U.S. Lodging Industry 2017
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1 U.S. Lodging Industry 2017 Record Fundamentals; Declining Growth Yet Growth Nonetheless; Yields:?????? Presented by: Daniel Lesser, President & CEO LW Hospitality Advisors 200 West 41 st Street, Suite 805 New York, NY USA (212) X101 November 15, 2017
2 U.S. Lodging Industry: October 2016 Cautious Optimism LW Hospitality Advisors Page 2
3 U.S. Lodging Industry: November 2017 Cautious Optimism LW Hospitality Advisors Page 3
4 U.S. Hotel Industry Macro Overview Economy Jobs 1/1/2009 1/1/ /1/2017 Contracting Declining Expanding (Slowly) Increasing (Slowly) Expanding Increasing Consumer Spending Declining Increasing Increasing Business Spending Declining Increasing Increasing Supply Growth Accelerating Muted Accelerating Room Night Demand Declining Record Levels Continued Record Levels U.S. Hotel Performance Projected 2017 Projected 2018 Supply 2.6% 3.2% 2.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.7% 0.9% 1.1% 1.6% 2.0% 2.1% Demand 1.9% 5.8% 7.8% 5.0% 3.0% 2.2% 4.5% 2.9% 1.7% 2.0% 1.9% Occupancy 4.4% 8.7% 5.7% 4.4% 2.5% 1.5% 3.6% 1.7% 0.1% FLAT 0.2% ADR 2.7% 8.8% 0.1% 3.7% 4.2% 3.9% 4.6% 4.4% 3.1% 2.3% 2.5% RevPAR 1.8% 16.7% 5.5% 8.2% 6.8% 5.4% 8.3% 6.3% 3.2% 2.3% 2.3% Source: STR, Inc. LW Hospitality Advisors Page 4
5 Random Dan Lesser Thoughts Hotels are fundamentally long term hold assets Generally, from 2015 peak hotel values today: best flat; worst down 10% New supply issues, if any, are submarket based Smart money seeking yield in secondary and tertiary plus markets OTA s are not partners for hotel industry Airbnb s claim of being a champion of the middle class is at best misleading Airbnb s accusation of hotel sector price gouging is disingenuous Lodging industry should follow airline sector unbundling of services and amenities Boycotting travel to U.S. is counterproductive LW Hospitality Advisors Page 5
6 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength Two consecutive years of industry record rooms revenue operating metrics LW Hospitality Advisors Page 6
7 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength USA: Freedom, safety, and security LW Hospitality Advisors Page 7
8 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength Increasing U.S. Gross Domestic Product LW Hospitality Advisors Page 8
9 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength Record U.S. stock market metrics LW Hospitality Advisors Page 9
10 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strengths Nation in second largest housing boom ever LW Hospitality Advisors Page 10
11 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strengths U.S. consumer confidence highest in 17 years LW Hospitality Advisors Page 11
12 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength Sector now a $200 billion industry LW Hospitality Advisors Page 12
13 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength U.S. hotel industry revenue & house profit reached all-time highs in 2016 LW Hospitality Advisors Page 13
14 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength Nation s demographic trends boosting demand for experiences over physical goods s LW Hospitality Advisors Page 14
15 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength Nationwide new hotel supply is not devastating LW Hospitality Advisors Page 15
16 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength Construction labor shortage LW Hospitality Advisors Page 16
17 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength Banks tighten construction lending standards LW Hospitality Advisors Page 17
18 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength Group meeting demand is growing LW Hospitality Advisors Page 18
19 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength Continued low interest and cap rate environment LW Hospitality Advisors Page 19
20 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength Abundant availability of debt and equity LW Hospitality Advisors Page 20
21 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength Continued strong pricing LW Hospitality Advisors Page 21
22 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength Technological advances = increased operating efficiencies LW Hospitality Advisors Page 22
23 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength Hotels are durable brick and mortar businesses LW Hospitality Advisors Page 23
24 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength H.R Save Local Business Act LW Hospitality Advisors Page 24
25 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength LW Hospitality Advisors Page 25
26 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Strength Airbnb impact and growth slowing LW Hospitality Advisors Page 26
27 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Weakness Fear of economic recession never far away LW Hospitality Advisors Page 27
28 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Weakness Strong (though softening) U.S. Dollar (Rapidly changing technology) LW Hospitality Advisors Page 28
29 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Weakness U.S. travel ban efforts create negative postures & restrictions (Rapidly changing technology) LW Hospitality Advisors Page 29
30 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Weakness China scrutiny of cross-border capital flows (Rapidly changing technology) LW Hospitality Advisors Page 30
31 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Weakness Lodging expansion now in its seventh year (Rapidly changing technology) LW Hospitality Advisors Page 31
32 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Weakness Slow RevPAR growth LW Hospitality Advisors Page 32
33 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Weakness More hotel brands REALLY? (Rapidly changing technology) LW Hospitality Advisors Page 33
34 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat LW Hospitality Advisors Page 34
35 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Weakness Airbnb now impacting business travel (Rapidly changing technology) LW Hospitality Advisors Page 35
