U.S. Lodging Industry 2017

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1 U.S. Lodging Industry 2017 Record Fundamentals; Declining Growth Yet Growth Nonetheless; Yields:?????? Presented by: Daniel Lesser, President & CEO LW Hospitality Advisors 200 West 41 st Street, Suite 805 New York, NY USA (212) X101 November 15, 2017

2 U.S. Lodging Industry: October 2016 Cautious Optimism LW Hospitality Advisors Page 2

3 U.S. Lodging Industry: November 2017 Cautious Optimism LW Hospitality Advisors Page 3

4 U.S. Hotel Industry Macro Overview Economy Jobs 1/1/2009 1/1/ /1/2017 Contracting Declining Expanding (Slowly) Increasing (Slowly) Expanding Increasing Consumer Spending Declining Increasing Increasing Business Spending Declining Increasing Increasing Supply Growth Accelerating Muted Accelerating Room Night Demand Declining Record Levels Continued Record Levels U.S. Hotel Performance Projected 2017 Projected 2018 Supply 2.6% 3.2% 2.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.7% 0.9% 1.1% 1.6% 2.0% 2.1% Demand 1.9% 5.8% 7.8% 5.0% 3.0% 2.2% 4.5% 2.9% 1.7% 2.0% 1.9% Occupancy 4.4% 8.7% 5.7% 4.4% 2.5% 1.5% 3.6% 1.7% 0.1% FLAT 0.2% ADR 2.7% 8.8% 0.1% 3.7% 4.2% 3.9% 4.6% 4.4% 3.1% 2.3% 2.5% RevPAR 1.8% 16.7% 5.5% 8.2% 6.8% 5.4% 8.3% 6.3% 3.2% 2.3% 2.3% Source: STR, Inc. LW Hospitality Advisors Page 4

5 Random Dan Lesser Thoughts Hotels are fundamentally long term hold assets Generally, from 2015 peak hotel values today: best flat; worst down 10% New supply issues, if any, are submarket based Smart money seeking yield in secondary and tertiary plus markets OTA s are not partners for hotel industry Airbnb s claim of being a champion of the middle class is at best misleading Airbnb s accusation of hotel sector price gouging is disingenuous Lodging industry should follow airline sector unbundling of services and amenities Boycotting travel to U.S. is counterproductive LW Hospitality Advisors Page 5

6 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength Two consecutive years of industry record rooms revenue operating metrics LW Hospitality Advisors Page 6

7 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength USA: Freedom, safety, and security LW Hospitality Advisors Page 7

8 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength Increasing U.S. Gross Domestic Product LW Hospitality Advisors Page 8

9 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength Record U.S. stock market metrics LW Hospitality Advisors Page 9

10 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strengths Nation in second largest housing boom ever LW Hospitality Advisors Page 10

11 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strengths U.S. consumer confidence highest in 17 years LW Hospitality Advisors Page 11

12 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength Sector now a $200 billion industry LW Hospitality Advisors Page 12

13 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength U.S. hotel industry revenue & house profit reached all-time highs in 2016 LW Hospitality Advisors Page 13

14 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength Nation s demographic trends boosting demand for experiences over physical goods s LW Hospitality Advisors Page 14

15 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength Nationwide new hotel supply is not devastating LW Hospitality Advisors Page 15

16 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength Construction labor shortage LW Hospitality Advisors Page 16

17 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength Banks tighten construction lending standards LW Hospitality Advisors Page 17

18 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength Group meeting demand is growing LW Hospitality Advisors Page 18

19 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength Continued low interest and cap rate environment LW Hospitality Advisors Page 19

20 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength Abundant availability of debt and equity LW Hospitality Advisors Page 20

21 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength Continued strong pricing LW Hospitality Advisors Page 21

22 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength Technological advances = increased operating efficiencies LW Hospitality Advisors Page 22

