Core Strategies and Pitfalls in Forecasting for Professional Services Firms

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1 Contents: How Can Forecasting Benefit Professional Services Firms? Utilization and Cash Flow Forecasting. Step-by-Step Putting the Forecast Data to Work The Role of Project Backlog and Project Forecasting Benefits of Project Backlog and Project Forecasting Building a Better Backlog and Forecasting Process Strategies for a More Successful Budgeting and Forecasting Process Key Strategies for Success 5 Three Core Strategies for Financial Forecasting Keep Your Eye on the Prize Core Strategies and Pitfalls in Forecasting for Professional Services Firms How Can Forecasting Benefit Professional Services Firms? Many professional services firms use forecasting in particular, utilization and cash flow forecasting to help management make decisions based on past and current data trends. In general, forecasting starts with the analysis of the work that is yet to be performed and then equates that to overall firm revenue. The calculated revenue then becomes the basis for the accountant to project cash flows coming in, considering average day s receivables, that drive what cash is available versus the cash required to cover current expenses. Without such forecasts, it is much more difficult for management to schedule, staff, plan or perform the work in production that is necessary. Here we ll outline some proven approaches and strategies for maximizing the usefulness and reliability of the forecasting process (and its outcomes), while minimizing the frustrations that can come with them. Utilization and Cash Flow Forecasting, Step-by-Step 1. To properly track utilizations, it is important to start by establishing two budgeted figures: target utilization and available utilization. Both should be established and documented for every staff employee in your system. Target Utilization a function of the targeted billable hours over the standard hours in the work week Available Utilization a function of all available hours minus just the benefit hours 2. Next, establish tracking of scheduled hours by employee, by week, or by whatever reporting interval provides management with enough lead time to make good decisions about staffing and scheduling (usually about six to eight weeks out from the current date). 1

2 3. Consider hours that are in your current proposals to clients. This is one of several reasons to do pro-forma timelines with estimated start dates for projects pre-award. In addition, it s helpful to weight these proposals for likelihood of award, as doing so allows weighting of the hours to the overall scheduled time. 4. On a weekly basis, look at utilizations against the target, available, and awarded, plus some weighted factor of pre-awarded after, say, 70% probability. Putting the Forecast Data to Work One engineering firm that Full Sail Partners works with posted its labor utilization curves (measured against budgeted utilization for the year as a constant) on a message board in the firm s lunchroom. This singular graph showed what the firm was projecting for scheduled utilization against target and available, which kept staff cognizant of the need to schedule fully. The graph also served as a tool to promote billable hours against project deadlines. The firm used this data in other ways as well. For example, it allowed management to see the most important single factor for the firm labor costs against labor revenue as well as how far out work was scheduled, and whether the firm needed to adjust staff or move project timelines to increase project throughput. Forecasting in this way reduced stress for the firm s management, while also empowering staff to keep an eye on utilization. Just as 2

3 significantly, it allowed the firm s senior financial person to produce informative forecasts of revenue, which in turn promoted the morale of everyone in the firm. Last but not least, the data allowed firm management to look at unscheduled but awarded professional service hours, giving management insights into when staffing could not meet the demand of impending work. This enabled them to better manage clients expectations with more realistic delivery dates, and also let HR know whenever hiring would be needed in the immediate future. The Role of Project Backlog and Project Forecasting As firms put together financial budgets, they often look at project backlog and project forecasting two of the major predictors of firm profitability. Typically there are two different processes for forecasting future revenue: 1. Project managers forecast work-under-contract, the most accurate indicator of short-term revenue, by calculating backlog, which is defined as the difference between contracted work and work completed to date. Additionally, a firm s backlog reflects past marketing success and current project managers ability to balance resources against project workload. How successful a firm is in managing this backlog often determines whether opportunities for profits are realized or squandered. 2. A firm s marketing group forecasts less-probable opportunities as part of its project forecast. Unlike project backlog, project forecasting discounts project opportunities to reflect uncertainty that a given project will be put under contract. When reviewed together, these two provide a very good picture of future revenues and upcoming workload. Benefits of Project Backlog and Project Forecasting A solid process for project backlog and project forecasting helps by providing: Tools for project managers to use in resource planning, scheduling, and deliverable management. A solid basis for marketing decisions by firm management. If one s backlog forecast is lower than anticipated, then it makes sense to increase one s marketing campaign s engine. In contrast, if the backlog forecast is higher than anticipated, then adding resources or becoming more selective about one s marketing campaigns may be a better decision. 3