36 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Weakness Airbnb launching premium service to compete with luxury hotels (Rapidly changing technology) LW Hospitality Advisors Page 36
37 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Weakness Target generational confusion (Rapidly changing technology) LW Hospitality Advisors Page 37
38 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Weakness OTA s now dominate consumer point of entry (Rapidly changing technology) LW Hospitality Advisors Page 38
39 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Weakness Inventory management challenges (Rapidly changing technology) LW Hospitality Advisors Page 39
40 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Weakness Industry labor shortage (Rapidly changing technology) LW Hospitality Advisors Page 40
41 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Weakness Strong influence of labor unions LW Hospitality Advisors Page 41
42 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Weakness Rising tax burdens (Rapidly changing technology) LW Hospitality Advisors Page 42
43 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Weakness Rising commercial property insurance rates (Rapidly changing technology) LW Hospitality Advisors Page 43
44 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Rising interest rates LW Hospitality Advisors Page 44
45 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Increasing political isolationism LW Hospitality Advisors Page 45
46 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Technology is diminishing importance of physical location and redefining social interaction LW Hospitality Advisors Page 46
47 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat NASA s supersonic transport LW Hospitality Advisors Page 47
48 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Hyperloop LW Hospitality Advisors Page 48
49 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Niido powered by Airbnb LW Hospitality Advisors Page 49
50 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat OTA s moves into hotel ownership LW Hospitality Advisors Page 50
51 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Resort fees back in the spotlight LW Hospitality Advisors Page 51
52 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Gatekeepers of technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 52
53 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat WeWork LW Hospitality Advisors Page 53
54 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Online hotel booking scams LW Hospitality Advisors Page 54
55 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Spread of contagious diseases LW Hospitality Advisors Page 55
56 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Terrorism LW Hospitality Advisors Page 56
57 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Geopolitical turbulence reaching a tipping point LW Hospitality Advisors Page 57
58 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Domestic political polarization LW Hospitality Advisors Page 58
59 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Cyberwarfare LW Hospitality Advisors Page 59
60 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Climatic events LW Hospitality Advisors Page 60
61 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Global Warming LW Hospitality Advisors Page 61
62 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Rising guest acquisition costs Source: Kalibri Labs LW Hospitality Advisors Page 62
63 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Technology is an enemy of ADR growth LW Hospitality Advisors Page 63
64 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Drive by lawsuits LW Hospitality Advisors Page 64
65 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Real time damage control LW Hospitality Advisors Page 65
66 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Threat Movie theaters: alternate site for conferences LW Hospitality Advisors Page 66
67 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Blurring boundaries between work, play, and travel Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into experiential identities expanding into retail goods and other services No shortage of old functionally obsolete hotel product situated on excellent sites/locations Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 67
68 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Produce differentiated authentic unique experiences Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into experiential identities expanding into retail goods and other services No shortage of old functionally obsolete hotel product situated on excellent sites/locations Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 68
69 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Industry well positioned to react to any inflation Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into experiential identities expanding into retail goods and other services No shortage of old functionally obsolete hotel product situated on excellent sites/locations Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 69
70 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Benefits of potential tax reform Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into experiential identities expanding into retail goods and other services No shortage of old functionally obsolete hotel product situated on excellent sites/locations Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 70
71 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity 2018 corporate hotel rate negotiation equilibrium Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into experiential identities expanding into retail goods and other services No shortage of old functionally obsolete hotel product situated on excellent sites/locations Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 71
72 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Booking direct campaigns Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into experiential identities expanding into retail goods and other services No shortage of old functionally obsolete hotel product situated on excellent sites/locations Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 72
