How to Build Better Homes for Less Money

Transcription

1 How to Build Better Homes for Less Money Applying Lessons from NASA and Major League Baseball Presented by: Cy Kilbourn 1

2 Audience Survey Raters Providers Builders Efficiency Program Personnel Utility Personnel Others? 2

3 What makes a Better Home? 3

4 What makes a Better Home? Comfort Energy Efficiency Low Cost of Ownership Low Environmental Impact 4

5 Features 16+ SEER Air Conditioner High R Envelope R60 Attic Insulation Low blower-door results Heat Recovery Ventilator The Real Benefits of Features 5

6 The Real Benefits of Features Features 16 SEER Air Conditioner High R Envelope R60 Attic Insulation Quality Air Sealing Heat Recovery Ventilator Benefits Low Cost of Ownership Comfortable Living Low Environmental Impact Resale Value 6

7 How to Build a Better Home Audience Poll: Raise your hand if you think building a better home means spending more money. 7

8 How to Build a Better Home: The Typical Path 14 SEER 16 SEER Better Home = More Expensive Home 8

9 How to Build a Better Home: The Typical Path 14 SEER 16 SEER Is there a better way? Better Home = More Expensive Home 9

10 Let s talk baseball 10

11 Oakland: 2002 The Problem: Build a better team with less money than the competition (~1/3 of the max league salary total). Oakland Budget League Max 11

12 Oakland: 2002 The Problem: Build a better team with less money than the competition (~1/3 of the max league salary total). The Solution? 12

13 Oakland: 2002 The Problem: Build a better team with less money than the competition (~1/3 of the max league salary total). The Solution? 13

14 Oakland: 2002 The Problem: Build a better team with less money than the competition (~1/3 of the max league salary total). The Solution? Moneyball - Sabermetrics. Using superior analysis to put undervalued players together to form a better performing team. 14

15 The Moneyball Solution Your goal shouldn t be to buy players, your goal should be to buy wins. Billy Beane, GM Oakland Athletics 15

16 How it works 1. Determine success metrics and constraints Maximize wins at lowest salary 2. Predict performance based on available information H + BB Runs Created = TB AB + BB 3. Run a system optimization 16

17 Losses Best in the MLB MLB Wins vs Payroll Phillies Marlins Rays Tigers Red Sox 75 Astros 70 Dodgers 65 Pirates 60 Cardinals $ M $50 M $100 M $150 M $200 M $250 M $300 M Payroll 17

18 Losses Best in the MLB MLB Wins vs Payroll Phillies Marlins Rays Tigers Red Sox 75 Astros 70 Dodgers 65 Pirates 60 Cardinals $ M $50 M $100 M $150 M $200 M $250 M $300 M Payroll 18

19 Losses Best in the MLB MLB Wins vs Payroll Phillies Marlins Rays Tigers Red Sox 75 Astros 70 Dodgers 65 Pirates 60 Cardinals $ M $50 M $100 M $150 M $200 M $250 M $300 M Payroll 19

20 The Moneyball Solution Applied to Homebuilding It s all about the give and take: System, not components 20

21 Examples of Systems Approach in other Industries Computer chip design Robotics Structural engineering Rocket science 21

22 What is Rocket Science? Goal: Successful mission Parameters: Weight Size Fuel supply Comm systems Life support Route MANY more 22

23 What is Rocket Science? Literally BILLIONS of possible designs How can we choose the design with the highest probability of success? 23

24 How can we make the best decision? 1. Determine success metrics and constraints Low risk, low weight 2. Predict performance based on available information 3. Run a system optimization 24

25 What is Rocket Science? How can we make the best decisions? Determine evaluation criteria and simulate all your options. 25

26 Rocket Science --> Home Building Success Criteria Mission Success Probability Cost (Tax Dollars) Crew Safety Decisions to Make Spacecraft shape Communication system Fuel system Ground transport system Etc. 26

27 Rocket Science --> Home Building Success Criteria Mission Success Probability Cost (Tax Dollars) Crew Safety Cost HERS Score Comfort Level Energy Bills Decisions to Make Spacecraft shape Communication system Fuel system Ground transport system Etc. HVAC products Envelope insulation Window type Ventilation Lighting systems 27

28 Building a Home is Complex Too! Options for Wall Systems 2x4 or 2x6 (or more!) Advanced Framing 16 O.C. or 24 O.C. Fiberglass or Foam? R11, R13, R15, R19, R21 Exterior Continuous Insulation 28

29 Building a Home is Complex Too! Options for HVAC Furnace/AC or Heat Pump 14 SEER or 16 SEER 80, 92, or 96 AFUE Natural Gas, Propane, Electric? Single Speed or Variable? Proper sizing 29

30 Building a Home is Complex Too! Options for Water Heating Tankless, 50G, 80G Natural Gas or Electric EF (Energy Factor) Condensing? 30

31 Building a Home is Complex Too! Claims from Manufacturers Thousands of competing manufacturer claims. What do they mean? Who do you trust? 31

32 Building a Home is Complex Too! Other Parameters Goals: ENERGY STAR HERS Scores EFL LEED NGBS Focus on Energy Codes: IECC Current Code Future Code Local amendments Many compliance paths Incentives: Rebates Tax Credits Loans RECs 32

33 Re-use the same pattern! 1. Determine success metrics and constraints High performance, low cost 2. Predict performance based on available information HERS Rating Tools, builder cost estimates 3. Run a system optimization 33

34 Annual Utility Costs How Building Design Process Works Today Current design Capital Cost of Energy Related Components 34

35 Annual Utility Costs How Building Design Process Works Today Improved Design - Better Component Capital Cost of Energy Related Components 35

