Hype Cycle for Manufacturing Technologies, 2003

Transcription

1 D. Miklovic, S. Landry Strategic Analysis Report 13 June 2003 Hype Cycle for Manufacturing Technologies, 2003 New technologies can help manufacturing enterprises integrate their IT infrastructures, enhance interaction with their customers and partners, and refine their business processes. Management Summary The impact of new technologies in the manufacturing sector is more profound than ever. However, the relative maturity of a given technology within any industry can vary substantially between sectors, lines of business, market segments and geography. The technologies profiled in the Hype Cycle for Manufacturing Technologies, 2003 are those that will directly affect a broad range of manufacturers across the global manufacturing community. Technologies unique to an industry subsegment are not profiled, and there are certain technologies that would be positioned differently in one subsegment vs. another. Such variations have been averaged to provide the broadest view, and individual enterprises are best served by factoring in their individual issues. Gartner Entire contents 2003 Gartner, Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The reader assumes sole responsibility for the selection of these materials to achieve its intended results. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.

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3 CONTENTS 1.0 The Hype Cycle On the Rise Nanotech-Based Manufacturing Business Intelligence Tools Specific to Manufacturing At the Peak Web Services Grid Computing Speech and Voice Technologies on the Plant Floor Manufacturing Line Simulation Virtual Prototyping Passive RFID Sliding Into the Trough D Real-Time Visualization D Lithography Climbing the Slope Portals E-Signatures Entering the Plateau Active RFID Plant Automation Bar Codes Conclusion...9 Appendix A:Hype Cycle Definitions...10 Appendix B:Acronym Key June

4 FIGURES Figure 1. Hype Cycle for Manufacturing Technologies, June

5 1.0 The Hype Cycle Visibility Speech and Voice Technologies on the Plant Floor Grid Computing Web Services Manufacturing Line Simulation Virtual Prototyping Passive RFID 3-D Real-Time Visualization Key: Time to Plateau Less than two years Twotofiveyears Five to 10 years More than 10 years Bar Codes Business Intelligence Tools Specific to Manufacturing Nanotech-Based Manufacturing Portals 3-D Lithography E-Signatures Active RFID Plant Automation As of June 2003 Technology Trigger Peak of Inflated Expectations Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity Maturity Acronym Key 3-D three-dimensional RFID radio frequency identification Source: Gartner Research (June 2003) Figure 1. Hype Cycle for Manufacturing Technologies, On the Rise 2.1 Nanotech-Based Manufacturing Definition: Use of nanotechnology to provide manufacturing capacity. Time to Plateau/Adoption Speed: More than 10 years. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Nanotechnology is found in laboratories for limited production uses. Only a few products are available, but the technology's promise is understood. Business Impact Areas: Improves product function. 2.2 Business Intelligence Tools Specific to Manufacturing Definition: Tools used primarily at the product design phase to ensure that no duplication of previous art occurs. May also affect process design and operation. 13 June

6 Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Business intelligence (BI) tools that look at internal data are being adopted more rapidly than externally focused technologies. Because manufacturers have been slow to adopt external-looking technologies, the overall position of this technology is weighted toward a pre-peak position. Business Impact Areas: Improves process and interoperability. 3.0 At the Peak 3.1 Web Services Definition: A software concept and infrastructure for program-to-program communication and application component delivery. The Web services concept treats software as a set of services accessible over ubiquitous networks using Web-based standards and protocols. Specifically, a Web service is a software component that can be accessed by another application such as a client, a server or another Web service through the use of generally available protocols and transports such as Web Services Description Language (WSDL), Universal Description, Discovery and Integration (UDDI) and Simple Object Access Protocol (SOAP). Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Web services specific to manufacturing operations. Manufacturing will lag general business adoption of these technologies due to the preponderance of installed base of non-web-enabled applications and hardware, and the industries' slower technology renewal cycles. Business Impact Areas: Improves process. Selected Vendors: Microsoft. 3.2 Grid Computing Definition: Harnessing multiple computers/servers in a network to load-balance transaction processing. Time to Plateau/Adoption Speed: Five to 10 years. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Most usable in product design and simulation stages and in supply chain modeling/forecasting. Only limited applicability exists to the plant floor as of mid-2003, because computing problems on the plant floor are not as complex. Business Impact Areas: Improves process and product function. Selected Vendors: IBM and Sun Microsystems. 3.3 Speech and Voice Technologies on the Plant Floor Definition: Any form of speech-to-text or text-to-speech technology; does not include biometric uses, such as user verification. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Accuracy in noisy environments remains a significant challenge. 13 June

