The DecisionTools Suite

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1 The DecisionTools Suite Your Complete Risk and Decision Analysis Toolkit! There are many risk and decision analysis tools on the market today. But most of them focus on one specific analytical technique, like simulation or decision trees. And most of them are tailored to a specific industry need, such as insurance claims modelling or oil prospecting. Furthermore, these tools can run tens of thousands, even millions of dollars. What you need is an integrated set of tools that combine the best analytical methods, can be applied to different problems, and that is reasonably priced. Look no further than the DecisionTools Suite! DecisionTools That Work Together The DecisionTools Suite is an integrated set of products designed to work together to provide combined analyses and maximum functionality - optimum decision analysis in one package! The DecisionTools Suite brings together up to seven?/sup>, TopRank?/sup>, PrecisionTree RISKOptimizer?/sup>, BestFit?/sup>, RISKview, Installation is fast and easy, using a single CD-ROM. The programs themselves have been designed to work together in an integrated environment, running from a common toolbar in Microsoft Excel. With the DecisionTools Suite, you can perform advanced analyses 4.5's advanced graphing is just one of the powerful analyses you'll perform with the DecisionTools Suite! Click to view larger graphic. could not perform with any single product. Create a decision tree in PrecisionTree, then to run a Risk Analysis on it. Take data stored in another workbook, use BestFit to find the distribution that fits that data, and use the distribution The DecisionTools Suite includes the following products: "DecisionTools is a really important suite of tools, and I applaud Palisade's effort to better integrate some of them into modeling framework." Bruce Siegel, Engineering and Business Process Consultant, Los Gatos, (Professional Edition) The Risk Analysis and Simulation add-in for adds the power of Monte Carlo simulation to any spreadsheet model. Replace uncertain values in your spreadsheet functions which represent a range of possible values. Select one or more bottom-line cells as outputs, and start a recalculates your spreadsheet hundreds or even thousands of times, each time selecting random values from functions you ve entered. The result: a distribution of possible outcomes and the probability of getting those results. This not only tells you what could happen in a given situation, but how likely it is that it will happen. Results can be displayed as high-resolution graphs and in a full statistical report. Advanced features include Sensitivity and

2 Scenario Analyses, overlay graphs, and multiple summary graphs. The DecisionTools Suite comes 4.5 Professional, which integrates RISKview 4.5 for distribution viewing, and BestFit 4.5 for distribution fitting (see below). 4.5 runs up to ten times faster than previous versions, and includes an intuitive Microsoft Office-style interface. PrecisionTree (Standard or Professional Edition) The Decision Analysis add-in for Excel. Create influence diagrams and decision trees right in your existing spreadsheets! Use influence diagrams to see the relationships between components of a problem, then decision trees to model the sequence of events. Results include a full statistical report and risk profile graphs. Sensitivity Analysis tells you which factors in your decision are most important. Advanced features include linked trees, logic nodes, and reference nodes. PrecisionTree Pro adds policy suggestion graphs and strategy region graphs! TopRank (Standard or Professional Edition) The What-if Analysis add-in for Excel. Take any spreadsheet and TopRank automatically determines which cells affect results the most and ranks them in order of importance. Results can be displayed as Tornado graphs and in a full statistical report. Advanced features include a What-if Wizard, Multi-Way What-if Analysis, and support for data tables. TopRank Pro features unlimited Multi-Way What-if Analysis. RISKOptimizer (Industrial Edition) The simulation and optimisation solution for Excel. Optimise models to find the best possible solution to your problem! RISKOptimizer combines genetic algorithm optimisation with Monte Carlo simulation to find the best possible combination of factors to lead to a desired result. For instance, you could find the optimal combination of projects to maximise your firm s profits. Available in the DecisionTools Suite Industrial. BestFit The distribution fitting solution for Windows. BestFit takes data (now up to 100,000 points or pairs with BestFit 4.5) and finds the distribution function that best fits that data. BestFit accepts three types of data: sample, density, and cumulative. BestFit tests up to 26 distribution types using advanced optimisation algorithms. Results are displayed graphically and through a statistical report which includes goodness-of-fit statistics. BestFit 4.5 offers complete control over fitting parameters, and offers new graphics and an Office-style interface. BestFit distributions can be used directly TopRank, or PrecisionTree models. The DecisionTools Suite includes BestFit fully integrated 4.5, and also as a stand-alone application. RISKview The distribution viewing companion program. It is a powerful tool for viewing, assessing, and creating probability distributions. Draw distribution functions with the Distribution Artist and place them models as General distributions. RISKview also calculates the distribution that best fits your hand-drawn curve from 37 distribution types! Now RISKview 4.5 offers sharper graphics than ever before, sliding delimiters on graphs, and overlay graphs. The DecisionTools Suite includes RISKview integrated 4.5, and also as a stand-alone The parallel-processing solution for faster simulations. Speed up large simulations by using all CPUs in a multi-cpu machine. If your PC has two processors, your simulations will run nearly twice as fast! Industrial lets you take full advantage of the additional processing speed available with increasingly popular multi-processor machines. Standard, Professional, and Industrial Suite Versions Available The DecisionTools Suite comes in three versions Standard, Professional and Industrial. All versions 4.5 Professional, BestFit 4.5, and

