Dwelling Opportunities Analysis for Warringah Council

Transcription

1 Dwelling Opportunities Analysis for Warringah Council Prepared by i.d (informed decisions) September 2006 copyright i.d (informed decisions) 0

2 CONTENTS 1. Background Context Approach How households are changing in Warringah Household types Emerging household types How dwelling stock is changing in Warringah...11 Dwelling types How age structure is changing in Warringah Warringah s Changing Age Structure Warringah s Forecast Age Structure Who is living in what type of household and dwelling? Young Couple without Children Households Older Couples without Children Households Older Lone Person Households Young Couples with Children Households Migration Patterns in Warringah Where residential development is occurring in Warringah Residential Development Opportunity Analysis Opportunity for Residential Development in the Designated Activity Centres Centre Residential Development Opportunity Assessment - Method Dwelling Density Assumptions Centres Residential Development Opportunity Scenario - Assumptions Land and Residential Density Development ASSUMPTIONS by Centre Centres Residential Development Opportunity Scenario RESULTS Major Development Site Supply Assessment Demolition & Replacement Opportunity Assessment Medium density areas outside of Activity Centres Opportunity Assessment Dwelling Opportunity Summary for Warringah Council area Housing Opportunities in Warringah...59 copyright.id (informed decisions) June

3 1. Background Through five of its key directions the Metropolitan Strategy for the Sydney Greater Metropolitan Region (Infrastructure, Planning and Natural Resources, 2005) encourages the following: 1. Plan for Balanced Growth within Natural Resource Constraints; 2. Manage Growth and Value Non-Urban Areas; 3. Build Liveable New Communities; 4. Renew Existing Area; 5. Strengthen Employment Centres and Precincts In 1995, the Department of Urban Affairs and Planning (DUAP) removed part of its primary urban consolidation tool (i.e. dual occupancy subdivision) and invited all Sydney Metropolitan Councils to prepare their own Residential Development Strategies (RDS) to address the need for increased housing and housing choice in Metropolitan Sydney. Although no housing targets were provided by DUAP, many Councils prepared their Residential Strategies using DUAP s Population Projections (1995). This approach was consistent with the Residential Strategies guide prepared by DUAP which saw the challenge as providing over 500,000 new dwellings, as being required to accommodate Sydney s growth by the year Warringah Council first adopted its RDS in This was reviewed in November Since then, detailed reporting on dwelling approvals has been carried out on a six monthly basis to identify, in more precise terms, the level of development potential remaining in Warringah. The work has revealed that this potential was significantly underestimated in the past. The updated figures provide a more accurate source of information and indicate that the potential and choice previously accepted by DUAP can be achieved by perusing all identified elements of the RDS in a staged approach. Summary of Approved RDS v Revised Calculations Number of New Dwellings Component Projections made in 1998 Likely Total Development by 2021* Max. Dwelling Capacity (Total as at ) Medium Density Areas 2,000 3,150 3,500 Shop Top Housing 400 (village areas) Shop top housing Not Estimated Subdivision (conventional) Not Estimated Dee Why Town Centre 1,200 1,220 1,220 (excl. over 400 dwells. already approved) Urban Villages 2, (in the short term) Unique Development Sites Non Urban Lands Study (in the short term) Perentie & Dawes Road Not Estimated Hayman & Ellis Rezoning Not Estimated 70 (approx.) 70 (approx.) Total 6,200 6,820 7,430 Based on 90% of total maximum potential except where otherwise shown Source: Warringah Council Residential Development Strategy 2000 copyright.id (informed decisions) June

4 The figure of 7,430 dwellings between would mean that Council will achieve approximately 11,300-11,800 dwellings in the period This assumes that 90% of the infill capacity will be taken up in this period and that 100% of the capacity in the Dee Why town centre is also taken up. These are not unrealistic assumptions to make; however, there are many factors that may impact upon these in the long term. The work following provides important input into Council s assessment of dwelling opportunities in Warringah Council by taking account of recent and likely future trends in the demand for and supply of dwellings in Warringah. 2. Context Council s RDS supports facilitating and encouraging higher-density housing close to public transport, commercial and community facilities, without impacting adversely on the amenity and character of the surrounding areas and at the same time refers to the importance of discouraging land use and development which would have a detrimental effect on Warringah s environmental and conservation values, heritage values and neighbourhood character. Key issues of the RDS are outlined (in italics) below. Redevelopment of the Dee Why Town Centre as a mixed commercial and residential precinct; Urban villages around suitable neighbourhood shopping centres; Infill development of existing apartment areas Similar directives are also described in Living Warringah: In Focus (November 2005). Warringah s residential development objectives may be summarised into 3 main points as follows: To increase dwelling diversity in key locations across the municipality to: 1. meet the needs of the municipality s changing household types; 2. sustain our population and services base; and 3. to protect the Local Government Area s key residential areas from inappropriate development. This work is guided by these key points by looking at the demand for dwellings and supply of dwellings in Warringah; how that has changed over time; and how it is likely to change in future. Information is presented in the context of the residential role and function of Warringah within the metropolitan area (and Warringah s immediate region). copyright.id (informed decisions) June

5 3. Approach The approach to the work is based on developing an understanding of the following: 1. Warringah Council s housing consumption patterns both in relation to residential supply and demand by addressing the following questions: How are households changing in Warringah? How is the dwelling stock changing in Warringah? Who is living in what type of household and dwelling in Warringah? How is age structure changing in Warringah? Who is leaving Warringah and why? 2. The residential development opportunities of activity centres, redevelopment sites and underutilised residential lots within Warringah Council to accommodate additional households by addressing the following questions: Where residential development is occurring in Warringah What are the residential opportunities in designated activity centres in Warringah; What are the residential opportunities on redevelopment sites within Warringah What are the residential opportunities on underutilised residential lots in Warringah? The opportunities analysis provides a starting point from which strategic planners can assess opportunities for residential development, given the policy framework set out by the Metropolitan Strategy document. copyright.id (informed decisions) June

