Transition towards a sustainable energy system: from fuels to materials

Transcription

1 Transition towards a sustainable energy system: from fuels to materials Wim C. Sinke ECN Solar Energy, Utrecht University & European Photovoltaic Technology Platform

2 Contents the transition challenge quantified ingredients for the solution from fuels to materials: from the frying pan into the fire? opportunities and challenges for polymers 2 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009 Background photo:

3 The challenge quantified 20 ~ 30% emission reduction by KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009

4 The challenge quantified 80%+ emission reduction by KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009

5 The challenge quantified or: 100% of energy-related emissions 5 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009

6 The challenge quantified 10 years left to reverse historic trends 6 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009

7 The challenge quantified 2.5 kw primary energy 24/7 p.p. 7 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009

8 The challenge quantified 6 kw p.p. in NL 8 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009

9 The challenge quantified 10 kw p.p. in USA 9 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009

10 Some views on the future of our energy supply 10 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009

11 World CO 2 emissions 11 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009

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13 13 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009

14 World energy consumption 14 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009

15 World energy consumption 15 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009

16 World energy consumption 16 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009

17 EU Strategic Energy Technology (SET) Plan Technology development in support of 2020 (and 2050) targets Large-scale, industry-led initiatives per technoloy area: e.g. Solar Europe Industry Initiative (PV + CSP) vision: 12% + 3% = 15% contribution to EU electricity by 2020 To be financed by industry, member states and EC 17 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009

18 18 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009

19 Cumulative PV installations KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009

20 Total global 2008 investments in renewables bigger than in conventional power generation 20 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009

21 1979 c-si 22% price decrease for every doubling of cumulative production 2007 Thin Film 2009 polysilicon shortage 2009 Courtesy: EPIA, October KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009

22 Generation cost solar electricity to reach grid parity soon 22 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009

23 Solar Europe Industry Initiative / SET for 2020 PV is not only a long-term option PV can contribute to 2020 targets potential contribution to EU electricity consumption in 2020: baseline scenario (4%) accelerated scenario (6%) paradigm shift scenario (12%) M. M. Lippert,, SAFT 23 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009

24 24 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009 Ken Zweibel, James Mason and Vasilis Fthenakis

25 Solar energy in the energy transition EJ/a geothermal other renewables solar thermal (heat only) solar power (photovoltaics (PV) & solar thermal generation (CSP) wind energy biomass (advanced) biomass (traditional) hydroelectricity nuclear power gas coal oil the challenge: EJ GWp million km 2 PV modules year PV & CSP 2100 Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2003, (example scenario) 25 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009

26 From fuels to materials: materials consumption for VLSPV (TW scale) 100,000 km 2 PV systems (minimum for any impact): 0.1 ~ 10 µm conversion layers: 10 4 ~ 10 6 m 3 (>>10 4 tons) 1 ~ 10 µm conductive layers: 10 5 ~ 10 6 m 3 (concentrators: ~ ; add optics & trackers) 0.3 ~ 3 mm encapsulation layers: m 3 + cabling (Cu, Al?) + support structures (concrete, Fe, wood?) 26 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009

27 Polymers & energy: why polymers? functionality sustainability cost 27 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009

28 Polymers & energy (examples) functionality opto-electronic / optical solar cells & solid state lighting (semiconductors) concentrators (light management) electrochemical fuel cells & H 2 production (membranes) blue energy (membranes) physical solar energy (encapsulation) blue energy (membranes) mechanical wind energy (composites for blades) solar energy (framing, support structures) 28 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009

29 Polymers & energy sustainability low energy input recyclability 29 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009

30 Polymers & energy cost not per kg, but per unit of service delivered 30 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009

31 Polymers & energy: challenges high performance at low cost long lifetime / small degradation of functionality alternatives for fossil-fuel-based feedstock recyclability of composites and mixed materials Courtesy Canon 31 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009

32 In conclusion Polymers are indispensible for the energy transition Major challenges remain to be addressed Opportunities for science, technology and application are huge 32 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009

33 Greenpeace 33 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009