Managing in the Current Environment; Mitigating Risks & Uncertainties to Maximise Upstream Returns

Transcription

1 Managing in the Current Environment; Mitigating Risks & Uncertainties to Maximise Upstream Returns 7 9 September 2015 Sheraton Imperial, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Early Bird Deadline: 10 August 2015 Registration Deadline: 24 August 2015 Why Should You Attend? This course is for management to achieve best practice in risk evaluation by reviewing their decision making processes to ensure they make the right decisions, they make these decisions quickly and efficiently, that the decisions made are implemented and incorrect decisions are recognised and acted upon. Various tools and methods of identifying, quantifying and managing the risks and uncertainties involved with prospect evaluation, portfolio management, resource assessment, production forecasting, cost estimating and project execution through the exploration, development and production life cycle will be reviewed. These are skills critical to efficient decision making especially in a risky environment such as the current time where oil prices are at a low and margins are under pressure. Participants will also be exposed to how strategies are developed in order to minimise exposure to risk and where possible to mitigate risks thereby achieving optimal operational performance to deliver strong results. Learning and mastering these concepts, together with the methods of analysing and making risk based decisions together with appropriate risk mitigation strategies directly leads to improved evaluation and management of exploration projects. Who Should Attend? This course is intended for oil and gas upstream professionals and management engaged in operations, planning and decision making, assessing and managing projects and work programs, assessing new ventures opportunities and managing exploration portfolios. Suitable job titles include business development managers, drilling managers, exploration and production team leaders, exploration managers, operations managers, senior exploration managers, senior petroleum engineers, senior reservoir engineers, senior safety engineers, and technical safety engineers. Planning managers and departmental heads will also benefit from this course. For further please visit or call

2 Course Description The current low oil price environment demands a focused approach based on high quality decision making in order for companies to maximise returns and achieve their performance targets. Success requires recognition of uncertainty and practical strategies for the minimisation or mitigation of risk to ensure delivery of projects within budget and to generate predictable cash flows. Setting aside speculations about when and to what extent oil prices will recover successful companies must run their businesses based on sustainable oil price assumptions, realistic cost estimates, operational predictability, efficient project delivery and optimised exploration portfolios. To deliver these outcomes company executives must understand the sources of value, risk and vulnerability in their business concentrating on core competencies while managing risks and uncertainties. This course reviews the key concepts for risk based evaluation, valuation, planning and decision making. In addition participants will gain a hands on understanding of markets and practical risk management instruments thereby gaining experience in selecting and using a variety of risk management techniques and tools. Learning Level: Intermediate to Advanced About Your Course Instructor Ian Tchacos is an oil and gas professional with a track record of generating value through his involvement in a range of petroleum projects from exploration through to development as well as value generating acquisitions and asset sales. He has been instrumental in building a number of high growth oil and gas businesses through strategic acquisitions as well as organic growth in a range of junior to mid-sized oil company environments. His 30 year career has involved international experience in corporate development, strategy formulation, mergers and acquisitions, petroleum exploration and development as well as commercial negotiation, oil and gas marketing, corporate and energy finance. Central to the success of these energy business activities has been risk based portfolio management, project evaluation and field development. In his last executive appointment as Managing Director of Nexus Energy he was responsible for this company s development from an onshore A$ 2 million micro-cap explorer to an ASX listed top 200, A$ 1.2 billion market capitalised offshore producer and operator. Ian was directly responsible for initiating and developing risk based decision making as the basis for exploration, development and production investments. Ian holds a Bachelor of Mechanical Engineering and a graduate diploma in Chemical Engineering commencing his professional career as petroleum engineer with significant practical experience in exploration and energy developments. He then progressed to business development roles in organisations where he was responsible for exploration portfolio development as well as project evaluation, commercialisation and development. Ian is currently Executive Chairman of an unlisted energy company, Non-executive Chairman of two ASX listed companies and provides strategic, technical and finance advice to a number of other companies. He brings to a board and management team hands-on expertise in asset value development, strategy formulation, operational and commercial risk management, portfolio development, corporate affairs, project finance and corporate governance. CEUs Engineers are responsible for enhancing their professional competence throughout their careers. Licensed, chartered, and/or certified engineers are sometimes required by government entities to provide proof of continued professional development and training. Training credits are defined as Continuing Education Units (CEUs) or Professional Development Hours (PDHs). Attendees of SPE training courses earn 0.8 CEUs for each day of training. We provide each attendee a certificate upon completion of the training course. For further please visit or call