6 4. How households are changing in Warringah The types of households that are most prevalent in Australian cities are typically family households, most notably couples with children. Yet, as most public policy planning and housing decision makers now recognise, family households (at least in most established areas), are decreasing in numbers while smaller household types (couples without children and lone person households) are on the rise. This trend is the result of a combination of social and demographic change occurring in Australia. The analysis in this section uses the latest Census data to identify the dominant and key emerging household types in the Warringah Local Government Area (LGA). Dominant household types is based on absolute numbers of the major household types and key emerging is based on change over the past 10 year period 1991 to This analysis identifies how household types are changing, based on broad demographic trends, as well as any apparent changes to the residential role and function of Warringah Council within the context of metropolitan area. 4.1 Household types The share of household types in Warringah reflects a similar profile to the Sydney metropolitan average, with couple with children households dominating, followed by couples without children and lone person households. Share of household types Warringah (A) & Metropolitan Sydney 2001 Share 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% Warringah C ouncil area Sy dney SD 0.0% Couples with children Single parent families Couples Lone person w ithout children households Household Type Group households Other households Source: Derived from ABS 2001 Census data In terms of net change for Warringah, growth has occurred primarily in the smaller household types Couple without children and Lone person households, which is in line with broader metropolitan trends and is not unique to Warringah. Over the same period, there has been some decline in the number of Couple with children households in Warringah. The increase of couples without children households is probably driven by a combination of ageing, whereby the children of more mature family household have been leaving home. There has also been a minor gain in single parent families, which is a reflection on marital/partnering breakdown. This is also a trend experienced across the metropolitan area. copyright.id (informed decisions) June

7 Net change in household types Warringah (A) Net change 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Couples with Single parent C ouples without Lone person Group Other children families children households households households Household Type Source: Derived from ABS 1991 & 2001 Census data While this is likely to be a result of broader demographic and social trends, it is also in some part due to the changing residential role and function of Warringah. The diagram below outlines a broad description of household pathways and the points at which household structures change. Traditional Pathway Diagram copyright.id (informed decisions) June

8 The sorts of households that people live in and changing preferences over time affects the way in which a population changes and is reflected in the changing age structure of an area. The traditional path has been to start as a child in a family household, move into a group or lone person household as a young adult, becoming a part of a couple relationship within 5-10 years. Rearing of children is followed by an empty-nester period (older couples without children) and ultimately being an elderly lone person, as partners die. The traditional path is changing with an increasing preference for people to live alone or as a couple without children. This has implications for the types of dwellings in demand. While in absolute numbers the two parent family is the most significant in Warringah, the key emerging household type are the smaller household types. These emerging household types are therefore further explored. The data is presented for each of the key emerging household types by age to provide further insight into the residential role and function of Warringah and how housing demand patterns may be changing. For example, service providers and housing policy decision makers (and the housing industry for that matter) know that there is a significant difference in the consumption patterns and housing and servicing needs between young lone person and older lone person households. Further a young couple without children household is likely to have significantly different needs and values to an empty nester household (old couples without children). PLEASE NOTE: The household type evidence in this report is presented in age groups as follows: Households w/o children at home: young = 15-44, Middle = 45-64, Older = 65+ Young families = with children exclusively under age of 15 years Older families = with children exclusively over age of 15 Mature families = with children both under and over 15 years copyright.id (informed decisions) June

9 4.2 Emerging household types The chart below presents a comparison of the share of smaller household types by age for the Warringah Council area to metropolitan Sydney. It is clear that Warringah has more older small household types than the metropolitan average. However, there are also higher shares of young couples without children which reflect Warringah s ability to attract younger couples, possibly moving into the area to take advantage of its housing opportunities and lifestyle choices available. Therefore, not only does this highlight that Warringah s residential role and function as being impacted on by the process of people ageing in place but possibly even at a stage of regeneration with the gains of young couples without children, many of whom may be children who have grown up in Warringah or neighbouring Local Government Areas and left home to form their own households. More specifically, the comparison of Warringah s household types (to the metro average) shows that there are proportionally more older couple-without-children households (empty nesters) and more older lone person households than the metropolitan average. Share of smaller household types by age 2001 Share Warringah Council area Sydney SD 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% Young Middle aged Older Young Middle aged Older Couples without children Source: Derived from ABS 2001 Census data Household Type Lone person households In terms of net change, there have been increases in all categories of smaller household types over the 1991 to 2001 period with the most significant increases occurring in older lone person households followed by older couple without children households. To a lesser extent, there have also been increases in young and middle age couple without children households. These submarkets reflect significantly different values to the older couple without children households. They have occurred as a result of a higher share of the population either delaying family formation or never forming a traditional family household, whether by choice or circumstance. In general terms, Warringah is at the point in the suburb lifecycle whereby mature family households, emerging empty nesters, empty nesters and old lone person households will continue to increase in numbers. copyright.id (informed decisions) June

10 Net change in smaller household types by age Warringah (A) Net Change 1,200 1, Young Middle aged Older Young Middle aged Older Couples without children Household Type Lone person households Source: Derived from ABS 1991 & 2001 Census data There has also been an increase in young lone persons and couples without children, which indicates Warringah is providing some housing opportunities for young couples. This probably reflects the type of housing that has been built over the last decade, notably a greater range of apartment style housing. The nature of dwelling stock in many parts of Warringah means that there will also be opportunities for established families. As the chart below indicates, despite the ageing of the population, there has actually been an increase in young couples with children, as well as young single parent families. These households have taken up opportunities as a result of vacancies provided by empty-nesters and elderly moving from their homes, often separate houses. Net change in family household types by age Warringah (A) Net Change 1,500 1, ,000 Young Maturing Older Young Maturing Older Couples with children Household Type Single parent families Source: Derived from ABS 1991 & 2001 Census data copyright.id (informed decisions) June

