Enterprise IT in the Post-Disruption Era

Transcription

1 Enterprise IT in the Post-Disruption Era October 30, 2008 In-Hyung Baik Associate General Manager

2 Agenda Post-disruption Building an alternative IT spending scenario ü Worldwide IT Market outlook ü Korea IT Market outlook 2

3 Dis-rup-tion a situation in which something is prevented from continuing in its normal way because of problems and difficulties Three Dimensions of Disruption Disruptive Customers ü Disruptive Offerings Disruptive Routes to Market 3

4 Line-of-Business Executives What they want from their CIO/Senior IT Management 1. Deliver more high-business value services 2. Make IT more dependable and secure 3. Understand our business better 4. Speed up (business) project delivery

5 What s New Rising LOB Influence BRIC and Beyond Dynamic IT/SOA Innovation Communities Everything-as-a-Service (Apps, Information, Infrastructure) (Apps, Information, Infrastructure) Next-Gen SIs (SaaS-based) SMB Long Tail Consumer Market Influence (Online) Appliances Appliances Mobile Internet Internet Business Services

6 Everything-as-a-Service Offering Software Services Hardware as Delivery Model Software Services Hardware

7 Market Makers (& Ecosystems) Jump Feet First Into Everything-as-a-Service Market makers notably IBM and Microsoft will move strongly into Software-as-a-Service Cisco and Google also Other Segments Accelerate Online Shift (Web 2.0) Data Center-as-a-Service Storage-as-a-Service BI-as-a-Service Ecosystems shift online: new tools, new players Online solution configurators are critical Next-generation -aas SIs

8 Software as a Service SaaS Tipping Point in '07 Q: Support concept of purchasing software as a business/hosted service? LOB üibm will create an online marketplace on WebSphere üsap, Microsoft will accelerate SaaS strategies ülots of SaaS startups LOBs get it No No CIO Yes Yes

9 No/Low-Skill Appliances for On-Premise Next-generation appliances ( apppods ) Internet-connected Pre-integrated, downloadable software appliances No/low on-site skills needed One (or two) server market-makers will introduce this model in a big way in 08 And the leading SaaS disrupters will participate!

10 The (Mobile) Last Mile A Flood of Web Gadgets 1 2 palms wide, wireless Webconnected, consumer-priced, good at one or two things Intel is placing big bets in 08, 09 Open Mobile Internet Many major mobile network operator networks will open up in 08/ 09

11 Convergence 1.0 & 2.0 Convergence 1.0 not same as Convergence 2.0 Convergence 1.0 is on mobile device level Mobile device appropriates attributes of other consumer electronic devices Networks remain distinct, easy to control Convergence 2.0 is on the network level All consumer electronic devices may directly connect to the network Common IP protocol makes it difficult for operator to exercise control Convergence impact on operator control unclear Dual-mode devices may erode operator control 2007 IDC 11

12 Convergence, Cooperation, Conflict? Telecom Internet Media Telecom, broadcasting media, and the Internet all converging and competing in the same content delivery space Result is collision of worldviews, business models (e.g., ad-based v. subscription-based) Operators, device vendors, IT and media firms, chipset vendors all jostling for dominance User experience emerges as new battleground Leading players seek to acquire core assets they deem critical for success in converged space Seek to lead, and shape necessary eco-system Colliding industries, creative gales of destruction force players to experiment with new business models

13 The New Innovation Infrastructure Collaboration (connect the brains) Enterprise social networking 14% have deployed, 27% additional plan in 08 + Information (generate & analyze the information) 10X growth in 5 years Will flip enterprise information to primarily externallysourced = Eureka 2.0 IBM, Microsoft, Oracle, Google HP, EMC, Cisco, Adobe, Symantec, et al.

14 Adopt Quickly Access to Information Innovative Ideas Affordable & Open Business Relevance & Value Support New Innovation Models Solutionspackaged Simple to Adopt & Affordable Mobile/ Accessible New Information & Innovation Infrastructure Essential Guidance

15 New Design Points for the Post-Disruption Marketplace Pre-Disruption Large Enterprises Developed Economies On-Premise Complex to Adopt and Use Solutions piece parts Corporate Information Mobility = the Exception Post-Disruption Small/Medium, Consumers Emerging Economies Online & On-Premise: Boundary-less Simple to Adopt and Use Solutions-Integrated (ipod/itunes) A World of Information (and Insights) Mobility = the Rule Partner Relationship s Moderate-sized Partner Programs Install-Oriented Partners IT Vendor as the OEM Huge Partner Communities Business-Value-Oriented Partners IT Embedded in Business Service

16 New Alternative WW Scenario 16

17 2009 IT Spending New WW GDP Scenario 2.8 % 1.9 % Q2 Black Book Downside Scenario 9.5% 2009 Old 2009 New 7.3% 4.3% 3.9% 1.2% 1.2% 2.3% 0.4% 5.6% 2.7% 4.1% 3.8% US WE APxJapan Japan WW Korea Source: IDC Q Worldwide Black Book, GRO estimates 17

18 2008 & 2009 IT Spending by Product Korea 12.8% WW 12.0% 12.0% 8.7% 9.2% 9.8% 8.0% 7.1% 7.1% 7.1% 8.0% 7.3% 5.1% 5.7% 5.4% 4.0% 3.6% 4.0% 3.6% 4.4% 3.7% 3.6% 2.5% 1.7% 0.0% 1.4% 0.3% PC -0.5% Peripherals Server Disk STR Net.Equip. Software IT Services 0.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% PC Peripherals Server -0.8% -0.5% Disk STR Net.Equip. Software IT Services -1.3% -4.0% -3.0% -4.0% 18

19 Key Message IT spending reductions are reasonable ü IT spendings will not drop to zero or below as they were after dot.com bust and 9.11 terror ü Alignment of IT and business ü IT projects are multi-year base About $3 billion of IT spending will be cut by directly afflicted financial services firms in 2009, not so much in the overall scheme of a global IT spending($1.5 trillion) A much bigger impact will be felt from lower economic activities, lower consumer spending, falling home prices, and lower exports to the US

20 Key Message(cont.) Some IT projects will get cut or postponed the strongest impact may be on project-based IT services. IT budget scrutiny will increase Belt tightening will actually drive faster migration to new tech., virtualization, SaaS, IP-based Tele., enterprise web2.0 app. Server markets will see slower growth from financial services sector directly Inasmuch as new regulations are put in place, there will be more spending on software and services to enforce compliance

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