Emerging Trends Radar Screen. Don t Ride the Hype Cycle. The Danger of Reactive Approaches. Longworth Venture Partners September 22, 2005 Waltham, MA

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1 Emerging Trends Radar Screen Longworth Venture Partners September 22, 2005 Waltham, MA Jackie Fenn VP and Gartner Fellow Emerging Trends and Technologies Gartner Don t Ride the Cycle Visibility Don t Join in Just Because It s In Positive Negative Don t Miss Out Just Because It s Out Technology Trigger Peak of Inflated Expectations Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity Maturity The Danger of Reactive Approaches Visibility Positive Risk of being too early Negative Risk of being too late Technology Trigger Peak of Inflated Expectations Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity Maturity 1

2 The Danger of Reactive Approaches Visibility Positive Risk of being too early Negative Risk of being too late Coping Strategy: Noise Filter Technology Trigger Peak of Inflated Expectations Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity Maturity Emerging Technologies Cycle 2005 P2P VoIP Inkjet Manufacturing Electronic Ink/Digital Paper Model-driven Approaches Carbon Nanotubes Podcasting Grid Computing Biometric Identity Documents BPM Suites Desktop Search Linux on Desktop for Mainstream Business Users Micro Fuel Cells Really Simple Syndication Biometric User Identification Corporate blogging Key: Time to Plateau Less than two years Two to five years Five to 10 years More than 10 years Recognition for Telephony and Call Center Internal Web Services Business Process Text-to- Networks WiMAX Wikis / VoIP Corporate Organic Light-Emitting Devices Business Rule Synthesis Web Services- Mesh Networks--Sensor Enabled Business Engines Trusted 4G Models Computing Group Location "Aware" Applications Software as Service/ASP Prediction Markets Handwriting Recognition Networked Collective intelligence Video Conferencing Quantum Computing RFID (passive) DNA Logic XBRL Service Oriented Tablet PC Internet micro-payments As of August 2005 From Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2005, published 3 August Emerging Technologies Cycle 2005 P2P VoIP Inkjet Manufacturing Electronic Ink/Digital Paper Model-driven Approaches Carbon Nanotubes Podcasting Business Process Networks Corporate 4G Grid Computing BPM Suites Wikis Web Services- Enabled Business Models Biometric Identity Documents Desktop Search Prediction Markets Networked Collective intelligence Linux on Desktop for Mainstream Business Users Micro Fuel Cells Really Simple Syndication Biometric User Identification Corporate blogging WiMAX Organic Light-Emitting Devices Mesh Networks-- --Sensor Recognition for Telephony and Call Center VoIP Business Rule Engines Trusted Computing Group Location "Aware" Applications Software as Service/ASP Handwriting Recognition Video Conferencing RFID (passive) Quantum Computing DNA Logic XBRL Service Oriented Tablet PC Internet micro-payments From Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2005, published 3 August Key: Time to Plateau Less than two years Two to five years Five to 10 years More than 10 years Internal Web Services Text-to- / Synthesis As of August

3 Hot Spots in Emerging Trends Objects and Places: Building the Real World Web Building the Real World Web: Identifying, Sensing, Communicating POS scanner Reads phone screen Object Identification 1D and 2D bar codes, RFID tags MEMS Direction, acceleration Location GPS, Galileo Wireless Networks WiFi, Bluetooth, Zigbee Lookup services People, products, bar codes... Sensor Networks Temperature, chemicals.. Applications for the Real World Web Smart Objects and Packaging Know identity, location, owner, history, safety, environment Remote Sensing Tracking, control, compliance monitoring, healthcare Machine to Machine Local distributed decisions and actions Behavior-based Pricing Models Usage, risk Context-based information at point of decision/action Sociable Products Recognize owner, sensitive to context Unifying Digital and Physical Worlds 3

4 Mobile Robots Crawl into the Mainstream Features: Low Cost Local or Remote Control Telepresence see, control, communicate Humanoid Teaming Applications: Entertainment Home Services Healthcare Security Military Agriculture Emerging Technologies Cycle 2005 P2P VoIP Inkjet Manufacturing Electronic Ink/Digital Paper Model-driven Approaches Carbon Nanotubes Podcasting Grid Computing Biometric Identity Documents BPM Suites Desktop Search Linux on Desktop for Mainstream Business Users Micro Fuel Cells Really Simple Syndication Biometric User Identification Corporate blogging Key: Time to Plateau Less than two years Two to five years Five to 10 years More than 10 years Recognition for Telephony and Call Center Internal Web Services Business Process Text-to to- Networks WiMAX Wikis / VoIP Corporate Organic Light-Emitting Devices Business Rule Synthesis Web Services- Mesh Networks--Sensor Enabled Business Engines Trusted 4G Models Computing Group Location "Aware" Applications Software as Service/ASP Prediction Markets Handwriting Recognition Networked Collective intelligence Video Conferencing Quantum Computing RFID (passive) DNA Logic XBRL Service Oriented Tablet PC Internet micro-payments As of August 2005 From Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2005, published 3 August Hot Spots in Emerging Trends Identifying, sensing, communicating Mobile robots: Network nodes that move Objects and Places: Building the Real World Web Context: Unifying physical and virtual People and Community: Leveraging Connections 4