23 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength Hotels are durable brick and mortar businesses LW Hospitality Advisors Page 23

24 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength H.R Save Local Business Act LW Hospitality Advisors Page 24

25 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength LW Hospitality Advisors Page 25

26 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength Airbnb impact and growth slowing LW Hospitality Advisors Page 26

27 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Weakness Fear of economic recession never far away LW Hospitality Advisors Page 27

28 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Weakness Strong (though softening) U.S. Dollar (Rapidly changing technology) LW Hospitality Advisors Page 28

29 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Weakness U.S. travel ban efforts create negative postures & restrictions (Rapidly changing technology) LW Hospitality Advisors Page 29

30 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Weakness China scrutiny of cross-border capital flows (Rapidly changing technology) LW Hospitality Advisors Page 30

31 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Weakness Lodging expansion now in its seventh year (Rapidly changing technology) LW Hospitality Advisors Page 31

32 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Weakness Slow RevPAR growth LW Hospitality Advisors Page 32

33 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Weakness More hotel brands REALLY? (Rapidly changing technology) LW Hospitality Advisors Page 33

34 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat LW Hospitality Advisors Page 34

35 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Weakness Airbnb now impacting business travel (Rapidly changing technology) LW Hospitality Advisors Page 35

36 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Weakness Airbnb launching premium service to compete with luxury hotels (Rapidly changing technology) LW Hospitality Advisors Page 36

37 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Weakness Target generational confusion (Rapidly changing technology) LW Hospitality Advisors Page 37

38 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Weakness OTA s now dominate consumer point of entry (Rapidly changing technology) LW Hospitality Advisors Page 38

39 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Weakness Inventory management challenges (Rapidly changing technology) LW Hospitality Advisors Page 39

40 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Weakness Industry labor shortage (Rapidly changing technology) LW Hospitality Advisors Page 40

41 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Weakness Strong influence of labor unions LW Hospitality Advisors Page 41

42 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Weakness Rising tax burdens (Rapidly changing technology) LW Hospitality Advisors Page 42

43 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Weakness Rising commercial property insurance rates (Rapidly changing technology) LW Hospitality Advisors Page 43

44 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Rising interest rates LW Hospitality Advisors Page 44

45 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Increasing political isolationism LW Hospitality Advisors Page 45

46 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Technology is diminishing importance of physical location and redefining social interaction LW Hospitality Advisors Page 46

47 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat NASA s supersonic transport LW Hospitality Advisors Page 47

48 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Hyperloop LW Hospitality Advisors Page 48

49 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Niido powered by Airbnb LW Hospitality Advisors Page 49

50 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat OTA s moves into hotel ownership LW Hospitality Advisors Page 50

51 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Resort fees back in the spotlight LW Hospitality Advisors Page 51

52 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Gatekeepers of technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 52

53 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat WeWork LW Hospitality Advisors Page 53

54 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Online hotel booking scams LW Hospitality Advisors Page 54

55 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Spread of contagious diseases LW Hospitality Advisors Page 55

56 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Terrorism LW Hospitality Advisors Page 56

57 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Geopolitical turbulence reaching a tipping point LW Hospitality Advisors Page 57

58 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Domestic political polarization LW Hospitality Advisors Page 58

59 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Cyberwarfare LW Hospitality Advisors Page 59

60 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Climatic events LW Hospitality Advisors Page 60

61 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Global Warming LW Hospitality Advisors Page 61

62 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Rising guest acquisition costs Source: Kalibri Labs LW Hospitality Advisors Page 62

63 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Technology is an enemy of ADR growth LW Hospitality Advisors Page 63

64 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Drive by lawsuits LW Hospitality Advisors Page 64

65 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Real time damage control LW Hospitality Advisors Page 65

66 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Movie theaters: alternate site for conferences LW Hospitality Advisors Page 66

