FOODSURE 2018 HORIZON SCANNING

Transcription

1 FOODSURE 2018 HORIZON SCANNING Best practices to leverage today s data and technology capabilities

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3 Risk Management Emerging Risk Indicator Horizon Scanning (HS) Foresight Risk Assessment Food Safety Weak Signal Trend Wild Card Hazard Risk Communication Early Warning Rapid Alert Systems 3

4 DEFINITION EARLY WARNING EW/RA systems are systems that predict or detect of potential serious consequence early on in the event. The rapid alert portion to the system provides information to the public or key stakeholders in a quick fashion to allow for timely response to the issue identified. HORIZON SCANNING A specific foresight methodology that utilizes various steps to identify issues at the edge of current thinking that may have significant impact in the medium to long term future. 4

5 ANTICIPATIVE MODEL Identify key factors that contributed to the incidents in the past. Classify significant factor attributes based to their importance. Extract data patterns between attributes and its values that lead to incidents. 5

6 HOW DATA SCIENCE CAN SUPPORT AT CURRENT DAYS?

7 FIRST, HAVE YOU EVER MET A MODERN DATA SCIENTIST?

8 MATH & STATISTICS DOMAIN KNOWLEDGE PROGRAMMING & DATABASE COMMUNICATION & VISUALIZATION 8

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12 MINIMIZING RISKS TO ENSURE PRODUCT CONFIDENCE HOW TO?

13 To sell food products consumers must trust a brand. To ensure trust, companies has to constantly measure and predict the confidence on each and every product. Ensuring confidence means systematic approach to risk assessment, enabled by the large volume of data we all sit on 13

14 Combining Multiple Data Sources Historical Incidents Data News and Media Regulatory Information Analytical Information Consumer Complaints Recipes and Label Data TO FIND COMMON PATTERNS 14

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16 What can we get from the outside COLLECTING FOOD SAFETY DATA FROM THE WEB 16

17 WHICH TECHNIQUES? 17

18 WEB CRAWLING 18

19 SOURCES Social media Online media Information Goverments & Authorities Apps Databases CHALLENGE? GET WHAT IS RELEVANT AND CORRELATE THOSE SOURCES 19

20 EU COUNTING 5 AND MORE RASFF FRAUD NETWORK TRACES ADNS EUROPHYT Aims to efficiently share information on food safety risks legal basis in General Food Law Regulation (EC) No 178/2002 RASFF information exchange can lead to product recalls and alleviation of food safety hazards Includes alert, information and border rejection notifications Publicly available portal, searchable database Set up after the horse meat crisis Aims to allow EU countries to work in accordance of the Official Controls Regulation (Reg. EC No 882/2004) EU 28 Member States plus Switzerland, Norway and Iceland contact points EU veterinary health network for monitoring, notifying and certifying and imports, exports and trade in live animals/animal products. Includes alert notifications and access to official documents, and allows detection of fake certificates Includes online management multilingual tool for sanitary requirements for intra-eu trade and importations Allows coordination and monitoring of outbreaks of contagious animal diseases A warning notification and communication system between competent authorities Has a frequently updated online overview report a rapid alert and notification system for plants deals with intercepting plant pathogens and pests in plants imported plants both for third countries or from intra-eu trade Has an online listing of annual interceptions for past years and monthly interceptions for the running year. 20

21 USA FDA, NIH, CDC FDA recalls, withdrawals & alerts FDA website with searchable list of recalls of FDA-regulated products, can subscribe to receive alerts. provides information from press releases and other public notices not all recalls have press releases and are posted on the website FDA enforcement report Includes all recalls monitored by FDA once they are classified Can also include recalls prior to classification when FDA determines the firm s removal or correction of a marketed product(s) meets the definition of a recall. Can view weekly reports, search online database, subscribe to a mailing list Reportable Food Registry for Industry (RFR) Part of the FDA and National Institutes of Health (NIH) Safety Reporting Portal (SRP) Electronic portal for industry mandatory report when 'there is reasonable probability that an article of food will cause serious adverse health consequences' Applies on all FDAregulated food and feed, except dietary supplements and infant formula or products regulated exclusively by USDA. Legal basis on FDA Amendment Act of 2007 (Pub. L ) FoodNet & FoodNet Fast FoodNet: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) tool tracking trends for infections transmitted commonly through food - annual reports since 1996 provides a foundation for food safety policy and prevention efforts FoodNet FAST: CDC s interactive online program for getting information on cases of illness reported Interactive tool with custom searches to display data on graphs, maps and tables for pathogens transmitted through food 21

22 GLOBAL (WHO, FAO) INFOSAN FOSCOLLAB GLEWS, GLEWS+ EMPRES-i WHO network Assists member states in managing food safety risks Rapid dissemination of information on food safety emergencies Aims to contain spread of contamination food material Platform to share experiences, optimize practices/interventions Includes database from national competent institutions and from FAO/WHO scientific committees online tool to estimate foodborne illness global burden of disease A WHO network for food safety professionals Users can access to food safety data and information Integrate data and information from potentially fragmented sources across sectors, e.g. agriculture, food and human health areas Contributes to better risk assessment and decision making Public access to online dashboards/databases (e.g. Chemical overview Dashboard, GEMS/Food contaminants Database Dashboard) Joint FAO-OIE-WHO effort global early warning system for health threats and emerging risks at the human-animal ecosystems interface Rapid detection and risk assessment of health threats and events of potential concern at the human-animal system interface information on global food production, consumption and trade Monitors Food security. food prices early warning on food crises Online map tool, country balance sheets, analysis tools WHO web based application to support veterinary services Organizes and facilitates access to global and regional animal disease information Aims to enhance early warning and response to high impact animal diseases and emergent zoonoses Includes an online interactive global map and a listing of disease events 22

23 CHINA Food Recall System Early Food Rumor Warning System Authority to conduct food recalls has been shifted from China s General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection, and Quarantine (AQSIQ) to Chinese Food and Drug Administration (CFDA) In 2015, CFDA published the Administrative Measures for Food Recalls (Decree 12). Stipulates that food producers and traders are accountable for food safety Must honor obligations regarding termination of trade, recall and treatment/disposal of unsafe food products. recalls are categorized into three grades, depending on seriousness and degree emergency Aims to prevent spread of food rumours and improve scientific literacy among the public; baseless online rumors weaken the government s credibility and affect public confidence in food safety Launched in 2017, cloud-based system Analyzes and queries rumors, monitors in real time channels that can spread rumors Media websites, online forums, international social media platforms China Food and Drug Administration (CFDA) website has dedicated pages for purveying actual science and refuting false claims 23

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25 AN EXPERIMENT ANALYISING FOOD SAFETY ISSUES FROM PUBLIC DATA

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28 HOW DID WE DO? Collected articles, pages documents from 450 web sites Translated to English all text ML algo Classified each article to label it as Food Safety incident / Recall /Fraud Performed semantic analysis to identify products and substances (ancestors analysis) Developed prediction model Created visualizations dashboard 28

29 ü Historical Incidents Data ü News and Media ü Regulatory Information NEXT Analytical Information Consumer Complaints from social media Recipes and Label Data Climate data TO HAVE PREDICTIVE MODEL BUSINESS SPECIFIC 29

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