Analysing the status quo of CDM projects Status and prospects

Transcription

1 Analysing the status quo of CDM projects Status and prospects Authors: Carsten Warnecke 1, Thomas Day 1 and Noémie Klein 2 1 NewClimate Institute, 2 Ecofys May 2015

2 Analysing the status quo of CDM projects Status and prospects Project number CLIDE13832 (Ecofys) / (NewClimate Institute) Ecofys / NewClimate Institute 2015 by order of German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (BMUB) Disclaimer This document was written as part of an on-going research work for the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear Safety (BMUB) in the framework of the Umweltforschungsplan (FKZ UM ). This document presents the data available at the time of writing. The views expressed in this document represent only the views of the authors and not necessarily those of the BMUB. Download the complete report:

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4 Highlights 1% 1% 2% 6% <1% Fully implemented Implementation / construction started Project implementation status 8 Investment decision made Planning phase No implementation planned Dismantling of implemented activity I do not know. In regular operation Regular operation temporarily stopped Regular operation permanently stopped Regular operation not started, no GHG mitigation No CDM-conformant operation, alternative GHG mitigation equipment operating I do not know 1% 1% 1 3% CDM component operational status 79%

5 7% 4% 14% 4% CDM monitoring system 67% Not implemented yet Implemented and operational Implemented but operation temporarily stopped Implemented but operation permanently stopped (e.g. dismantled) I do not know. NA. Mitigation activity not technically implemented Project Type / Country Proportion of projects where the CDM component of the mitigation activity is: fully implemented in regular operation with operational monitoring system EE own generation 96% 93% 80% Fossil fuel switch 96% 81% 4 Wind 93% 92% 81% Coal bed/mine methane 86% 71% 50% Solar 86% 80% 51% Hydro 83% 81% 71% Cement 82% 74% 72% EE industry 82% 72% 52% Biomass energy 81% 63% 52% Methane avoidance 72% 48% 39% HFCs 69% 69% 34% Landfill gas 63% 54% 46% N2O 62% 49% 2 EE households 60% 58% 26% South Korea 98% 73% 69% Thailand 97% 71% 63% China 91% 89% 77% India 88% 81% 61% Indonesia 76% 58% 42% Brazil 7 39% 29% Vietnam 74% 73% 58% Central America 70% 69% 47% Malaysia 68% 58% 44% Israel 61% 53% 39% Chile 59% 5 42% Peru 58% 53% 29% Colombia % South Africa 52% 3 32% Sub-Saharan Africa 46% 36% 30% Mexico 2 28% 26% 23%

6 Highlights 50% 4 40% 3 30% 2 20% 1 10% 0% Responses: 543 Error margin: 10% CER revenues still sufficient CDM still required to overcome non-financial barriers A stop of the GHG mitigation equipment does not result in cost savings The investment (decision) is irreversible. Continuation is required due to binding legal contracts. Continuation is required by national laws or regulations. Project activity / emission source will be covered under an ETS Expectations exist to receive alt. support or convert to alt. project scheme Other reason.

7 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Responses: 624 Error margin: 11% CDM activity is discontinued already before the end of the crediting period. CDM activity will aim for renewed crediting period. GHG activity will be continued outside the CDM but with alternative support. GHG mitigation to continue outside the CDM without alternative support. GHG mitigation activity will be continued but technically modified. GHG mitigation activity will be stopped. GHG mitigation equipment will reach the end of technical lifetime. No plans for conversion Acceptance under a voluntary standard considered. Acceptance under a domestic standard considered. Seeking conversion opportunities into NMM activities. Seeking conversion opportunities into international non-market-based activities. Other conversion plans 1% 16% 4% 8% Conversion plans 62% Unsure 18% Yes. 26% Cancellation of registration considered 56% No. I do not know.

8 Highlights <1% <1% 10% <1% 2% Any price < % 29% Required CER price for continuation 51% > 20 No price Unsure Positive return already received Positive return still expected Positive return not expected Unsure 3 Positive return on investment 26% Responses: 552 Error margin: 10% 20% 19%

9 2 20% 1 10% 0% Technical barriers Political situation Administrative barriers Access to knowledge Responses: 670 Error margin: 10% Uncertainty around CDM procedures and requirements Costs related to CDM procedures and requirements Availability of third parties Data availability Access to up-front finance 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Responses: 552 Error margin: 10% Support in identifying international support (programmes) Support for direct marketing of CERs CDM reform Capacity building Other 2% Such possibilities are unknown. Such possibilities are known but an application was not considered. 38% Purchase facility application 5 An application is being considered or is in preparation. An application was submitted. Responses: 535 Error margin: 11%

10 3 Analysis of the non-evaluated projects indicates that the upper end of this range is more likely.

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12 Ecofys Germany GmbH Am Wassermann Cologne Germany T +49 (0) F +49 (0) E info@ecofys.com NewClimate Institute Am Hof Cologne Germany T +49 (0) F +49 (0) E info@newclimate.org