Building a Demand Forecasting Solution using IBM FOPM to improve Accuracy and Coverage. Financial & Operational Performance Management
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1 Building a Demand Forecasting Solution using IBM FOPM to improve Accuracy and Coverage Financial & Operational Performance Management 1
2 Agenda - Introduction - The Transformation project - Demand Forecasting - Challenges in the Status Quo - Solution - Benefits - Way Forward 2
3 About the pharma company Introduction - 2 Bn $ Indian Pharma company dealing in generic, branded and APIs - CAGR of 34% since last 5 years - 6th largest and the fastest growing Top 10 company in the US (by prescriptions), the only Asian company to achieve that distinction - Operating in advanced markets such as USA, Europe, Japan, Australia as well as emerging markets including India,the Philippines and South Africa to name a few. - One of the world's largest manufacturers of Tuberculosis drugs. - Goal of becoming a 5 Bn $ company by
4 About the company - Globally 6 th largest generic globally (by market cap 1 ) 9 th largest generic company (by sales 2 ) 3 rd largest Indian Pharma (by total sales 2 ) #1 in Anti-TB (globally) Advanced Markets Emerging Markets 5 th largest US (by prescriptions 3 ) 9 th largest Japanese generics 4 8 th India Pharma Market Rank 5 4 th largest South Africa generics 6 Sources: 1 Bloomberg EQS, 31 Dec Based on FY15 sales 3 IMS MAT Sep 15 4 IMS MAT Mar 15 5 IMS MAT Dec 15 6 IMS MAT Dec 15 4
5 The Need for Business Analytics 5 $2 Billion (2015) $5 Billion (2018) i. Increase Forecast Accuracy Scope for improvement in forecasting accuracy (increase by 12%) ii. Wider SKU Coverage Increase in coverage across SKUs (increase by 380%) iii. Concensus Forecasting Inclusion of majority stakeholders (increase by 1,900%) iv. Ground-level Intelligence Inclusion of Ground-level Intelligence input from field sales-force on a single platform 5
6 How it all started The Transformation - Keeping pace with the growth Excel was not scaling up - Acquisitions creating complexity - Group CFO formed a core cross functional team - The Planning Project - Consulting study by third party and introduction of demand forecasting - Demand forecasting Project 6
7 The Planning Process 7
8 Headquarters Branches Mumbai India DMCC Dubai UAE, Gurgaon India Management Incorporated in 2011 Employees Offerings Industries Global Presence Our Mission Our Differentiator 50+ Consulting professionals have expertise in IBM Cognos TM1, Cognos Express, Cognos BI and Cognos Planning. Planning Budgeting Forecasting Reporting Consolidation FMCG, Manufacturing, Pharma, Retail, BPO, BFSI, Technology, Insurance, Construction, Aviation and Telecom Middle East and APAC To maximize the ROI for customers by delivering end-to-end technology solutions with utmost quality and transparent communications, thereby building long lasting partnership. We stand for honesty in business Veracitiz 8
9 Awards & Accreditations Veracitiz at a Glance -- 1 st & only TM1 Gold Accredited Partner in South Asia -- IBM Business Analytics Partner of the Year 2015 & IBM Certified Consultants -- Tech agnostic Consultants with process-oriented approach -- Team of Masters of Computer Applications, Chartered Accountants, MBAs 9
10 The Golden Circle 10
11 Why? Understanding the Need to Introduce Business Analytics 11
12 The Company s Indian Operations The Need for Business Analytics 1 2 Stockist Universe: 3,875 (Active 2,200) Total Field Force: 6,814 Medical Rep: 5,349 Area Manager: 1,088 Regional Sales Manager: 304 Sales Manager: 67 National Sales Manager: 6 Business Divisions: 16 Invoices Per Month: 300,000 Warehouses: 7 CFA s: 32 Third Party Manufactures: 77 Loan License Manufactures: 22 Inlicense Vendors: 17 Own Plants: 3 Planning SKU s: Approx Fragmented transportation sector Taxation Structure 12
13 Demand Forecasting v1.0 The Need for Business Analytics 1 3 3m Historical Sales Salience Conference Calls Best estimate for 200 SKUs Demand Planner (spreadsheet-based collation) For 4 month forward forecast Reminder mails to contributors Meetings 13
14 Limitations of v1.0 The Need for Business Analytics 1 4 Human Dependency 200 SKUs out of 1,300 Time-consuming process (2 weeks) Loss of sale /High Inventory cost 27% gap in forecast 14
15 How? Blueprint for Process Re-engineering 15
16 Blueprint for Re-engineering + + Communication Application Forecasting Engine Data Warehouse 16
17 Integrated supply chain management Predictive forecasting Eliminating stock outs Direct integration increases the speed of what if predictive forecasting Predictive models are done at the lowest-level of granularity per product, but results are shown as aggregates by TM1 ie: bottom-up forecasting SPSS + TM1 direct integration is a competitive differentiator SPSS performs unique algorithm predictive models per product, channel, etc. as each product behavior is different Measure of accuracy IBM FOPM Solution (IBM TM1 & IBM SPSS) Operational external factors can be introduced Results map directly into dimensional data of a TM1 cube 17
18 Demand Forecasting v2.0 18
