3 rd Commemoration Seminar of Gorkha Earthquake. Session 4

Transcription

1 3 rd Commemoration Seminar of Gorkha Earthquake Session 4 Strengthening Disaster Risk Governance through implementation of Kathmandu Valley Resilience Plan (KVRP) and Investment for Disaster Risk Reduction Kedar NEUPANE Joint Secretary, MoHA 26 th April 2018

2 Contents Basic Concept of Sendai Framework for DRR Understanding Disaster Risk Strengthening Disaster Risk Governance Investment for Disaster Risk Reduction Towards implementation of DRR Measures 2

3 Sendai Framework for DRR 7 Global Targets (a) Reduce mortality (e) Increase number of countries with national & local DRR strategies 4 Priorities for Action Priority 1 Understanding disaster risk (b) Reduce affected people Priority 2 Strengthening disaster risk governance (f) Enhance International Cooperation (c) Reduce economic loss Priority 3 Investment for DRR (d) Reduce damage to critical infrastructure (g) Enhance Access to the Disaster Information Priority 4 Enhancing disaster preparedness and Build Back Better 3

4 Understanding Disaster Risk 4

5 Seismic Potential in Nepal Seismic Gap 2015 Gorkha EQ Kathmandu Still much Possibility of Big Earthquake 5

6 Risk Assessment in Kathmandu Valley Scenario Earthquake and Estimated Shaking level Scenario Earthquake Shaking in KV 2 times 3 times Other Facilities Critical Facilities and Infrastructures 6

7 Safe and Resilience by Type of Facilities To keep functions at the time of disaster Safe Severe shaking Critical Infrastructure (School, hospital, government building, bridge, etc.) Resilience Other facilities (Residential, Commercial residential mixed buildings) Moderate shaking level 7

8 Result of Risk Assessment 30.6 % of total buildings! 26.7 % of total Bridges To maintain urban function at the event of disaster, important to 28.9 secure % of total safety of critical facilities and school buildings! infrastructures What should be done to reduce estimated damages? Human Casualty 0.3% Death 3.32 % Injured % Evacuee! Economic Loss NPR765,675 Mil 36% of National GDP 8

9 Strengthening Disaster Risk Governance Kathmandu Valley Resilience Plan (KVRP) Local Disaster Risk Reduction Plan (LDRRP) 9

10 Strengthening Disaster Risk Governance ~Relationship with KVRP and LDRRP~ National DRR Plan KVRP LDRRP Provence, District, Municipality For Residents 10

11 Kathmandu Valley Resilience Plan (KVRP) ~Objectives of the KVRP~ Comprehensive Policy Framework Measures to Avoid Worst Case Scenario Concept of Build Back Better (BBB) Overall Guideline for Development The time frame: 20 years 11

12 Kathmandu Valley Resilience Plan (KVRP) ~Road Map~ Key Milestone 2020 (Short) Strategy and Planning 2025 (Medium) Implementation mainly for critical infrastructures 2030 (Long) Revision of Plans 12

13 Local Disaster Risk Reduction Plan (LDRRP) ~Formulation Flow of LDRRP~ 1Risk Identification 2Setting DRR Target and Measures 3 Clarify Roles and Responsibilities between National and Local government 4Priority Measures for DRR 13

14 Local Disaster Risk Reduction Plan (LDRRP) ~1Risk Identification~ Example: Lalitpur MC Building Damage (Heavy) Risk Map (Flood and Fire) 1 Risk Assessment and Identification (Understanding Risk) Flood and Fire Landslide 14

15 Local Disaster Risk Reduction Plan (LDRRP) ~4Priority Measures for DRR~ Example: Lalitpur MC 4 Plan and Prioritize Actions for DRR, Budgeting, and Implement 15

16 Local Disaster Risk Reduction Plan (LDRRP) DRR Activities 16

17 Investment for DRR National Level Efforts Improve Seismic Resistance of School Buildings Local Level Efforts Building Permit and Promotion to improve Seismic Resistance of Residential Houses Designation and Development of Open Spaces for Evacuation 17

18 Investment for DRR (National Level Efforts) ~School Building Strengthening~ Moderate:810 (14.1%) Heavy: 1,654 (28.9%) Total: 2,464 (43.0%) Very High! Reason necessary to take action Investment for Retrofitting and Re-building is Necessary to Mitigate Damages Note: Total No. of School Buildings: 5,731 (2,115 schools) 18

19 Rebuild Vulnerable School Bldgs to Reduce Damage Case of Rebuilding (Adobe, Brick Masonry with mud mortar) Structure Type No. of building Current situation No. of heavy damage No. of death Adobe BM with mud mortar, > 20 yr BM with mud mortar, < 20 yr Rebuild Vulnerable building No. of building No. of heavy damage Rebuild to brick masonry with cement mortar No. of death BM with cement mortar Rebuild Total (51%) Construction cost: 12,868 mil. NPR (1.23% of National Budget) -320 (54%) 19

20 Progress of School Building Strengthening in Japan Progress of Retrofitting of Public School Buildings More than 20 Years to achieve in Japan Source: MEXT,