73 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Expansion of modular hotel construction Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into experiential identities expanding into retail goods and other services No shortage of old functionally obsolete hotel product situated on excellent sites/locations Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 73
74 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Develop co-working spaces within hotels Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into experiential identities expanding into retail goods and other services No shortage of old functionally obsolete hotel product situated on excellent sites/locations Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 74
75 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Expansion of lodging options Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into LW Hospitality Advisors Page 75
76 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Voice-enabled cognitive rooms Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into experiential identities expanding into retail goods and other services No shortage of old functionally obsolete hotel product situated on excellent sites/locations Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 76
77 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Use of big data Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into experiential identities expanding into retail goods and other services No shortage of old functionally obsolete hotel product situated on excellent sites/locations Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 77
78 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Late cancellation fees Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 78
79 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Availability of smart hotel centric private equity Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 79
80 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Multi-brand facilities Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 80
81 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity On demand model Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 81
82 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Mergers & Acquisitions and spinoffs : Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry LW Hospitality Advisors Page 82
83 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Venture capital execution Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into experiential identities expanding into retail goods and other services No shortage of old functionally obsolete hotel product situated on excellent sites/locations Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 83
84 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Houston, New York City, & Amazon HQ2 City Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 84
85 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Unbundling hotel services Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into experiential identities expanding into retail goods and other services No shortage of old functionally obsolete hotel product situated on excellent sites/locations Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 85
86 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Increased Airbnb regulation LW Hospitality Advisors Page 86
87 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Secondary and tertiary markets Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into experiential identities expanding into retail goods and other services No shortage of old functionally obsolete hotel product situated on excellent sites/locations Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 87
88 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Post hurricane rebuilding Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into experiential identities expanding into retail goods and other services No shortage of old functionally obsolete hotel product situated on excellent sites/locations Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 88
89 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Israel bond market: liquidity & low cost of capital Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into experiential identities expanding into retail goods and other services No shortage of old functionally obsolete hotel product situated on excellent sites/locations Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 89
90 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Demise of telecommuting Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into experiential identities expanding into retail goods and other services No shortage of old functionally obsolete hotel product situated on excellent sites/locations Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 90
91 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Expansion of hotel branding to yachts and jets Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases LW Hospitality Advisors Page 91
92 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Solar power: viable, affordable, alternative resource Rapidly changing technology Opportunities Industry well positioned to react to any inflationary increases Ancillary revenue opportunities similar to airline industry Hotel brands morph into experiential identities expanding into retail goods and other services No shortage of old functionally obsolete hotel product situated on excellent sites/locations Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 92
93 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Theft protection Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 93
94 U.S. Hotel Industry SWOT Analysis- Opportunity Unmanned aerial vehicles ( Drones) Rapidly changing technology LW Hospitality Advisors Page 94
95 Final Thought: Moderate Uncertainty LW Hospitality Advisors Page 95
96 U.S. Lodging Industry 2017 Record Fundamentals; Declining Growth Yet Growth Nonetheless; Yields: Cautious Optimism Presented by: Daniel Lesser, President & CEO LW Hospitality Advisors 200 West 41 st Street, Suite 805 New York, NY USA (212) X101 November 15, 2017
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