11 This is depicted in the suburb lifecycle diagram below with Warringah s key emerging household types in the darker shaded boxes. Suburb Lifecycle Diagram Young families Young couples Young couple may have children and become young families Young people either couple or remain as lone persons (or in group) Young lone persons and/or Group households Lone person / group households Young families mature and parents may separate/divorce Mature families Single parent families Young people leave home to form new households, leaving behind empty nesters Emerging empty nesters Empty nesters Old lone persons Traditionally, Warringah has provided housing for predominantly family households in the inland areas, while coastal areas have increasingly had a greater share of nonfamily households. It is apparent that Warringah s key emerging household types (which are the smaller older household types depicted in the dark grey boxes in the diagram above) are taking Warringah into a new phase of regeneration. As dwellings become available in inland areas, either through generational change or by households moving out (or both), young and mature families are likely to move in. This presents Warringah with a couple of key housing opportunities that may effectively speed up the regeneration process. 1. By providing alternative housing for the ageing household types (empty nesters and old lone persons), the larger family households in which these household types are predominantly residing in become freed up and are likely to attract family households; 2. By providing housing for young lone persons, young couples and young families in Warringah, this may provide increased opportunities for households in the early phases of their housing career to enter the Warringah housing market There are already many examples of more diverse and affordable housing types emerging, notably around Dee Why, Narrabeen and other centres, as well as a range of housing options for older people, such as retirement villages and apartments. copyright.id (informed decisions) June

12 5. How dwelling stock is changing in Warringah The types of dwellings that are most prevalent in Australian cities typically address family household structures 3 plus bedroom separate dwellings. The most visible changes to the dwelling stock in Australian cities (commonly reported in the media) are related to the so-called apartment boom occurring particularly in the central cities and inner suburbs. Further, housing policy in all Australian cities has recently been calling for the development of higher densities and more appropriate housing to meet the changing housing needs of increasingly smaller average household sizes. However, the impact of higher density residential development across the Sydney metropolitan area may not be as significant as commonly thought. The most significant net gains to the dwelling stock across metropolitan Sydney are in 4-plus bedroom separate dwellings. The analysis in this section of the report uses the latest Census data to identify the dominant and key emerging dwelling types in the Warringah LGA. Dominant dwelling types is based on absolute numbers of the major dwelling types and key emerging is based on change over the past 10 year period 1991 to Dwelling type data are presented as separate dwellings and semi-detached & attached dwellings by number of bedrooms. This analysis identifies how dwelling types are changing based on changing supply factors (opportunities taken up by the development industry), as well as the development industry s response to changing demand in the area. It also identifies, from the supply side, any apparent changes to the residential role and function of Warringah within the metropolitan context. The results are benchmarked to the metropolitan average in order to provide the regional context for Warringah. copyright.id (informed decisions) June

13 Dwelling types The share of dwelling types in Warringah largely reflects a similar pattern to the Sydney metropolitan average, with slightly higher proportions of larger separate dwellings and also higher proportions of smaller, higher density dwellings than the metropolitan average. Overall, almost two-thirds of dwellings are separate houses. This reflects the residential role and function of Warringah as a place that has historically provided opportunities for larger family-type households. The large share of small and medium-sized higher density dwellings reflects the concentration of apartments in coastal areas, notably Dee Why and Queenscliff. There was a significantly smaller share of large semi-detached and attached dwellings in Warringah. These dwellings largely provide accommodation for older people who are in retirement villages or are downsizing into lower maintenance dwellings. They are also important for younger households entering the housing market who can not afford a separate house or who also prefer a low maintenance option. Share of dwelling types, 2001 Share Warringah C ouncil area Sy dney SD 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Small: 0-2 br M edium: 3 br Large: 4+ br Small: 0-1 br M edium: 2 br Large: 3+ br Other Dw elling Separate house Semi-detached & attached* Dwelling Type Source: Derived from ABS 2001 Census data copyright.id (informed decisions) June

14 The single largest net change in dwelling stock for Warringah between 1991 and 2001 was in large separate houses, with an increase of almost 3,000 dwellings. However, there has also been a significant increase in the stock of higher density dwellings (all bedrooms). These trends highlight a trend that is consistent with what happened over the same period for the metropolitan area as a whole. There have been increases in smaller household types in Warringah over the period, while the most significant single net increase in the stock of dwellings for the same period is in the 4-plus bedroom separate dwellings. However, the gains in all higher density dwellings (+3,600 in total) are slightly higher than the gain of just under 3,000 large separate dwellings. This implies that the housing stock in Warringah is already responding to the demographic trends occurring there, namely the growth in smaller household types. Over the same period, there has been a decline in the number of small separate dwellings (2 and 3 bedroom) which is most likely as a result of a combination of extension activity through renovation (whereby people have been adding additional bedroom(s) to their smaller dwellings); and demolition and replacement activity (often resulting in a net gain of medium density dwellings). There is clearly an established trend in Warringah resulting in the increasing diversity of dwelling stock. Net change in dwelling types Warringah (A) Net change 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,000-1,500 Small: 0-2 br Medium: 3 br Large: 4+ br Small: 0-1 br Medium: 2 br Large: 3+ br Other Dwelling Separate house Medium and high density Dwelling Type Source: Derived from ABS 1991 & 2001 Census data copyright.id (informed decisions) June