19 IBM FOPM Solution SAP BW 60 months' historical data of Normal Sales & Free Schemes, imported from SAP, at a Customer-SKU level. Historical data with latest mappings as well as free schemes calendar as an input for IBM Cognos SPSS statistical forecasting. Statistical forecast predicted based on historical sales trend. SKU-Division and Customer- CFA-Region-Division latest mapping imported from SAP. Publish Statistical Forecast, on which Demand Planner performs outlier check to disseminate Baseline Forecast for field user intelligence input. Forecast data at CFA-level, SKU-wise week-wise, published as a feed for SAP. Every user, in ascending order of hierarchy (beginning with RSM) reviews the forecast for each role/region mapped to him, and makes changes to the same, if necessary. Corporate & field budget data excel import into TM 1. After field users enter inputs upto cut-off date, DPT will review the baseline and make changes wherever requried in a top-down Final data at RSM-CFA level, disaggregated into weekly buckets on the basis of past 6 months moving avg. sales salience. Reports 19
20 What? Benefits of the implementation 20
21 Easy to use 6-step Forecast Control Center 21
22 Thoughtfully Designed Contributor Application 22
23 Additional Offline Connectivity 23
24 Optimizing Turbointegrator Processes IRF Divisions Region-CFA Div-Reg-CFA IRF 16 Combinations 560 Combinations 16,800 Combinations 24
25 Optimizing Turbointegrator Processes IRF Divisions Region-CFA Improvement 15 seconds Div-Reg-CFA Traditional 20 minutes 25
26 Post-Implementation Benefits Column1 Prior to Implementation Post Implementation Tool Legacy Excel Sheets Marriage of IBM Cognos IBM FOPM TM1 Solution & IBM SPSS Statistics Stakeholders DPT, GPMs, DHs (~15 persons) DPT, GPMs, DHs, SMs, RSMs (~300 persons) Method of Collaboration , Meetings, Conference Calls etc. 1 Single web-based Application (Contributor) Single Version of Plan No Yes Forecast Generation Time ~2 weeks ~2 hours SKUs forecasted ~200 ~1,300 Forecast-level National-level Lowest-level of granularity Forecast-Accuracy ~72% ~85% 26
27 The Road Ahead Demand Forecasting Incentives Manpower Capex Manufacturing Advanced Markets 27
28 Nishant Vyas IBM Sales Leader Roscoe Lobo Consultant Veracitiz
29 Thank You. Your Feedback is Important! Nishant Vyas Roscoe Lobo
30 Acknowledgments, disclaimers and trademarks Copyright IBM Corporation 2015/2016. All rights reserved. The information contained in this publication is provided for informational purposes only. While efforts were made to verify the completeness and accuracy of the information contained in this publication, it is provided AS IS without warranty of any kind, express or implied. In addition, this information is based on IBM s current product plans and strategy, which are subject to change by IBM without notice. IBM shall not be responsible for any damages arising out of the use of, or otherwise related to, this publication or any other materials. Nothing contained in this publication is intended to, nor shall have the effect of, creating any warranties or representations from IBM or its suppliers or licensors, or altering the terms and conditions of the applicable license agreement governing the use of IBM software. References in this publication to IBM products, programs or services do not imply that they will be made available in all countries in which IBM operates. Product release dates and/or capabilities referenced in this presentation may change at any time at IBM s sole discretion based on market opportunities or other factors, and are not intended to be a commitment to future product or feature availability in any way. Nothing contained in these materials is intended to, nor shall have the effect of, stating or implying that any activities undertaken by you will result in any specific sales, revenue growth, savings or other results. All statements regarding IBM future direction and intent are subject to change or withdrawal without notice, and represent goals and objectives only. Information concerning non-ibm products and services was obtained from a supplier of those products and services. IBM has not tested these products or services and cannot confirm the accuracy of performance, compatibility, or any other claims related to non-ibm products and services. Questions on the capabilities of non-ibm products and services should be addressed to the supplier of those products and services. All customer examples cited or described are presented as illustrations of the manner in which some customers have used IBM products and the results they may have achieved. Actual environmental costs and performance characteristics may vary by customer and will vary depending on individual customer configurations and conditions. Nothing contained in these materials is intended to, nor shall have the effect of, stating or implying that any activities undertaken by you will result in any specific sales, revenue growth or other results. Prices are suggested U.S. list prices and are subject to change without notice. Starting price may not include a hard drive, operating system or other features. Contact your IBM representative or Business Partner for the most current pricing in your geography. IBM, the IBM logo, ibm.com, and other IBM products and services are trademarks or registered trademarks of International Business Machines Corporation in the United States, other countries, or both. If these and other IBM trademarked terms are marked on their first occurrence in this information with a trademark symbol ( or ), these symbols indicate U.S. registered or common law trademarks owned by IBM at the time this information was published. Such trademarks may also be registered or common law trademarks in other countries. A current list of IBM trademarks is available on the Web at "Copyright and trademark information" at ibm.com/legal/copytrade.shtml 30
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