Virtual Power Plants Smart Grid Platforms for Aggregating Distributed Renewables, Demand Response, and Energy Storage Technologies

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1 Virtual Power Plants Smart Grid Platforms for Aggregating Distributed Renewables, Demand Response, and Energy Storage Technologies Growing investments in distributed energy resources renewable distributed energy generation, demand response (DR), energy storage, and plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) will require new business and technology platforms to manage the increased level of diversity and complexity. The increasing variability of both generation (from solar and wind) and loads (due to DR and PEVs) will also require more sophisticated and decentralized decision making. As a result of all of these factors, interest in virtual power plants (VPPs) is gaining significant momentum within the industry. One of the best ways to capture the essence of today s most commercially viable VPP is this simple definition: the ability to tap resources in real time, and with enough granularity, to control the load profiles of customers, aggregate these resources, and put them up on a trader s desk. Unlike microgrids, utilities will have to play a major role in the evolution of the VPP market, by nature of their reliance upon the transmission and distribution grid infrastructure, including smart meters. While there are several distinct segments within the VPP market, there is currently an explosion of interest in DR-based VPPs, which are expected to continue leading the way in terms of capacity additions over the next few years. This Pike Research report provides an in-depth assessment of the market opportunity for VPPs including a comprehensive examination of the four major market segments: demand response-based VPPs, supply-side VPPs, mixed asset VPPs, and wholesale auction VPPs. The report includes detailed market forecasts through 2017, including three growth scenarios for each segment. The study also provides profiles and SWOT analysis for key industry players in the VPP market. KEY MARKET FORECASTS: Total VPP Capacity, Base, Average, and Aggressive Scenarios, World Markets: Total VPP Revenue, Base, Average, and Aggressive Scenarios, World Markets: DR Capacity by Scenario and Market Segment, World Markets: DR Revenue by Scenario and Market Segment, World Markets: Supply-Side VPP Capacity, Base, Average, and Aggressive Scenarios, World Markets: Supply-Side VPP Revenue, Base, Average, and Aggressive Scenarios, World Markets: Mixed Asset VPP Capacity, Base, Average, and Aggressive Scenarios, World Markets: Mixed Asset VPP Revenue, Base, Average, and Aggressive Scenarios, World Markets: Wholesale Auction VPP Capacity, Base, Average, and Aggressive Scenarios, World Markets: Wholesale Auction VPP Revenue, Base, Average, and Aggressive Scenarios, World Markets: TECHNOLOGIES: Demand Response Energy Storage Plug-in Electric Vehicles Renewable Distributed Energy Generation Smart Inverters APPLICATIONS: Electric Vehicles Fuel Cells Green Building Developers Large Commercial/Industrial Customers Owners of Solar PV Residential Customers Small Wind Third-party Demand Response Aggregators Utilities GEOGRAPHIES: North America Europe Asia Pacific Rest of World

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS: 1. Executive Summary 1.1 Virtual Power Plant Market Overview 1.2 Market Forecasts 2. Market Issues 2.1 VPP Definitions, Key Components, and Trends Pike Research s Working Definition VPPs and Microgrids: Similarities and Contrasts Merging of Microgrid/VPP Models What Specific Smart Grid Steps Support VPPs? Global VPP Market Insights Virtual Aggregation and Optimization Trends 2.2 The Business Case for VPPs Better Generation Asset Utilization Greater Flexibility in Meeting Power Demand VPP Synergy with DR 1.0, 2.0, and Modular, Nimble, and Diverse Supply Portfolios Automated Dispatch Capability Economic, Environmental, and Reliability Optimization Strategies Bridging the Divide between Wholesale and Retail Markets Net Cost of VPP Alternatives Tipping Point Value for VPPs 2.3 Current Market Opportunities Smart Grid Upgrades Climate Change Considerations Trends toward Real-Time, Time-of-Use Pricing IT Crossovers into Power Markets Community Solar and Virtual Net Metering Community Choice Aggregation Key Advantages of VPP over Microgrid 2.4 Implementation Issues Lack of VPP Definitions, Incentives, and Policies Lack of VPP Standards and Certifications Current Consumer Backlash against Smart Grid Rollouts Price Spikes, Big Brother, and Emerging EMF/RF Concerns 3. Technology Issues 3.1 Key VPP Component Overview Evolution of Electricity Markets What Are the Top Two Technology Drivers for VPPs? 3.2 Renewable Distributed Energy Generation Basic Principles Strengths and Weaknesses Commercial Time Horizon 3.3 Demand Response Strengths and Weaknesses Commercial Time Horizon 3.4 Advanced Energy Storage Technologies Strengths and Weaknesses Commercial Time Horizon Lithium Ion Batteries Sodium Sulfur Batteries Flow Batteries Flywheels Compressed Air Energy Storage Pumped Hydroelectric Energy Storage 3.5 Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles Strengths and Weaknesses Commercial Time Horizon 3.6 Smart Inverters Strengths and Weaknesses Commercial Time Horizon 4. Key Industry Players 4.1 Utilities DONG Energy Duke Energy Xcel Energy Southern California Edison 4.2 Large Non-Utility Players Cisco Schneider Electric Siemens IBM General Electric Alstom Grid 4.3 Demand Response Aggregators and Enablers EnerNOC Comverge Consert 4.4 VPP Platform Trail Blazers Spirae, Inc Power Analytics Calico Energy OSIsoft Blue Pillar 4.5 VPP Optimization Software Firms Ventyx Viridity Energy 4.6 Storage, Smart Inverter, and Smart Switch Innovators Xtreme Power Princeton Power Systems S&C Electric 5. Market Forecasts 5.1 Market Overview VPP Financial Incentives and Public Policies Net Metering Policies Feed-in Tariffs Interconnection and Permitting Standards Public Benefit Funds Rebate Programs and Grants Renewable Portfolio Standards Renewable Energy Certificates 5.2 Policy Supports per Geography United States The Energy Independence and Security Act FERC Order Number 676-F FERC Order Number FERC Order European Union Denmark Germany United Kingdom Spain Italy France Asia Pacific Japan China Korea India Australia New Zealand Rest of the World Latin America Middle East and Africa 5.3 DR-VPP Forecasts Case Study: Northern Westchester County Energy Action in New York