15 Overall there has been a gain of larger format dwellings in Warringah. This reflects the overall desire and consequent trend of households consuming more space, although there are less people tending to occupy each dwelling. This is also consistent with a broader metropolitan trend and relates to a range of factors including: The desire to have an office at home (as computer and internet use increases); Operating a business and/or working from home; The need for a separate bedroom per child as a standard; The need for a spare room for visitors and children who have left home or grandchildren; The need for a divorced partner to have bedrooms for their children when in custody. No significant motives for older households to move after their children have left home. copyright.id (informed decisions) June

16 6. How age structure is changing in Warringah 6.1 Warringah s Changing Age Structure The changing age structure over the 1991 to 2001 period reveals the extent to which the population is ageing and intra-urban migration is impacting on demand for housing in Warringah. In 2001, Warringah had a significantly older age structure than metropolitan Sydney, meaning that the area is already playing a major role in housing older people. Warringah has a greater share of population than the metropolitan Sydney average in all ages 55 and above. Comparison of age structure between Warringah and metropolitan Sydney, 2001 Share Warringah (A) Metropolitan Sydney 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Age group Source: ABS 2001 Census The net change in Warringah s age structure between 1991 and 2001 shows increases in persons aged (middle-age couples without children households) and persons aged 70+ (older couples without children and lone person households). During this period, therefore, one of Warringah s key housing roles was to provide housing for an increasingly aged population. There was also a significant loss of people in their late teens and early twenties, as children that have grown up in Warringah have left the family home. However, there has been a notable gain in young couple and family ages. This reflects the increase seen in the young couples with children and young single parent families in the previous Section, as well as the growth in the young couples without children and young lone person households. copyright.id (informed decisions) June

17 Net Change in five year age groups, Warringah, Persons 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, ,000-1,500-2,000-2, Age group Source: Derived from ABS 1991 & 2001 Census data copyright.id (informed decisions) June

18 6.2 Warringah s Forecast Age Structure The Transport & Population Data Centre forecasts for Warringah generally assume a continuation of the established ageing process in Warringah..id understands that these are trend-based forecasts and do not take account of the active application of a Centres policy (as proposed by the Metropolitan Strategy for Sydney released by the NSW Government in December 2005) whereby higher density residential development in and around key centres is encouraged. Warringah Forecast Age Structure Persons ,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Age group Source: Transport and Population Data Centre, 2004 copyright.id (informed decisions) June

19 According to TPDC forecasts, the age structure of Warringah is set to age in place. The peak age groups are set to change from years at 2001 to years in The age-specific net change chart below illustrates the significant impact of the ageing-in-place process that is likely to occur in a well established residential municipality such as Warringah. The net increases are primarily in the age groups (emerging and established empty nesters ) and also notably in the 85+ age group. This is likely to occur in the absence of a housing policy that provides the increasing opportunity for family-type households and younger households to enter the market in Warringah. Forecast Net Change in five year age groups, Warringah, Persons 2,000 1,500 1, ,000-1,500-2,000-2, Age group Source: Transport and Population Data Centre, 2004 This outcome may have significant servicing implications for Warringah Council, which may include: A loss of family services (due to a lack of demand); Closure of local schools; Significant demands made on aged-care services. Please note that the outcome of these forecasts may vary from those that will be produced by.id during July-August copyright.id (informed decisions) June

20 7. Who is living in what type of household and dwelling? While there is no comprehensive data derived from primary research of housing preferences, secondary (census) data enables an analysis of housing consumption patterns by household type. This data reveals housing consumption patterns within the context of supply constraints. Unpublished research by Terry Burke (Swinburne 2004) provides the following definitions used by i.d in its housing work. Revealed preferences - are what households actually do by way of behaviour (measured by what they actually consume e.g. what dwelling type do they actually reside in and under what tenure arrangements?). Expressed preferences - are those preferences that are stated by individuals when asked what course of action they would prefer (measured by a survey asking what sort of housing would you like to rent/buy? ). The analysis in this section of the report uses the latest Census data to identify the relationship between key emerging household types in the Warringah LGA and the type of dwellings they are residing in. It explores the relationship between the key emerging household types in Warringah to identify what types of dwellings they are residing in. The revealed preference data derived from the Census are extensive. The key emerging household types explored for Warringah below are chosen on the basis of the key trend evident from the and intercensal periods. This is the significant increases in lone person households and couples without children households. The following section explores four key household types selected on the basis of recent changes to Warringah s demographic structure and expected (forecast) change to the age structure. These are: 1. Young Couples without children: This group have been included due to the net gains observed from the data. This implies that Warringah may be providing an entry point into the housing market for young home buyers/renters which suggest that Warringah is entering a period of regeneration. 2. Older couples without children: These are often referred to as empty nesters and (given the suburb lifecycle stage at which Warringah) is this group is also likely to grow in number. 3. Older lone person households: Warringah has experienced the most significant net growth in middle aged and older young person households recently and this is a trend that is likely to continue in future as the ageing of Warringah s population continues. 4. Young Couple with children: This group have been included due to the net gains observed from the data. This implies that Warringah has experienced significant in-migration of these household types and furthermore, it suggests that Warringah is entering a period of regeneration. copyright.id (informed decisions) June

21 7.1 Young Couple without Children Households Young couples without children are early in their housing career and are prepared to accept high levels of housing stress (a large proportion of their household income being spent on housing) to enable them to enter home ownership. This household type is also prepared to compromise on the format of their dwelling to achieve affordability. They are an important group, particularly for well established areas to attract, as they have a high propensity for having children, therefore providing demand for children s services. They play a key role in diversifying well established areas and maintaining population levels as their average household size is likely to grow. The most prominent types of dwellings that young couples without children are living in include 2 bedroom medium and high density dwellings (mainly renters) and 3 bedroom separate houses. Compared to metropolitan Sydney, young couple without children households in Warringah have a higher propensity to consume 0-2 bedroom medium and higher density dwellings. This probably reflects the stock of dwellings along the coastal strip. Share of young couples without children by dwelling type, Share Warringah Council area Sydney SD 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Small: 0-2 br Medium: 3 br Large: 4+ br Small: 0-1 br Medium: 2 br Large: 3+ br Other dwelling Separate Houses Medium & high density Dwelling type Source: Derived from ABS 2001 Census data copyright.id (informed decisions) June