67 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Blurring boundaries between work, play, and travel Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into experiential identities expanding into retail goods and other services No shortage of old functionally obsolete hotel product situated on excellent sites/locations Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 67

68 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Produce differentiated authentic unique experiences Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into experiential identities expanding into retail goods and other services No shortage of old functionally obsolete hotel product situated on excellent sites/locations Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 68

69 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Industry well positioned to react to any inflation Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into experiential identities expanding into retail goods and other services No shortage of old functionally obsolete hotel product situated on excellent sites/locations Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 69

70 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Benefits of potential tax reform Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into experiential identities expanding into retail goods and other services No shortage of old functionally obsolete hotel product situated on excellent sites/locations Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 70

71 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity 2018 corporate hotel rate negotiation equilibrium Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into experiential identities expanding into retail goods and other services No shortage of old functionally obsolete hotel product situated on excellent sites/locations Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 71

72 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Booking direct campaigns Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into experiential identities expanding into retail goods and other services No shortage of old functionally obsolete hotel product situated on excellent sites/locations Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 72

73 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Expansion of modular hotel construction Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into experiential identities expanding into retail goods and other services No shortage of old functionally obsolete hotel product situated on excellent sites/locations Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 73

74 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Develop co-working spaces within hotels Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into experiential identities expanding into retail goods and other services No shortage of old functionally obsolete hotel product situated on excellent sites/locations Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 74

75 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Expansion of lodging options Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into LW Hospitality Advisors Page 75

76 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Voice-enabled cognitive rooms Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into experiential identities expanding into retail goods and other services No shortage of old functionally obsolete hotel product situated on excellent sites/locations Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 76

77 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Use of big data Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into experiential identities expanding into retail goods and other services No shortage of old functionally obsolete hotel product situated on excellent sites/locations Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 77

78 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Late cancellation fees Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 78

79 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Availability of smart hotel centric private equity Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 79

80 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Multi-brand facilities Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 80

81 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity On demand model Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 81

82 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Mergers & Acquisitions and spinoffs : Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry LW Hospitality Advisors Page 82

83 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Venture capital execution Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into experiential identities expanding into retail goods and other services No shortage of old functionally obsolete hotel product situated on excellent sites/locations Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 83

84 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Houston, New York City, & Amazon HQ2 City Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 84

85 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Unbundling hotel services Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into experiential identities expanding into retail goods and other services No shortage of old functionally obsolete hotel product situated on excellent sites/locations Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 85

86 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Increased Airbnb regulation LW Hospitality Advisors Page 86

87 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Secondary and tertiary markets Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into experiential identities expanding into retail goods and other services No shortage of old functionally obsolete hotel product situated on excellent sites/locations Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 87

88 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Post hurricane rebuilding Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into experiential identities expanding into retail goods and other services No shortage of old functionally obsolete hotel product situated on excellent sites/locations Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 88

89 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Israel bond market: liquidity & low cost of capital Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into experiential identities expanding into retail goods and other services No shortage of old functionally obsolete hotel product situated on excellent sites/locations Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 89

90 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Demise of telecommuting Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into experiential identities expanding into retail goods and other services No shortage of old functionally obsolete hotel product situated on excellent sites/locations Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 90

91 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Expansion of hotel branding to yachts and jets Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases LW Hospitality Advisors Page 91

92 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Solar power: viable, affordable, alternative resource Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into experiential identities expanding into retail goods and other services No shortage of old functionally obsolete hotel product situated on excellent sites/locations Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 92

93 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Theft protection Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 93

94 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Unmanned aerial vehicles ( Drones) Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 94

95 Final Thought: Moderate Uncertainty LW Hospitality Advisors Page 95

96 U.S. Lodging Industry 2017 Record Fundamentals; Declining Growth Yet Growth Nonetheless; Yields: Cautious Optimism Presented by: Daniel Lesser, President & CEO LW Hospitality Advisors 200 West 41 st Street, Suite 805 New York, NY USA (212) X101 November 15, 2017

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