3 5.3.2 Global Overview of DR- VPPs 5.4 Supply Side VPP Forecasts North America Europe Asia Pacific Rest of the World 5.5 Mixed Asset VPPs E-Energy Global Overview North America Europe Asia Pacific Rest of the World 5.6 Wholesale Auction VPPs 6. Company Directory 7. Acronym and Abbreviation List 8. Table of Contents 9. Table of Charts and Figures 10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes LIST OF TABLES: SWOT Analysis for VPPs VPP vs. Central Station Plant Comparison RDEG SWOT Analysis for VPPs DR SWOT Analysis for VPPs Energy Storage SWOT Analysis for VPPs VPP ISO/Renewables Storage Application Comparison PHEV SWOT Analysis for VPPs Smart Inverter SWOT Analysis for VPPs DONG Energy SWOT Analysis Duke Energy SWOT Analysis Xcel Energy SWOT Analysis SCE SWOT Analysis Cisco SWOT Analysis Schneider Electric SWOT Analysis Siemens SWOT Analysis IBM SWOT Analysis GE SWOT Analysis Alstom SWOT Analysis EnerNOC SWOT Analysis Comverge SWOT Analysis Consert SWOT Analysis Spirae SWOT Analysis Power Analytics SWOT Analysis Calico Energy SWOT Analysis OSIsoft SWOT Analysis Blue Pillar SWOT Analysis Ventyx SWOT Analysis Viridity SWOT Analysis Xtreme Power SWOT Analysis Princeton Power Systems SWOT Analysis S&C Electric SWOT Analysis Total VPP Capacity, Base Scenario, World Markets: Total VPP Capacity, Average Scenario, World Markets: Total VPP Capacity, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: Total VPP Revenue, Base Scenario, World Markets: Total VPP Revenue, Average Scenario, World Markets: Total VPP Revenue, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: DR Capacity, All Scenarios, World Markets: DR Capacity, Managed Load Reduction, Market Segments: DR Capacity, Managed Load Reduction, World Markets: DR Capacity, Dynamic Pricing, Market Segments: DR Capacity, Dynamic Pricing, World Markets: DR Revenue, All Scenarios, World Markets: DR Revenue, Managed Load Reduction, Market Segments: DR Revenue, Managed Load Reduction, World Markets: DR Revenue, Dynamic Pricing, Market Segments: DR Revenue, Dynamic Pricing, World Markets: Supply-Side VPP Capacity, Base Scenario, World Markets: Supply-Side VPP Capacity, Average Scenario, World Markets: Supply-Side VPP Capacity, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: Supply-Side VPP Revenue, Base Scenario, World Markets: Supply-Side VPP Revenue, Average Scenario, World Markets: Supply-Side VPP Revenue, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: Mixed Asset VPP Capacity, Base Scenario, World Markets: Mixed Asset VPP Capacity, Average Scenario, World Markets: Mixed Asset VPP Capacity, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: Mixed Asset VPP Revenue, Base Scenario, World Markets: Mixed Asset VPP Revenue, Average Scenario, World Markets: Mixed Asset VPP Revenue, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: Wholesale Auction VPP Capacity, Base Scenario, World Markets: Wholesale Auction VPP Capacity, Average Scenario, World Markets: Wholesale Auction VPP Capacity, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: Wholesale Auction VPP Revenue, Base Scenario, World Markets: Wholesale Auction VPP Revenue, Average Scenario, World Markets: Wholesale Auction VPP Revenue, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: Global Summary - Renewable Energy Policies & Incentives