22 In terms of net change, young couple without children households in Warringah are clearly becoming more attracted to the 2 and 3-plus bedroom higher density dwelling formats. This is a key consideration when developing a housing strategy for Warringah Council as it is likely that attached and semi-detached 3 plus bedroom dwellings provide an important opportunity for more living space for young couples in the Warringah housing market. The period also saw an increase in the young couples without children in three or more bedroom, separate dwellings. These couples have presumably already gained sufficient equity and are able to service a larger mortgage. Some of these couples would be expected to become young couples with children over the next ten years. Net change of young couples without children by dwelling type, Warringah (A) Net change Small: 0-2 br Medium: 3 br Large: 4+ br Small: 0-1 br Medium: 2 br Large: 3+ br Other dw elling Separate H ouses Dwelling Type Medium & high density Source: Derived from ABS 1991 & 2001 Census data copyright.id (informed decisions) June

23 7.2 Older Couples without Children Households While a small proportion of these households are couples who have never had children, the majority could be best described as empty nesters. These household types are moving towards the end of their housing career and are often faced with the decision as to whether to move or not from the family home. The extent to which this is happening is often overstated in the media and there is a paucity of primary research on this group. It is possible that there is a lack of housing opportunity for these households to make the decision to move. Also there are likely to be significant barriers for empty nesters to move. These barriers may include: Financial barriers such as the cost of moving into more appropriate housing forms for empty nesters; Emotional barriers such as the significant emotional attachment to the memories a family home holds for its family particularly when the children have left; Appropriateness of the family dwelling may be underestimated. How are these households using their space? The extra bedrooms may be well used as home office, places for grandchildren to stay and the like. Supply barriers such as the supply of alternative (more convenient housing forms) located within the region where well established family and social networks exist for these households. The data presented in the charts below indicate that some empty nesters in Warringah appear to be making the move to higher density dwelling forms. However, empty nesters continue to reside predominantly in the family home (3 and 4- bedroom separate dwellings). In comparison to metropolitan Sydney, older couples without children in Warringah reflect similar overall propensities to remain in separate houses. In the medium and higher density dwellings, there are higher shares in the 0-2 bedroom dwelling types. Share of older couples without children by dwelling type, Share Warringah Council area Sydney SD 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Small: 0-2 br Medium: 3 br Large: 4+ br Small: 0-1 br Medium: 2 br Large: 3+ br Other dw elling Separate Houses Medium & high density Source: Derived from ABS 2001 Census data Dwelling type copyright.id (informed decisions) June

24 Over the period, older couples without children households appear to have primarily remained in their family dwellings (3 and 4 plus bedroom separate dwellings). There have been only small net gains into medium and higher density dwellings of these households. Some of the gains in large 4-plus bedroom dwellings relate to alterations of 3 bedroom dwellings in the previous census years. Net change of older couples without children by dwelling type, Warringah (A) Net change Small: 0-2 br Medium: 3 br Large: 4+ br Small: 0-1 br Medium: 2 br Large: 3+ br Other dw elling Separate Houses Medium & high density Dwelling Type Source: Derived from ABS 1991 & 2001 Census data copyright.id (informed decisions) June

25 7.3 Older Lone Person Households These are generally households at the end of their housing careers who are often ageing-in-place and are faced with decisions on whether to move or not, given the death of (or divorce from) their partner. Older lone person households in Warringah were primarily located in 0-2 bedroom, medium and high density dwelling formats in This share is significantly higher than metropolitan Sydney as a whole and possibly reflects the high share of retirement villages and smaller apartments in the local government area. Interestingly, the share of older lone person households in separate dwellings is significantly lower in Warringah than compared to Metropolitan Sydney. Share of older lone persons by dwelling type, Share Warringah Council area Sy dney SD 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Small: 0-2 br Medium: 3 br Large: 4+ br Small: 0-1 br Medium: 2 br Large: 3+ br Other dw elling Separate Houses Dwelling type Medium & high density Source: Derived from ABS 2001 Census data copyright.id (informed decisions) June

26 Although older lone person households in Warringah continue to consume higher density dwellings, there have been significant gains in those living in 3 bedroom separate houses and to a lesser extent, 4-plus bedroom dwellings. Most of this relates to the ageing-in-place process whereby a partner in an older couple household dies, with the remaining partner staying in the original dwelling. This socalled preference may also well be influenced by a possible under supply of alternative dwellings available to the older lone person household within the area where the person has established social networks. Net Change Older Lone Person Households by Dwelling Type Warringah (A) Net change Small: 0-2 br Medium: 3 br Large: 4+ br Small: 0-1 br Medium: 2 br Large: 3+ br Other dw elling Separate Houses Medium & high density Dwelling Type Source: Derived from ABS 1991 & 2001 Census data copyright.id (informed decisions) June