5 User Interfaces: Breaking the Price/ Performance/Benefit/Usability Barrier Gesture Recognition Haptics to Translation Emotion Detection Retinal Displays Electronic Ink Next Big Metaphor Recognition Handwriting Recognition Desktop Videoconferencing Screen Real Estate Emerging Niche Mainstream Technology-Enabled Communities: Turning Connections Into Information Links as Information Personalized recommendations Social network analysis People as Information Expertise location: Tacit, AskMe Social networking: LinkedIn, Meetup Collective Intelligence as Creation Quality and trust ratings Folksonomies and tagging Prediction markets Open Source Wikipedia Community as Core Competency Scientific discovery InnoCentive Product design Threadless Application development TopCoder New Information New Creative Sources Leverage implicit contributions: buying, linking, clicking, searching Extend the enterprise by using, or being, the new marketplaces Leverage networked collective intelligence for improved quality/cost Use the power of scale to solve old problems in new ways Watch for "one-click" usability breakthroughs: blogs, wikis, file sharing Emerging Technologies Cycle 2005 P2P VoIP Inkjet Manufacturing Electronic Ink/Digital Paper Model-driven driven Approaches Carbon Nanotubes Podcasting Grid Computing Biometric Identity Documents BPM Suites Desktop Search Linux on Desktop for Mainstream Business Users Micro Fuel Cells Really Simple Syndication Biometric User Identification Corporate blogging Key: Time to Plateau Less than two years Two to five years Five to 10 years More than 10 years Recognition for Telephony and Call Center Internal Web Services Business Process Text-to- Networks WiMAX Wikis / VoIP Corporate Organic Light-Emitting Devices Business Rule Synthesis Web Services- Mesh Networks--Sensor Enabled Business Engines Trusted 4G Models Computing Group Location "Aware" Applications Software as Service/ASP Prediction Markets Handwriting Recognition Networked Collective intelligence Video Conferencing Quantum Computing RFID (passive) DNA Logic XBRL Service Oriented Tablet PC Internet micro-payments As of August 2005 From Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2005, published 3 August

6 Hot Spots in Emerging Trends Identifying, sensing, communicating Mobile robots: Network nodes that move Objects and Places: Building the Real World Web Context: Unifying physical and virtual Connections Collective as information Intelligence: New creative sources Redefining Data, Applications, Processes, Products and Enterprises People and Community: Leveraging Connections Breaking user interface barriers High Decision Support and Analytics Search Taxonomies Dynamic rlinking Link Analysis Natural-Language Search Audio Search Pattern Matching Analyze Data Mining Visualization Predictive Modeling Emotion Detection Quality Assessment Reports Extracts Foundations Metadata Mgmt. Standards Integration Grid Computing Interpretability Low Images Video Low Audio Text Self- Service Trails Social Network Connections Transform Automatic Indexing Information Extraction Semantic Density Metadata DBMS High Applications Shift from Pre-Canned Logic to Dynamic Assemblies Application Monoliths Black or Opaque Boxes Shifts to Well-Defined, Atomic Functional Components and Processes Driven By SOA, EDA, BPM, BPP, SODA/ISE, Composite applications, reuse, metadata, MDA Vendor Vendor Design Design for for Mass Mass Market Market Fit Fit Shifts to User User Tailored Tailored For For Custom Custom Fit Fit Driven By BPP, SODA/ISE, Metadata, portals Vendor Construction and Periodic Release Schedules Shifts to User Assembly and Continuous Improvement Driven By Agility, BAM, RTI, BPA, BPM, rules engines, Composite applications 6

7 Hot Spots in Emerging Trends Identifying, sensing, communicating Mobile robots: Network nodes that move Objects and Places: Building the Real World Web Context: Unifying physical and virtual Data as insight Metadata as logic Connections Collective as information Intelligence: New creative sources People and Community: Leveraging Connections Breaking user interface barriers Agility through Redefining Data, assembly Applications, Processes, Products and Enterprises Unbundling business processes Connectivity Granularity Unbundling Business Processes: Connectivity + Granularity = Opportunity Established B2B, B2C, C2C connectivity Transfer of Responsibility Simple Tasks Distribute Call center Help desk Complex Tasks Eliminate Re-keying data Outsource Call center Help desk More Granular IT Automate Credit check RFID tag read Self-service Online purchases Airport kiosks Self-checkout Voice response Collective Intelligence Creation Classification Quality Rating Prediction Emerging Opportunities More Granular Business Architectures (distributed workforce, BPM) New Products and Services Microcontent Ring tones itunes Articles Microservices Taxi dispatch Parking reservation Delivery CIO Technology Priorities Reflect a Focus on the Right Information at the Right Location To what extent is each of the following technologies a priority for you in 2005? Security enhancement tools Business intelligence applications Mobile workforce enablement Workflow management deployment and integration Enterprise resource planing (ERP) upgrades Storage management Voice and data integration over IP Customer relationship management (CRM) Business process integration tools Server virtualization Rank Average

8 Top 10 Business and Technology Priorities in 2006 Top 10 Business Priorities Ranking Top 10 Technology Priorities Ranking Business process improvement 1 Business Intelligence applications 1 Controlling enterprise operating costs 2 Security technologies 2 Attracting and growing customer relationships 3 Mobile workforce enablement 3 Improving competitive advantage 4 Collaboration technologies 4 Improving competitiveness 5 Customer sales and service 5 Using intelligence in products and services 6 Service Oriented Architectures (SOA) 6 Security breaches and disruptions 7 Workflow management 7 Revenue growth 8 Networking, voice and data communications 8 Faster innovation 9 Virtualization 9 Faster innovation and cycle times 10 Legacy application modernization 10 Source: Gartner EXP (January 2006). See Recommendations Examine the disruptive potential from the real-world Web in linking objects and places to the information universe. Leverage insights from new types of data and metadata, including people to people connectivity, and the creative potential of networked collective intelligence. Examine how finer grained applications, processes, products and services can transform the operations and growth of companies. "Thus, the task is not so much to see what no one yet has seen, but to think what nobody yet has thought about that which everybody sees." Arthur Schopenhauer, Q&A. 8