4 Validation of the firm s revenue projections to confirm the accuracy of its corporate financial planning efforts. Building a Better Backlog and Forecasting Process The project backlog and project forecasting process need not be complicated; it needs only to provide a standard tool for company-wide project planning and review. Use the following three steps to initiate a project backlog and project forecasting process. 1. Each project manager prepares a weekly bottomup forecast that includes: A compiled project backlog forecast that identifies active projects under backlog and opportunity forecasts that exceed a target probability (for example, 60%) Assignments of team member resources and resource load allocations (using an hours forecast) for each project during the next six-to-eight weeks Such forecasts provide project managers with a range of benefits, including an opportunity to balance resources, identify gaps in workload, and plan for downtime (i.e. vacation, holiday, training, etc.); an intuitive structure for reviewing project milestones, progress, and budgets; and revenue forecasts that pair forecasted hours with billing rates. 2. Conduct aggregate management reviews After project backlog forecasts are completed each week, management can then compile and review them, often gaining insights into: Possibilities for resource sharing between teams or service areas Future revenue projections and potential budget problems Comparisons of projected backlog revenues against corporate revenue goals 3. Comparison to actual utilization The final step in the process is to conduct a weekly review of utilization (based on timesheets) to ensure that forecasting matches reality. These reviews provide a critical feedback loop to improve a firm s project forecasting process. By following a sound process of project backlog and project forecasting, a firm can increase project management effectiveness, make better decisions about marketing expenditures, and improve and validate its corporate revenue planning efforts benefits that will all help to drastically improve profitability. 4

5 Allow time for both management and operations to develop their budgets and plans. Strategies for a More Successful Budgeting and Forecasting Process Budgeting and forecasting is part art, part science. For too many firms, however, it is also a frustrating process that takes a lot of effort to produce less than optimal results. All too often, the budgeting and forecasting process breaks down because the two parties involved the executive management team and the operations side see the challenge from opposite ends of the same telescope. It may be a gross generalization, but based on insights gained from Full Sail Partners hundreds of engagements, management often tends to be more aggressive and optimistic about goals and forecasts. On the other hand, the operational side sees the nutsand-bolts challenges and logistics required to meet management s goals, and tends to be more conservative in terms of what they think can be achieved with a given budget. In addition to this fundamental dynamic, another challenge related to budgeting and forecasting is that unless it s handled well, it can lead to a lack of buy-in on the part of various parties. Even worse, it can result in a budget that ends up sitting on a shelf for the rest of the year, which is not in anyone s best interest. Key Strategies for Success Fortunately, there are several strategies that can help an organization improve its chances of a successful budgeting and forecasting process. 1. Start early Think about the budget process as one of dialogue and compromise so allow time for both management and operations to develop their budgets and plans, and then to negotiate an acceptable compromise. If a firm is aiming to complete its budget by December 31, for example, it should consider asking management to commit to establishing and publishing their corporate goals no later than October Be transparent and clear about the process If a firm lets everyone know up front that the budgeting process is a dialogue and compromise, there may be more chance that all parties will embrace it and comply with expectations. 3. Have the management team kick off the process After all, their vision for the corporate goals and general forecasts should be what drives the organization. In general, it s a good strategy to use previous years results as a baseline, incorporating any relevant data about changing market 5

6 and economic conditions, new products in development, and so on. Once the management team has published its goals, the operational managers develop budgets for reaching those goals. This is not the order in which it s always done, but in the experience of many Full Sail Partners clients, it s a more effective approach and leads to better results. 4. Have a meeting of the minds Last but not least, block off some time to bring the two sides together around the budget documents and negotiate a compromise. As in any compromise, it s critical that both sides understand that they are not going to get everything they want. But by finding an agreeable compromise, the organization can develop a budget and forecast that s both aspirational and achievable. Budgeting and forecasting succeeds when it brings together two very different perspectives of the organization and finds an effective meeting point. Obviously, it needs to help the organization move forward in a strategic direction; but to become a plan that staff can buy into and implement, it also needs to be realistic and achievable. Above all, it s important to recognize that a realistic, well-thought-out budget is essential to the firm s financial success. Three Core Strategies for Financial Forecasting Business leaders have any number of sophisticated computer programs and models to help them predict future business results. Despite these resources, however, in its essence financial forecasting is still a guessing game. That being said, there are several fundamental strategies that can improve one s chances of making accurate forecasts. 1. Understand how and where the firm has succeeded The first strategy is to look at historical data to gain insight into exactly where past successes and challenges have come from. This inquiry includes reviewing the various sources of a firm s leads, how its sales team manages them, and where the team members tend to have the greatest success. For example, a firm might try to determine: Whether sales most often result from calling into existing clients to find additional work, from cold calling to purchased lists, or alternate sources. The extent to which success has depended on the person doing the calling, the script used for the call, the number of contacts made, or other factors. 6