27 7.4 Young Couples with Children Households Young couples with children are often found in two different markets: those who are early in their housing career and are prepared to accept high levels of housing stress (a large proportion of their household income being spent on housing; and secondly, those in the second and third home-purchaser market who are upgrading to larger dwelling formats. This household type is an important group, particularly for well established areas to attract, as they spur demand for children s services. They play a key role in diversifying well established areas and maintaining population levels as their average household size is likely to grow. The most prominent types of dwellings that young couples with children are living in include 3 and 4-plus bedroom separate dwellings (mainly purchasers). Compared to metropolitan Sydney, young couple with children households in Warringah have a higher propensity to consume 3 and 4-plus bedroom separate dwellings. This reflects the stock of dwellings in areas such as Allambie Heights, Frenchs Forest, Forestville and Killarney Heights. Share of young couples with children by dwelling type, Share Warringah C ouncil area Sy dney SD 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Small: 0-2 br Medium: 3 br Large: 4+ br Small: 0-1 br Medium: 2 br Large: 3+ br Other dw elling Separate H ouses Medium & high density Dwelling type Source: Derived from ABS 2001 Census data In terms of net change, young couple with children households in Warringah are clearly attracted to 3 and 4-plus bedroom separate dwelling. This is a key consideration when developing a housing strategy for Warringah Council as it is likely that larger separate dwellings provide an important opportunity for more living space for young families in the Warringah housing market. The period also saw a significant increase in the young couples with children in 4-plus bedroom separate dwellings. There are also been some gain of young couples with children living in 2 and 3-plus bedroom higher density formats. It copyright.id (informed decisions) June

28 can be expected that some of these households were once young couples without children living in higher density dwelling formats. Some of these couples would be expected to become mature couples with children over the next ten years. Net Change of young couples with children by dwelling type, Warringah (A) Net change 1,200 1, Small: 0-2 br M edium: 3 br Large: 4+ br Small: 0-1 br M edium: 2 br Large: 3+ br Other dw elling Separate H ouses M edium & high density Dwelling Type copyright.id (informed decisions) June

29 7.5 Some Implications of Housing Consumption Trends in Warringah There is a general objective (often not explicitly stated) amongst policy makers to effectively create a policy framework that attempts to match supply to the apparently changing demand (namely the growth in smaller household types). While there has been significant increase in the supply of 4 plus bedroom separate dwellings in Warringah, changes to the housing stock in Warringah appears to have responded to the growth in smaller households by showing similar rates of gain in the higher density dwelling types (2 and 3-plus dwellings) compared to the metropolitan average. This trend is likely to have been driven by the development of medium density dwelling formats targeted towards an ageing population. Comparison of percentage change in Dwelling Stock Warringah C ouncil area Sy dney SD Share 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% Small: 0-2 br M edium: 3 br Large: 4+ br Small: 0-1 br M edium: 2 br Large: 3+ br Other Dw elling Separate house Dwelling Type Semi-detached & attached* Source: Derived from ABS 1991 & 2001 Census data Nevertheless, Warringah s population is expected to age significantly over the next 20 years, with household sizes continuing to decline with the most significant growth expected to continue to occur in the empty nester and older lone person households. Warringah will continue to be an attractive residential location for family households, as has been its traditional role overall. However, the trend of increasing Warringah s dwelling stock that is apparent over the period will need to continue to sustain the population base and provide housing opportunity. This is not only for people ageing in Warringah but also for younger households to enter the Warringah housing market. copyright.id (informed decisions) June

30 The chart below depicts the age-specific propensity for people to live in attached dwellings (including semi-detached, apartments etc.) and compares Warringah to the Metropolitan Sydney average. It is important to note that overall the age groups with the highest propensity to live in higher density dwellings are young adults, retirement age and elderly and that this trend applies equally to Warringah as it does to the metropolitan area as a whole. Share of each age group in higher density dwellings Warringah and Metropolitan Sydney share of each age group in higher density dwellings 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Warringah Metro Sydney age group Source: Derived from ABS, 2001 Census data The chart also shows that in most age groups, Warringah residents have a lower propensity to live in higher density dwellings, until they reach their 70s, where it is apparent that Warringah residents have a higher propensity to live in higher density dwellings (retirement villages and aged care). Those in the year age groups in Warringah also have a higher propensity to consume higher density dwellings compared to the Metropolitan Sydney, while those in the year age groups have a lower propensity to live in these types of dwellings. The differences in share living in the higher density dwelling format may in part be a supply issue in that Warringah may not have the supply to provide people with choice. There may be more opportunity for Warringah to investigate the options to potentially increase the supply of higher density dwelling alternatives for those in the 35 to 64 year age groups. copyright.id (informed decisions) June

31 8. Migration Patterns in Warringah The migration information below is derived from the 2001 Census and reveals the extent to which Warringah attracts people and households from key source areas and loses people and households to other destinations. The patterns of migration gain and loss in Warringah follow trends experienced in many parts of Sydney. Overseas migration gain is the most significant single source of growth for Warringah. Most net flows are outward from central Sydney towards the fringe (north to south migration), with the largest net gains to Warringah from within Sydney from the Local Government area of Manly. The map suggests that Warringah functions very much within its region, with a large share of new residents from neighbouring municipalities (excluding the gains from overseas). The most significant losses from Warringah were to the immediate north, notably the Central Coast and to Hornsby, while like many areas in Sydney, there were significant losses interstate, notably to Brisbane, the Gold and Sunshine Coasts, as well as Perth. Migration levels are often influenced by the opportunities created by net gains in the dwelling stock. While Warringah gained significant amounts of dwelling stock over the period, the effect of large in-flows of migration from overseas and areas to the south meant that there were still large losses of people from the municipality in empty-nester and retiree age groups (45-69 years). Net migration for Warringah Council Hornsby (A) Gosford (C) Lake Macquarie (C) QLD Wyong (A) Overseas 5,000 + Net moves by SLA Warringah (A) ,000 + Perth SD Dotted line denotes outflow Willoughby (C) North Sydney (A) Mosman (A) Manly (A) Source: ABS 1996 & 2001 Census copyright.id (informed decisions) June