4 LIST OF CHARTS & FIGURES: VPP Diagram from Siemens, Founder of VPP Supply Concept VPP: An Internet of Energy Potential VPP Grid Services Portfolio Hybrid Microgrid-VPP Networks for College Campuses Top Solar PV Markets (Distributed and Non-Distributed), 2010 (MW) VPP Conceptual Diagram Depiction of DR-VPP The DR Market Today: 1% to 2% of Summer Peak Days/Hours VPP Balances and Integrates Diverse Resources Moving from Disconnected to Dynamic Energy Management Basic Smart Grid Network Components in the United States DC Devices within the Typical Home RF Emissions Comparison of Household Devices and Smart Meters Before and After Smart Grid Technology Cutting Peak Demand via Distributed Generation California versus Germany: Solar PV Capacity Many State Small Wind Incentives Curtailed or Suspended in 2011 A Typical Residential Load Profile over a 24-Hour Day Transmission and Distribution Storage Applications End-Use Customer Storage Applications Worldwide Announced Storage Capacity for Electricity Markets: 4Q11 Daily Fluctuations in Wind Power Production in the Pacific Northwest Smart Inverter Transforms Microgrid into VPP Smart Inverter Forecast Trend Lines Denmark s Island of Bornholm VPP McApline Creek VPP Current and Projected Wind Generation for Xcel Energy Load Impacts of PHEVs on SCE s Peak Load Model Mannheim Smart Microgrid Cells Alstom Grid VPP Projects in the United States and Europe Consert s View of DR Market Value Denmark s Cell Controller VPP Calico Energy s Worldview on VPP Optimizations Blue Pillar s View of Competitive Landscape Xtreme Power s Storage System Service Portfolio Central High-Frequency Link for Four Bi-Directional Loads/Resources Net Metering Landscape in the United States U.S. State RPS Landscape United States and Canadian RTOs Europe s Proposed SuperGrid in the North Sea (Phase 1) Combined Power Plant Map, Germany DR Capacity, All Scenarios, World Markets: Total VPP Capacity (DR, Supply-Side and Mixed Asset), All Scenarios, World Markets: Total VPP Revenue (DR, Supply-Side and Mixed Asset), All Scenarios, World Markets: Wholesale Auction VPP Revenue, All Scenarios, World Markets: Renewable Distributed Generation Capacity Additions, World Markets: 2009 Annual RDEG Capacity Additions, World Markets: Cumulative Capacity Forecast by ESS for Ancillary Services Application, World Markets: Total EV Charging Station Unit Sales by Region, World Markets: Total VPP Capacity (DR, Supply-Side and Mixed Asset), All Scenarios, World Markets: Total VPP Revenue (DR, Supply-Side and Mixed Asset), All Scenarios, World Markets: DR Capacity, All Scenarios, World Markets: DR Revenue, All Scenarios, World Markets: DR Capacity, Dynamic Pricing, Market Segments: Supply-Side VPP Capacity, All Scenarios, World Markets: Supply-Side VPP Revenue, All Scenarios, World Markets: Mixed Asset VPP Capacity, All Scenarios, World Markets: Mixed Asset VPP Revenue, All Scenarios, World Markets: Wholesale Auction VPP Capacity, All Scenarios, World Markets: Wholesale Auction VPP Revenue, All Scenarios, World Markets: DR Capacity, Managed Load Reduction, Market Segments: DR Capacity, Managed Load Reduction, World Markets: DR Capacity, Dynamic Pricing, World Markets: DR Revenue, Managed Load Reduction, Market Segments: DR Revenue, Managed Load Reduction, World Markets: DR Revenue, Dynamic Pricing, Market Segments: DR Revenue, Dynamic Pricing, World Markets:

5 Total VPP Capacity (DR, Supply, and Mixed Asset), All Scenarios, World Markets: 120,000 (MW) 100,000 80,000 60,000 Base Average Aggressive 40,000 20, (Source: Pike Research) KEY QUESTIONS ADDRESSED: What is a virtual power plant and how do definitions differ in different parts of the world? Is a virtual power plant the same as a microgrid or even the smart grid? How do the four VPP segments differ, and what do long-term trends suggest in terms of the dominant resources that will comprise future VPPs? Why are large companies such as GE, Cisco, IBM, and Schneider Electric entering this market? Who are the leading small innovators in the VPP space? What are the key gateway technologies that will accelerate VPP deployments beyond 2017? What are the policy drivers for VPPs in different parts of the world? What are key implementation issues for VPPs? Why are the United States, Germany, Denmark, Japan, and China such hot spots for VPPs? WHO NEEDS THIS REPORT? Utilities Smart grid hardware and software vendors Demand response providers IT software and services companies Government agencies Investor community REPORT DETAILS: Price: Pages: Tables, Charts, Figures: Release Date: $ Q 2011 TO ORDER THIS REPORT: Phone: sales@pikeresearch.com

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