36 Annual Utility Costs Systems Optimization Approach Current design 2,400 Design Options: 6 wall types 5 roof types 5 window types 4 furnace type 4 air conditioner types Capital Cost of Energy Related Components 36

37 Annual Utility Costs Systems Optimization Approach 2,400 Design Options: 6 wall types 5 roof types 5 window types 4 furnace type 4 air conditioner types Capital Cost of Energy Related Components 37

38 Annual Utility Costs Systems Optimization Approach Code line 2,400 Design Options: 6 wall types 5 roof types 5 window types 4 furnace type 4 air conditioner types Capital Cost of Energy Related Components 38

39 Annual Utility Costs Systems Optimization Approach Reduce Cost Code line 2,400 Design Options: 6 wall types 5 roof types 5 window types 4 furnace type 4 air conditioner types Capital Cost of Energy Related Components 39

40 Annual Utility Costs Systems Optimization Approach Reduce Cost A Combination Code line 2,400 Design Options: 6 wall types 5 roof types 5 window types 4 furnace type 4 air conditioner types Increase Efficiency Capital Cost of Energy Related Components 40

41 Annual Utility Costs Systems Optimization Approach Reduce Cost A Combination Code line 2,400 Design Options: 6 wall types 5 roof types 5 window types 4 furnace type 4 air conditioner types Better Home for Less Money Increase Efficiency Capital Cost of Energy Related Components 41

42 Losses Best in the MLB MLB Wins vs Payroll Phillies Marlins Rays Tigers Red Sox 75 Astros 70 Dodgers 65 Pirates 60 Cardinals $ M $50 M $100 M $150 M $200 M $250 M $300 M Payroll 42

43 Does this really make a difference? Real Scenarios 43

44 Survey Question In a 5,000 ft 2 house in Indianapolis, how much does using R15 walls instead of R13 save a homeowner per month? A. More than $50 B. $25 - $50 C. $10 - $25 D. $5 10 E. Less than $5 44

45 Wall Insulation Diminishing Returns $ $90.00 $80.00 $70.00 $98 $ Lost Through Wall per Month $60.00 $50.00 $40.00 $30.00 $20.00 $54 $43 $37 $33 $30 Only Save $1/month with R15 Walls. $27 $26 $21 $20 $ (2x4) 3 (2x4) 5 (2x4) 7 (2x4) 9 (2x4) 11 (2x4) 13 (2x4) 15 (2x4) 17 (2x6) 19 (2x6) Cavity Insulation R-Value 45

46 Component Tradeoffs Real Scenario #1 $25 Monthly Utility Bill Savings $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 R-13 Walls R-15 Walls Electric WH NG Tankless 46

47 Component Tradeoffs Real Scenario #1 $25 Monthly Utility Bill Savings $20 $15 Equal Construction Cost $10 $5 $0 R-13 Walls R-15 Walls Electric WH NG Tankless 47

48 Component Tradeoffs Real Scenario #2 $35 Monthly Utility Bill Savings $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 R-38 Attic R-49 Attic 92 AFUE, 14 SEER 16 SEER Heat Pump 48

49 Component Tradeoffs Real Scenario #2 $35 $30 $25 $20 Monthly Utility Bill Savings Equal Construction Cost $15 $10 $5 $0 R-38 Attic R-49 Attic 92 AFUE, 14 SEER 16 SEER Heat Pump 49

50 Component Tradeoffs Real Scenario #3 $4 Monthly Utility Bill Savings $3 $2 $1 $0 R-6 Ducts R-8 Ducts 75% CFLs 95% CFLs 50

51 Component Tradeoffs Real Scenario #3 $4 Monthly Utility Bill Savings $3 $175 less expensive $2 $1 $0 R-6 Ducts R-8 Ducts 75% CFLs 95% CFLs 51

52 A Real Example Project in New Mexico *7 base plans; ~80 homes 52

53 A Real Example Project in New Mexico 1. Baseline (HERS 58) Option 3 (HERS 61) Option 5 (HERS 58) Option 6 (HERS 57) Option 8 (HERS 55) Total Cost Change $6.35MM $5.81MM $5.85MM $5.89MM $5.97MM = changes from Baseline spec (components not shown do NOT change) Attic Insulation R49 Blown R30 Blown R38 Blown R49 Blown Slab R23 ICF + R5 Under R5 Footer R10 Footer R10 Footer + R5 Under Above Grade Wall 2x6 R EPS 2x4 R13 + R6 Insulated Sheathing Cooling 15 SEER A/C 13 SEER A/C Heating 95.5 AFUE Furnace 92 AFUE Furnace 95.5 AFUE Furnace Water Heater 50 Gal NG 50 Gallon GE GeoSpring Hybrid Electric NG Tankless (0.95 EF) 53

54 10 Builder Case Study Data collected from projects with 10 production builders. Purpose: to evaluate average per home savings potential for residential production-build companies when using Ekotrope s energy spec optimization method. 54

55 10 Builder Case Study Results Figure 1 Per-home construction cost savings and profit margin increase for the 10 builders in the study. Figure 2 Savings on every per-home for 10 builders in the study. Energy price escalation is included in the 30 year savings calculations as estimated by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. 55

56 10 Builder Case Study Results Construction cost savings range: $400 - $6,680 per home Results in an average profit margin increase of 13% Energy savings range: 5% - 25% Average 30 year energy bill savings: $9,100 per home Key assumptions: 2% annual electric price escalation 2.5% annual natural gas price escalation 56

57 Parting Question Are we making optimal design decisions? 57

58 Thank you! Cy Kilbourn Co-Founder, Director of Engineering