7 Business Impact Areas: Improves process and data capture. Selected Vendors: IBM. 3.4 Manufacturing Line Simulation Definition: Use of modeling tools to simulate the performance of a manufacturing facility in its entirety prior to construction. Includes full dynamic simulation, including human factors and transient behaviors. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Basic tools are available, but the dearth of new capacity addition in the current economy is slowing adoption. Justifiable only in largest new construction projects today. Business Impact Areas: Improves process and product quality. Selected Vendors: Delmia and Tecnomatix Technologies. 3.5 Virtual Prototyping Definition: Going direct from design to product without an intermediate physical prototype. All prototyping is done using digital simulation. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: This technology is used in high-value capital goods or high-volume, medium-value goods markets such as aerospace and automotive, and is moving into other forms of manufacturing. Cost is more of a limiting factor than technology. Business Impact Areas: Reduces time to market and increases engineering efficiency. 3.6 Passive RFID Definition: Applied at the unit level, passive radio frequency identification (RFID) uses tags with data storage capability to store manufacturing and product details. Passive tags do not require power, as they get their energy from the reader. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Greater accuracy of supply chain information, improved product quality and customer service can be achieved. Cost is currently an inhibitor. Business Impact Areas: Improves process, automation and data capture. Selected Vendors: Intermec Technologies. 4.0 Sliding Into the Trough D Real-Time Visualization Definition: Ability to display three-dimensional (3-D) images of products in various states of assembly during the engineering, manufacturing and service processes. Generally requires individual display devices. Time to Plateau/Adoption Speed: Five to 10 years. 13 June

8 Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: There is only partial adoption in most high-value goods industries, as well as display technology limitations and bandwidth limitations delivering data to point of display. Business Impact Areas: Improves product quality, engineering efficiency and process D Lithography Definition: Ability to produce 3-D prototypes direct from digital files. May use thermal deposition of plastics via jet technology or ultraviolet lasers to cure resins in real time. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: This technology is currently in use as a prototyping tool, but there is extremely limited use in mass customization and market-of-one production. Speed and material limitations exist. Business Impact Areas: Improves product quality, engineering efficiency and process. 5.0 Climbing the Slope 5.1 Portals Definition: Plant-floor deployment of portal technology. Portals are high-traffic Web sites with a wide range of content, services and links. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Many early adopters have adopted portal technologies; however, the specific technologies they have adopted are those that will become obsolete prior to reaching the Plateau of Productivity. Business Impact Areas: Improves process, interoperability and data capture. Selected Vendors: Aspen Technology, OSI Software. 5.2 E-Signatures Definition: E-signatures are associated with electronic messaging. They bind the signer to whatever the document states, prevent alterations once signed and prevent the fraudulent transfer of a signature on one document to another. This technology is used in a number of authentication methods. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: E-signatures are in use for specific applications, primarily in regulated industries such as food and beverage or pharmaceuticals. Business Impact Areas: Improves process and compliance. Selected Vendors: Honeywell, Rockwell International and Siemens. 6.0 Entering the Plateau 6.1 Active RFID Definition: Powered radio frequency technology that stores product and process data. Generally applied to the carrier or container as opposed to the product due to cost considerations. 13 June

9 Time to Plateau/Adoption Speed: Five to 10 years. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: The technology improves product quality and supply chain accuracy. The primary factor affecting adoption today is cost/value ratio. Business Impact Areas: Improves process, automation and data capture. Selected Vendors: Intermec Technologies and Rockwell. 6.2 Plant Automation Definition: Programmable logic controllers, distributed control systems, supervisory control and data acquisition, PC or soft control. Time to Plateau/Adoption Speed: Less than two years. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: More than 90 percent of manufacturing enterprises grossing more than $50 million per year use this technology. Business Impact Areas: Improves process, automation and data capture. Selected Vendors: ABB, GE Fanuc, Rockwell and Siemens. 6.3 Bar Codes Definition: Printed or engraved bar codes used at the unit and the lot levels. Time to Plateau/Adoption Speed: Less than two years. Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: This is the dominant technology for auto-id. Business Impact Areas: Improves process and data capture. Selected Vendors: Intermec and Symbol Technologies. 7.0 Conclusion Many manufacturing companies monitor emerging trends and technologies, but fail to consider the relevance of a given technology for their industry segment. The Hype Cycle for Manufacturing, 2003 can serve as a starting point in helping managers to understand which technologies are ready for adoption and which need to mature. 13 June

10 Appendix A: Hype Cycle Definitions Technology Trigger: A breakthrough, public demonstration, product launch or other event generates significant press and industry interest. Peak of Inflated Expectations: During this phase of overenthusiasm and unrealistic projections, a flurry of well-publicized activity by technology leaders results in some successes, but more failures, as the technology is pushed to its limits. The only enterprises making money are conference organizers and magazine publishers. Trough of Disillusionment: Because the technology does not live up to its overinflated expectations, it rapidly becomes unfashionable. Media interest wanes, except for a few cautionary tales. Slope of Enlightenment: Focused experimentation and solid hard work by an increasingly diverse range of organizations lead to a true understanding of the technology's applicability, risks and benefits. Commercial, off-the-shelf methodologies and tools ease the development process. Plateau of Productivity: The real-world benefits of the technology are demonstrated and accepted. Tools and methodologies are increasingly stable as they enter their second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market. Approximately 30 percent of the technology's target audience has or is adopting the technology as it enters the Plateau. Time to Plateau/Adoption Speed: The time required for the technology to reach the Plateau of Productivity. 13 June

11 Appendix B: Acronym Key 3-D three-dimensional BI RFID SOAP UDDI WSDL business intelligence radio frequency identification Simple Object Access Protocol Universal Description, Discovery and Integration Web Services Description Language 13 June