Cost as An Independent Variable (CAIV) Trades Using COCOMO II

Transcription

1 Cost as An Independent Variable (CAIV) Trades Using COCOMO II Lori Vaughan, Marilee Wheaton and Steven Wong S&ITG Office of Cost Estimation, Telephone: The Fourth Ground System Architectures Workshop February 23-25, 2000 The Aerospace Corporation El Segundo, California Copyright 1999, TRW Inc. All rights reserved. This document is the property of TRW Inc. It & the information it contains are furnished for the sole use of TRW and its customers. Reproduction in any form and/or the commercial use for any purpose are prohibited unless the prior written consent of TRW Inc. has been obtained. 1

2 Introduction Acquisition Changes CAIV Background Problem Statement COCOMO II Case Study Risk Considerations Summary 2

3 Acquisition Changes CAIV SOW Clauses SSEB CAIV Criteria Performance Specifications Requirements that State Basic Warfighter s Needs Performance Trade Space Key Performance Parameters/Criteria Performance Thresholds and Objectives Best Performance Within Available Resources MilSpec Reform COTS and Commercial Practices Integrated Product Team Management Past Performance Emphasis 3

4 CAIV Implementation Aggressive Life Cycle Cost Objectives Continuous Search for Cost Tradeoff Opportunities Throughout the Life Cycle Managing Risks Address Supportability Early Program Plans that Incentivize Cost Trades and Cost Reductions Empowerment to Implement Changes Process Improvements Technology Changes Competitive Forces 4

5 CAIV Trade Study Process Analyze Requirements Determine Measures of Effectiveness Determine Trade Space Identify Cost and Risk Drivers Identify Alternative Solutions Evaluate Total Ownership Costs Interpret Comparative Results Document Results and Recommendations 5

6 Determine Trade Space Marginal Improvement Performance X X X X Minimum Cost Solution X Best Value Solution Trade Space Objective Performance Threshold Performance Cost Objective Cost Threshold Cost 6

7 Problem Statement Task: Replace and up-grade an existing analyst workstation Challenges: Project must be completed in 30 months Fixed cost not to exceed $7 Million Scope must be flexible to accommodate upgrades New system must be seamlessly integrated into legacy environment 7

8 Case Study Setup CUSTOM Reuse data extraction code from previous analyst workstation project COTS Reuse data extraction code from previous analyst workstation project In-House Developed Database Engine Vendor relational database engine 8

9 COSTAR COCOMO II Custom Study 9

10 Custom Study Size Report 10

11 Custom Study Structure Report 11

12 Custom Study Archive Report Information 12

13 Custom Study Archive Report Continued 13

14 COSTAR COCOMOII COTS Study 14

15 COTS Case Study Size Report 15

16 COTS Case Study Structure Report 16

17 COTS Case Study Archive Report 17

18 COTS Case Study Archive Report Continued 18

19 COSTAR Estimate Comparison Costar 5.01 ******* Esti mate Comparison Report ******* Page: 1 Estimate Name/ID: CAIV_COTS PROJ Process Model: COCOMO 10/11/99 Database Name/ID: COCOMO_II Development Mode: n/a 9:07: Estimate Name CAIV_COTS CAIV_CUSTM2 Estimate ID PROJ PROJ Development Mode n/a n/a Filename CAIVTRAD.CST CAIVTRD2.CST Database Name COCOMO_II.98 COCOMO_II.98 Database ID Database Type COCOMO II COCOMO II Increments 1 1 Estimate Summary (RQ to IT) Total DSI 67,447 87,053 Sub-Total Cost RQ to IT (K$) 5,776 6,898 COTS SW license Total Cost 5,976 6,898 Total Effort RQ to IT Total Duration (Months) Productivity (DSI/SM) Unit Cost ($/DSI)

20 Maintenance Estimate Comparison Maintenance COTS CUSTOM Total DSI Maintained 66, ,111 Annual Cost (K$) COTS annual (K $) Grand Total Annual (K$) Staff-Months per Year Average Staffing

21 Case Study Trade Space Requirements Satisfied 100% COTS COTS Vendor Solutions/ New Dev Reuse/ NewDev COTS/Reuse Budget Limit 100% New Dev Objective / Goal Threshold Development Cost 21

22 Identify Cost and Risk Drivers Acquisition Cost/Risk Drivers Key Performance Parameters (KPPs) Non-KPP User Requirements Derived Requirements Integration and Test Drivers Support Requirements Technology Risk External Interfaces System Scope Acquisition Assumptions Legacy System Operations Operations and Maintenance Transition and Cut-over Costs Disposal Other Total Ownership Cost and Risk Drivers Operations Maintenance Licensing Support Facilities Non-Contract Customer Costs and Risks (e.g. GFE) Technology Insertion Product Obsolescence Packaging and Shipping Transportation Disposal 22

23 COTS vs Custom Some potential differences Analyze Design Implement Integrate Test Deliver Sustain Cost Factor * COTS Custom Marketing research Selection Analysis Design/Tailoring Implementation Interfaces/Integration Security Licenses Technical support Testing System Cut-Over Training Upgrades Replacement $$$ $$$ $ $ $$$??? $$$ $$ $$ $$$ $$ $$ $ $ $ $$$ $$$ $$??? $ $$ $$S $$ $$ $ $$ Most factors are project dependent * Cost of COTS versus Custom development needs to be evaluated across life-cycle Copyright 1999 by The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. Used with permission. 23

24 COTS What are some obvious risk areas? Cost - it s not always cheaper The cost of integration, licenses, upgrades, customizations, testing, training and cutover are all variable costs that must be compared to the custom alternative for a true picture Schedule - it is not always faster If application needs to be tightly coupled then need to account for integration and system test time Vendors announce products prematurely, deliver upgrades late Requirements - you can t always get what you want (e.g., security) Sometimes you get too much - unnecessary functionality Vendor relations - Did we pick the right product? Will the vendor stay in business? respond to my needs? Copyright 1999 by The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved. Used with permission. 24

25 Risk Sensitivity Chart LOC Uncertainty Minimum Schedule/ Worst Factors Effort (Cost) Environment Uncertainty Nominal Schedule/ Best Factors -3σ Nominal +3σ Size 25

26 Case Study Sensitivity LOC Uncertainty Effort (Cost) Environment Uncertainty COTS/Reuse Point Estimate Reuse/New Dev Point Estimate Size 26

27 Summary Acquisition changes are emphasizing COTS and commercial practices Need to evaluate COTS incorporation as part of LCC and CAIV trades COTS selection process needs to include decision making, risk identification and risk mitigation planning Key tenet is not to buy-in to unrealistic expectations for COTS utilization 27

28 References Risk Analysis Using Parametric Cost Models, Iva Voldase, ISPA/SCEA International Conference, 1998 Satellite Ground System Cost Benefit Trade-Offs of Commercial Off the Shelf Items using Parametric Cost Models, Iva Voldase, Ground Systems Architecture Workshop (GSAW), 1999 CAIV Implementation, Paul Davis, Internal TRW Briefing, 1999 COSTAR User s Manual, SOFTSTAR Systems, 1997 USC COCOMO II Reference Manual, USC-CSE, 1999 COTS Acquisition: Issues, Risk Mitigation, and Lessons Learned, Audrey Taub, Space Systems Cost Analysis Group,