operators, services, markets, software and networks, the research programmes provide a range of deliverables during a typical 12-month subscription period. Analysys Mason s subscription research portfolio Research streams Operators, Services and Markets Research programmes Voice Mobile Broadband Mobile Content and Applications Fixed Broadband Enterprise Global Growth Markets Telecoms Market Matrix Core Forecasts Country Reports Telecoms Software Service Assurance Billing and Customer Care Service Fulfilment Telecoms Software Market Shares SDP Strategies Telecoms Software Strategies Telecoms Software Forecasts Infrastructure Solutions Telecoms Networks Wireless Networks Fixed Networks In addition to its subscription-based content, Analysys Mason also offers a custom research service, which helps clients to answer specific questions. For more information about our subscription research programmes and custom research services, please visit Research from Analysys Mason Analysys Mason Limited 2010

7 Consulting from Analysys Mason Analysys Mason offers consulting services that span the entire business development cycle from strategy development, through planning and implementation, to review. We help clients in the public and private sectors to make the best possible business decisions on many key issues, including investment, strategy, policy, procurement, network roll-out and market entry. Analysys Mason advises clients in many industry sectors Mobile operators Delivering value through strategy planning and implementation Media companies Helping to maximise revenue in converging markets Public sector organisations Providing ICT and procurement advice for emergency services and public bodies Regulators Establishing and implementing policy frameworks in telecoms and media markets Enterprise users Helping to maximise returns from investment in ICT Financial institutions Supporting vendors, sellers and financiers of industry transactions Fixed operators Defining new strategies, optimising service portfolios and supporting policy development For more than 20 years, Analysys Mason has been working with a range of global clients to resolve business-critical issues by applying its intellectual rigour, passion and expertise. For more information about our consulting services, please visit Analysys Mason Limited 2010 Consulting from Analysys Mason

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