32 The age specific migration chart below identifies (in net terms) who is leaving and arriving to Warringah. Between 1991 and 1996, there were net losses of population from Warringah in many age groups, notably young adults (20-24 year olds) and two other housing market groups that could be best described as up-graders (40-54 year olds); and empty- nesters (55-64 years olds). For the period , the age specific net migration profile is similar in shape, but the housing opportunities provided in Warringah meant that there were some gains particularly in young and mature family age groups (0-14, years). Warringah continued to lose empty nesters during this period, but the numbers were marginally older than , with ages most prominent. Age specific net migration, Warringah (A) No of persons Source: ABS 1991, 1996 & 2001 Census Age group The year olds may form two groups, either young home leavers (students and first home buyers) or those who are still be living at home with their parents (50- odd year olds) who may be leaving as families to effectively upgrade their housing elsewhere. There is some evidence in the age specific migration profiles that there are still opportunities for young and established families in Warringah, whether as a result of some greenfield development or a process of regeneration taking place. Typically Warringah would be attractive for mature family households looking for an area with high amenity (i.e., natural landscape, beaches and environment), while still being able to access the employment of central Sydney and North Sydney. The range of housing stock across the Local Government area provides entry points for young renters and purchasers, with apartments and units (notably Coastal areas), while inland areas have a higher share of detached housing, attracting young and established families, although affordability is a major obstacle. Whatever housing opportunities are provided in Warringah in the future will influence this migration profile. The two key factors that will influence first how many people leave and arrive in Warringah are: 1. the extent to which there are net gains in the dwelling stock; and 2. the housing markets that the new dwelling stock is attracting. copyright.id (informed decisions) June

33 9. Where residential development is occurring in Warringah The map below identifies the distribution of dwelling activity across the Warringah Council area over the period. It appears that development in Warringah has tended to focus in and around activity centre areas, predominantly in the eastern parts around North Narrabeen, Collaroy, Dee Why and Manly Vale. There has however been some activity occurring in the areas north of Frenchs Forest. Distribution of Dwelling Approvals* in Warringah Terrey Hills Narrabeen Collaroy Frenchs Forest Dee Why Dwelling Approvals 50 to to to 20 Less than 10 Manly Vale *Numbers of dwelling approvals are counted on 200 sq m grids Note: The ring areas shown on map above are.id derived 400m buffers around LEP defined activity centre localities and are used for graphical purposes only. Source: Warringah Council, 2006 copyright.id (informed decisions) June

34 There is some concentration of residential development activity (as indicated by dwelling approvals) in the localities where the highest order centres are located in. The table below lists the dwelling approvals by type (of dwelling/s) for each LEP locality. Although approvals in Dee Why Activity Centre accounts for just over 8% of Warringah s total approvals between 1998 and 2005, approvals in all activity centres (denoted in bold) accounts for over 47% of Warringah s total approvals for that period. Between , more than three-quarters (76%) of these were for multi-units (medium density housing) with most being approved after 2001 (52%). Most of this type of development was focused in the localities of Dee Why Activity Centre, Manly Lagoon Suburbs, Collaroy Footslopes, Dee Why Basin and Colloray/Narrabeen. In contrast, approvals for detached dwellings occurred in areas did not have activity centres such as Oxford Heights/Carnarvon Drive and Forest Way Village. copyright.id (informed decisions) June

35 Warringah Council Dwelling Approvals by WLEP 2000 Localities, Locality* (LEP) Total Detached Detached house Multi-Unit house Multi-Unit Pittwater Road Sturdee Parade Fisher Road Oaks Avenue Civic Centre Dee Why Parade Pacific Parade 8 8 Dee Why Activity Centre Dee Why Distribution (%) 0% 13% 0% 87% 100% Manly Lagoon Suburbs Innes Road Middle Harbour Suburbs Dee Why Basin Oxford Heights/Carnarvon Drive Collaroy Footslopes Narrabeen Lake Suburbs Narrabeen Village Collaroy/Narrabeen Dee Why Lagoon Suburbs Forest Way Village Queenscliff Brookvale Valley Curl Curl Delmar Parade Long Reef Narrabeen Lakeside Perentie and Dawes Roads Red Hill Mooramba West Oxford Falls Valley Freshwater Beach Dee Why Park Frenchs Forest East Dee Why North Aquatic Drive Manly Vale Centre Wingala Hill Collaroy Plateau Collaroy Village Forestville Village Terrey Hills Village Glen Street Village Harbord Village 9 9 Pittwater Road North 8 8 The Strand 8 8 Riverview Parade Cottage Point Myoora Road 1 1 Warringah Council Area Total 501 1, ,319 4,454 Warringah Distribution (%) 11% 24% 13% 52% 100% *Only LEP localities with approvals between listed Note: LEP locality in bold includes a centre/village as defined by Warringah Council Source: Sydney Water via Warringah Council 2006; data by financial year copyright.id (informed decisions) June

36 While development activity shows some pattern of dispersion, it is clear that most development activity is focused adjacent or within the activity centres of Warringah. This established trend augers well for the direction of Warringah housing policy which is attempting to focus higher density residential development in and around the centres and along major transport corridors. Unambiguously allocating specific areas for residential development will not only protect the highly valued residential areas but also provide more opportunity and certainty for the development industry. The opportunities to achieve a less dispersed residential development pattern are explored in the following sections of this report. copyright.id (informed decisions) June