3 RISKview 4.5. The Standard version adds the standard versions of TopRank and PrecisionTree, while the Professional and Industrial versions include the professional versions of these programs. DecisionTools Industrial adds RISKOptimizer Industrial as well as to utilise all available CPUs in a single machine during simulation. DecisionTools Suite Features Easy installation from one CD Common Excel toolbar to access all programs DecisionTools Suite Available in Three Editions! Designed to work together to provide integrated risk and decision - Risk Analysis PrecisionTree - Decision Analysis TopRank - What-if Analysis RISKOptimizer - Optimisation with Simulation BestFit - Distribution Fitting Standard 4.5 Pro, BestFit 4.5, RISKview 4.5, PrecisionTree Standard, TopRank Standard RISKview - Distribution - parallel processing to speed up simulations Standard, Professional, and Industrial Versions Available Great value - save up to 40% versus buying component products separately! Professional 4.5 Pro, BestFit 4.5, RISKview 4.5, PrecisionTree Pro, TopRank Pro DecisionTools Suite Example: The Restaurant Franchise Problem Consider the venture of opening a new fast food franchise in your city. Do you build a restaurant with a drive-thru window, a playground, both, or neither? To begin, you need to determine the costs involved to see if you can afford the project. You also need to determine the best size of restaurant to build in order to maximise profits in the long run. Start by building a spreadsheet in Microsoft Excel. You model could calculate how much it will cost to build a restaurant with a drive-thru window and a playground. Building materials and other costs are also accounted for. 4.5 Pro, BestFit 4.5, RISKview 4.5, PrecisionTree Pro, TopRank Pro, RISKOptimizer Industrial, Step 1: TopRank for What-If Analysis First, run TopRank on your model to determine the critical inputs. There are over 30 variables in your model, but after running TopRank you see that only five have a major impact on the cost of the project: cement cost (Q1), equipment, cement cost (Q2), furniture, and labor. You decide to concentrate on these variables for your Risk Analysis. By using TopRank, you reduced the amount of distributions you need to define for your risk analysis by over 80%!

4 Step 2: BestFit for Data Fitting To run a Risk Analysis you need to replace those five variables identified by TopRank probability distribution functions. With historical data for these values available from previous restaurant construction projects, you feed these data sets into BestFit to get distribution functions for each data set. BestFit s confidence levels and critical values guarantee that you have accurately fitted distributions for model. Step 3: RISKview for Distribution Previewing Now, replace the five values in your model with the functions BestFit returned. However, you have recently got information from your furniture outlet that prices have been dropping lately, and now you need to reflect this information in the distribution that you are using for furniture price. RISKview allows you to take a look at the distribution you are using and try BestFit 4.5 gives you stunning graphs and more fitting options than ever. Click to view larger graphic. different parameters or functions to find a distribution that more accurately fits the situation. Step for Risk Analysis You are now ready to run a results show that there is an 88% chance the project will stay within your budget, and an 11% chance it will actually cost less than your "best-case scenario". In terms of cost, you are ready to go ahead with the project. Step 5: PrecisionTree Runs a Decision Analysis Having determined that you can build a fast food restaurant within your budget, you need to decide whether to build a drive-thru window and/or a playground. You build a decision tree in PrecisionTree modelling the costs for obtaining a building permit for the various types of restaurants, as well as estimates for profit potential after five years. Your results indicate that building a medium-sized restaurant with a drive-thru window and a playground is your optimal decision. Step & PrecisionTree for Advanced Analysis What about uncertain factors in your decision tree? Run a Risk Analysis on your decision tree You replace your profit and cost estimates functions. Next, simulate your decision tree The results confirm that building a restaurant with a drive-thru window and a playground will maximise profits, with a 12% probability of making more money than you possibly thought you could! Step 7: RISKOptimizer for the Best Solution Now let s take another look at the model. You have defined five uncontrollable cost variables using probability distribution functions, but there are many controllable factors in your model that could affect the project s total cost. For example, you must decide how many people to hire, how much furniture to buy, how much cement to use. analysis only accounted for scenarios at a single state of those controllable variables. Use RISKOptimizer to determine the optimal allocation of resources for personnel, furniture, and cement subject to constraints such as total budget and cement safety minimums. By having RISKOptimizer try many different combinations and simulate each one you find that you can build the restaurant cheaper than you originally thought!

5 Become a Decision Analysis Expert! The DecisionTools Suite comes with a wide variety of resources to help you get started and overcome problems. Comprehensive multimedia tutorials walk you through the features RISKOptimizer, PrecisionTree and TopRank and demonstrate how to set up and run models, step-by-step. The users manual for each application is written in straightforward, plain English and even provides background information on Risk Analysis, Decision Analysis and other techniques. All manuals are also available electronically in the on-line Help 4.5 features a comprehensive, context-sensitive Help file to zero in your question. You can search on a particular topic, or simply ask a plain English question using the How Do I... feature! Finally, example files are provided for all programs that can be used as templates for building your own model. If you would like further resources, Palisade carries a number of books on how to get the most from the DecisionTools Suite (see below). We also offer Software Training Seminars and customised on-site training classes on the DecisionTools Suite worldwide. These classes provide hands-on training on how to use the software, and teach valuable model-building techniques. Visit the seminar pages for more details and the latest seminar schedule! Call for details!