3 Daily Agenda Day One Monday, 7 September 2015 Introduction: Current Environment and Industry Trends - Business environment and relevance - Oil and gas markets and commodities - Industry performance - Industry structure, contractual arrangements and value chains - Technical, social and market trends Session 1: Oil and Gas Project Management and Planning Fundamentals - Life cycle analysis and planning - Discussion of project management - Considerations across key phases: - Exploration - Appraisal and development - Production - Abandonment Sessions 2: Key Project Valuation Measures - Net Present Value Concept Discount Factor - Cost of Capital review effects of interest rate, cost of equity and debt / equity trends - Net Present Value - Internal Rate of Return - Payback Period - Profit/Investment Ratio Session 3: Petroleum Risk and Uncertainty - Probability, statistics and key uncertainty concepts - Risk and uncertainty management principles - Appropriate use of probability distributions - Monte Carlo simulation, Latin Hypercube - Developing key probabilistic estimation skills - Probabilistic reserves and resource estimation techniques - Probabilistic cost estimation - Estimating with uncertainty - Expected value concepts and the effects of low oil price - Risk assessment - Financial risk analysis - Incorporating risk management in decision making Day Two Tuesday, 8 September 2015 Session 1: Decision Analysis for Exploration and Production - Fundamentals of decision analysis - Problem framing - Value of information - Real option valuation - Application of Bayes theorem - Prospect risking and evaluation effects of oil price on prospect viability - Portfolio management and optimisation in a low oil price environment - Scenario modelling case studies - Project vulnerability analysis and mitigation techniques - Sensitivity Analysis (focusing on effects of oil price downside) - Tornado diagrams - Break-even analysis - Distributions, decision trees and simulation - Practical Considerations - Credibility of input data - Limitation of methods - Probability distributions in nature Session 2: Corporate Risks and Strategic Decision Making - Recognising of corporate influences in decision making - Implications of E&P corporate risk taking and performance - Corporate and financial risk tolerance and vulnerability - Strategic planning and implementation - Recognising companies strengths and weaknesses - Taking advantage of strengths and mitigating weaknesses - Importance of effective communication and management buy in - Commonly used structured planning techniques - SWOT and PEST analysis - HSE, labour and stakeholder considerations - Environmental and safety considerations - Project permitting and government authority approval - Work place relations and local content - Modelling and structuring complex E&P decisions exploration plays selection - Applications of decisions and risk analysis to the petroleum sector - Modern finance concepts For further please visit please visit call or call

4 Daily Agenda Day Three Wednesday, 9 September 2015 Session 1: Price Risk Management - Physical oil and gas markets - Price risk How to evaluate it? - Market structures and types of transactions to mitigate price risk - Price references and pricing mechanisms - Price exposure, definition of hedging and hedging principles - Pricing and sensitivities Sessions 2: Managing Political Risk and Corporate Governance Solutions - Understanding, identifying and managing political risk - Political risk mitigating tools (strengths and weaknesses) - Internal policies and solutions - Political risk insurance and portfolio diversification strategies Session 3: Implementing Decision Analysis and Good Analysis Practices - Consistent use of metrics and appropriate target setting - Decision making processes, useful systems and tools - Separation of operations from strategy - Creation of Forums focused on decisions not discussion - Prioritising high value items and dropping non-essential issues - Ensuring only viability of options considered and implemented DAILY TRAINING SCHEDULE Registration Welcome coffee and tea Coffee break and discussion Lunch break Coffee break and discussion For further please visit please visit call or call

5 Managing in the Current Environment; Mitigating Risks & Uncertainties to Maximise Upstream Returns 7 9 September 2015 Sheraton Imperial, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Registration Form Date : Member No : First Name : Last Name : Company : Job Title : Address : Town/City : Country : Postal Code: Telephone No : Registration Fees Please tick appropriate box SPE Member Non-SPE Member Early Bird Registration On/Before 10 August 2015 USD 2, USD 2, Registration After 10 August 2015 USD 2, USD 2, Prices inclusive of 6% Malaysian GST Registration Deadline: 24 August 2015 Fee includes course registration, training materials, certificate of attendance, daily luncheons and coffee breaks If attendance is not sufficient for the course by 24 August 2015, SPE reserves the right to cancel the course Payment By Credit Card Credit card payment will be processed in US Dollars equivalent at the current exchange rate American Express Master Card Visa Diners Club Card Number Credit Card Billing Address & Zip/Postal Code Name of Card Holder Signature Note: Forms will not be processed and space cannot be guaranteed unless accompanied by payment for total amount / Expiration Date (mm/yy) Security Code (3 digit on back of card / 4 digit on the front of Amex) Cancellation Policy a) A processing fee of USD will be charged for cancellation received before the Registration Deadline 24 August b) Cancellation received after 24 August 2015, a 25% refund will be made to the registrant. c) No refund on cancellation received seven (7) days, 31 August 2015 prior to the starting of the course date. d) No refund will be issued if a registrant fails to show up for the training course. This form may be used as a company invoice Mail completed registration form with remittance and any supporting material to: Society of Petroleum Engineers Level 35, The Gardens South Tower, Mid Valley City, Lingkaran Syed Putra, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Tel: Fax: trainingapac@spe.org For SPE In-House Training or group booking, please contact us at trainingapac@spe.org For further please visit or call