37 10. Residential Development Opportunity Analysis The following categories of supply are assessed to provide an estimate of residential development opportunity for Warringah Council: Opportunity in the designated centres; Opportunity for demolition and replacement activity across the municipality based on a lot size analysis; Opportunity for development on major (re)development sites. Another possibility in well established municipalities like Warringah is to assess the opportunity for residential development through the turnover of land from industrial and commercial uses. However this has not been undertaken for Warringah as: The industrial and commercial land is being actively protected to provide local employment opportunities; In any case, the opportunity provided by these parcels is not significant enough given only a minimal supply of land of this nature in the municipality Opportunity for Residential Development in the Designated Activity Centres In the post 1996 period, significant residential redevelopment activity has been taking place across established areas of metropolitan cities across Australia. There are a number of factors that impact on both the supply and demand side of residential development. These trends are manifested in the value of land which in turn drives dwelling development densities, new dwelling formats and structures and new marketing techniques that effectively create housing markets. The so-called apartment boom is largely a supply driven phenomenon that has been met with unexpected levels of demand. The method for assessing residential development opportunities in the 12 nominated centres in the Warringah Council area applies a broad-brushed consideration of local constraints and overall regional market demand and trends, to provide supply scenario that is a strategic planner s starting point from which to build a residential development strategy in response to the Metropolitan Strategy. This approach provides first-cut quantification of residential development opportunity for each of the 12 nominated activity centres within the Warringah Council area to accommodate additional dwellings. It is based on applying a typology to each centre and identifying opportunities and constraints to residential development and applying densities of development based on a set of land development and residential density assumptions driven by the centre typology). copyright.id (informed decisions) June

38 10.2 Centre Residential Development Opportunity Assessment - Method The method used to assess land development potential in and around centres is based on the following method: 1. Creating a typology for each centre based on its role and function with regard to the following: I. Access to public transport This is indicative of the importance and value of the centre as a destination. The more of a destination a centre, the higher the demand for floor space (both residential and commercial) there and the higher the value of land. In general, higher land values attract higher density activity. II. Level of services and retailing This is indicative of the function of a centre. The higher level of services and retail in a centre, the higher the demand for space in that centre and the higher the potential for higher density development exists. III. Access to major institutions There are significant commercial and residential spin-offs from any major institutions (such as tertiary education or health facilities) as these types of centres are major destinations for employment and visitation. Tertiary institutions and major health facilities are significant destinations for people (bringing demand for transport and housing) and provide opportunity for commerce both in terms of the economic synergies based on commercialising research as well as the commerce attracted to meet the needs of large numbers of people attracted to tertiary and health institutions on a daily basis. IV. Urban Integration This is an assessment of the extent to which a centre is integrated into the surrounding residential areas. How easy is it to walk to? How easily can it be made to walk to? How appropriate is the centre for residential development? How likely is it to attract residential development? How well linked is the centre to the surrounding residential areas? Each of the allocated centres is given a score for each feature. The following table outlines the score given to each centre and the associated development assumptions, largely driven by the role and function of each centre. 2. Quantifying the size of centres, based on two factors: I. the extent of area within the centre based on zoning (i.e., commercial); and II. a development area of 400 metres from the periphery of the in-centre zone (considered reasonable walking distance). Land supply is discounted on the basis of factors such as roads, built form, lot sizes, heritage, significant access barriers and sites pertaining to recently approved development proposals and Metropolitan Development Program (MDP). Also discounted is land with dwelling construction from 1998 onwards as it is assumed that these are unlikely to be redeveloped within the next twenty years. 3. Looking at areas around Metropolitan Sydney with higher dwelling densities of 25, 50, 75 and 100 dwellings per hectare and using them as the basis for density models or density assumptions in each of the centres. Four examples have been chosen and are illustrated on the following pages in photos of the streetscape and aerials of the neighbourhood based on the Census Collector District (CCD) in copyright.id (informed decisions) June

39 which the built form is located. The densities have been calculated on the basis of the CCD area and density (each CCD covers approximately 200 dwellings). 4. Making conservative assumptions about what share of a centre and its surrounding catchment has been developed based on the typologies. This is based simply on assuming 7.5% of land is developed for each point allocated to the centre in the typology assessment (task 1 outlined above). This has been subsequently reviewed and changed based on a market assessment. That is, the scores have been reviewed on the basis of the likely attractiveness of each centre to the residential development market. 5. Applying a mix of different density models (25, 50, 75 and 100 dwellings per hectare) to the share of the centre selected. Adjustments were then made to account for existing dwelling stock in centre catchments based on the current dwelling density so that the figures include existing dwellings as well as net additions in each centre at the end of the period. (Again, this was subsequently reviewed and changed based on a market assessment.) Dwelling Density Assumptions The dwelling density assumptions are based on actual selected desirable locations and desirable urban forms. (For example, selected desirable locations are those that have good quality amenity and access to services and open space, therefore commanding median house prices around the middle to upper middle level by metropolitan standards). Presenting pictures of locations of a mix of higher density dwelling densities provides the context for the urban form associated with the dwelling densities being assumed. Calculations of dwelling densities based on selecting CCDs which have achieved these densities have been made to provide examples. Streetscape photographs of these CCDs are also presented as well as an aerial view of the CCD to provide an alternative view. Estimated lot size mix map is also presented to give a perspective of the lot size and number of dwellings on each lot that have achieved the associated density. copyright.id (informed decisions) June

40 High Density 100 dwellings per hectare Hampden Avenue, Cremorne Rangers Rd Hampden Ave Aerial image from Google Earth, 2006 copyright.id (informed decisions) June

41 Medium/High Density 75 dwellings per hectare Premier Street, Neutral Bay Cnr Montpellier St & Premier St Lindsay St Ben Boyd Rd Aerial image from Google Earth, 2006 copyright.id (informed decisions) June

42 Medium Density 50 dwellings per Hectare Kenneth Road & Roseberry Street, Manly Vale Condamine St Raglan St Koorala St Kenneth Rd Prince Albert St Quirk St Queen St Aerial image from Google Earth, 2006 copyright.id (informed decisions) June

43 Medium/Low Density 25 dwellings per Hectare Prince Albert St, Mosman Raglan St Prince Albert St Queen St Aerial image from Google Earth, 2006 copyright.id (informed decisions) June