7 Forecasting in Excel: The Four Biggest Hazards Multiple Spreadsheets The more complex the workbook, the greater the risk of breaking links and more time and effort needed to fix the errors that can result. Changing Dynamics When budgeting assumptions change, this can dramatically impact the way a budget workbook is set-up, resulting in extensive and time-consuming changes. Oops, I Forgot Creating a perfect workbook the first time is rare. However, once everything is mapped, changes can cause havoc as budgets run the risk of breaking links or creating incongruent links. It Doesn t Add Up Even though the company numbers might look good, doesn t mean everything is adding up on all lower levels. Finding and fixing the problem is rarely fast or easy. The lasting impact of sales i.e., which sales turned into continuing relationships and additional work. Of course, there are many factors that affect this statistic, but it can still provide useful insight for one s financial forecasting. The key is investing the time and energy needed to gain fact-based insights into what has worked and not worked in the past. 2. Take a cold, hard approach to a SWOT analysis A second essential strategy of financial forecasting is to look closely at current operating environment, and conduct a brutally honest analysis of the firm s strengths, weaknesses, threats, and opportunities (SWOT). SWOT analyses should begin with a realistic exploration of the many factors that could increase, or decrease, the likelihood of the firm s success. Some questions to answer: What is the firm s reputation in the marketplace what is it known for doing well, and where should it try to improve? Is the local or regional economy growing, stagnant, or shrinking? More specifically, what is the condition of the economy as it affects the firm s clients? Are there factors that could encourage clients to maintain or even expand the services they are buying from the firm? Are there conditions that might threaten projects that they have planned with the firm but not yet started, or that could prevent them from engaging with the firm in the future? What is the competition doing to take advantage of the current market? Where are they weak, and how can the firm exploit that weakness? The underlying strategy in doing a SWOT analysis is to be totally honest and realistic about where the firm excels and where it comes up short and determine what the organization can realistically achieve in its competitive environment. 3. Test assumptions and adjust as necessary A third essential strategy in effective financial forecasting is to track and monitor results. There is a range of ways to do so, but based on our experience working with professional services firms, one of the best is to invest in a purpose-built ERP such as Deltek Vision. This solution can provide a firm with up-to-the minute, comprehensive visibility into all of the assumptions and results related to its financial forecasting. Just as importantly, it connects and organizes data from both 7

8 the front office (i.e., project) function as well as the back office (accounting), and automates a wide variety of essentially manual processes including Customer Relationship Management (CRM), business development and more. Not only will the insight gained help management tweak its assumptions to improve future forecasting efforts, but more importantly, it will help make to easier to make midcourse corrections to keep the firm on course. Keep Your Eye on the Prize Whether a firm uses oneoff spreadsheets, software programs for specific functions, or a comprehensive solution like Deltek Vision, the key is to collect metrics that matter on an ongoing basis, measure results against the firm s financial forecast, and make adjustments as necessary. A company is never able to see a completely accurate view of its future. However, through financial forecasting, firm leaders will gain enough of a realistic sense of what s coming that they will be able to stick to a plan and outmaneuver the competition. Contact Full Sail Partners info@fullsailpartners.com Full Sail Partners specializes in client-focused technology solutions for architects and engineers, energy and environmental consultants, and professional service firms across the country. Full Sail Partners offers business consulting, technology solutions, and application hosting for Deltek Vision. Partnering with more than 1000 clients nationwide, Full Sail Partners builds long-term relationships and seeks to identify the critical resources to create a faster, more efficient, and cohesive business infrastructure. Full Sail Partners Keep Your Business on Course. For more on Full Sail Partners profile and background on the Full Sail Partners crew, visit us at Full Sail Partners, Ltd. Box , 1815 Central Park Drive, Steamboat Springs, CO