21 Investment for DRR (Local Level Efforts) Enforcement of Building Permit System Not possible to implement Rough Estimation of costs for Seismic only Retrofitting with local of Buildings Government Building (2016) (Total: 52,821) Strengthening of Residential Buildings Building damage & Economic Loss (Reconstruction cost) Economic loss (mil. NPR) Building damage Heavy damage 9,603(18.2%) 57,355 Moderate damage 6,277(11.9%) Slight damage 9,322(17.6%) 20% (Rough estimate for Retrofitting) 10.5 times Annual Budget of Lalitpur Metropolitan City = (Actual Income 2072/2073 ( )) Example: Lalitpur MC = 11,471 (mil. NPR) 1,085 (mil. NPR) 21

22 Investment for DRR (Local Level Efforts) Evacuation and Development of Open Space Designation and Development of Open Spaces as Evacuation Place and DRR bases Local Government can manage Example: Lalitpur MC 22

23 Challenges for Investment for DRR How to implement Risk Assessment How to speed up formulation of LDRRP How to secure budget for DRR How to coordinate related Ministries How to prioritize necessary DRR Projects and implemented 23

24 Towards Implementation of DRR Measures 24

25 Implementation of DRR Measures ~New Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act~ Natural Calamity Relief Act, Response oriented to DRR Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act, 2017 Response Oriented Comprehensive and DRR Oriented National Level National Council for DRRM Chaired by Prime Minister Executive Committee Chaired by Minister of MoHA Experts Committee 5 members with various fields of expertise National DRRM Authority under MoHA Local Level With coordination of NCDRRM and EC, NDRRMA expected to coordinate Line Ministries to speed up implementation of DRR Measures Province Disaster Management Committee Chaired by Chief Ministers District Disaster Management Committee Chaired by Chief District Officer Local (Municipality and Similar) Disaster Management Committee Chaired by Mayor/Chairperson 25

26 Issues on Implementation of KVRP and LDRRP National Council for DRRM (Prime Minister) Clarification of Roles/Responsibility, Executive Committee and Demarcation of Works (Minister between of National MoHA) and Local Gov. Formulation National of Operation DRRM Plan Authority by each Line Ministries and MoHA (Chief Executive) will coordinate Formulation of Plans for each Measures based on Operation Plan (E.g. Seismic Performance Improvement Line Plan of Schools Line by MoEdu, Line and Bridge Line by MoPIT Ministries Ministries Ministries Ministries Budgeting for Implementation Local Gov. Coordination among Ministries Local Gov. Local Gov. Local Gov. Local Gov. Local Gov. 26

27 Implementation of DRR Measures Nepal s Efforts to be disseminated to Asia and World In Mongolia July 3-6, 2018 Tremendous efforts have been made by the Government of Nepal in cooperation of JICA and other partners and it is the time to disseminate efforts made to other Asian Countries and then to the World 27

28 Research Institutes/Unive rsities Engineers, Consultants DCC Government National Government Provincial Governments Local Governments Security Agencies Fire Brigades Hospitals, Health Facilities Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Donor Agencies is Lifeline NGOs/INGOs Agencies/Comp EVERYONE S BUSINESS anies Schools Teachers, Students Citizen Societies Private Sectors Citizens /Communities Volunteers Business Entrepreneurs Media 28

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30 Reference 30

31 Estimated Total Damage Amount Each Municipality (Unit: Million NPR) District Municipality CNS-1 CNS-2 CNS-3 WN Bhaktapur 11,570 22,392 31,529 4,536 Changunarayan 11,128 24,543 37,062 3,726 BHAKTAPUR Madhyapur Thimi 11,378 23,877 34,396 3,426 Suryabinayak 15,769 32,751 47,208 4,260 Total (BHAKTAPUR) 49, , ,195 15,947 Budhanilkantha 7,490 21,198 36,607 4,279 Chandragiri 25,664 48,190 64,429 8,275 Dakshinkali 6,016 11,976 16,947 1,583 Gokarneshwar 7,981 20,586 34,319 4,117 Kageshwori Manohara 6,045 15,452 25,248 2,622 KATHMANDU Kathmandu Metropolitan City 118, , ,694 49,390 Kirtipur 18,771 33,123 42,936 5,833 Nagarjuna 14,650 31,653 46,616 5,959 Shankharapur 1,441 3,931 7, Tarkeshwar 6,875 17,998 30,095 4,521 Tokha 5,911 15,983 27,094 3,396 Total(KATHMANDU) 218, , ,075 90,914 Bardeu Rural Municipality , Bagmati Rural Municipality Godawari 27,257 51,396 69,725 6,227 LALITPUR Lalitpur Metropolitan City 57, , ,934 15,861 Mahalaxmi 16,670 32,493 45,053 3,837 Konjyosom Rural Municipality , Total (Lalitpur) 102, , ,083 26,138 Grand Total 371, ,534 1,098, ,999 31

32 Estimated Damage Amount by Facility Each Critical Facilities (School, Hospital, Government, Historical Buildings) (Unit: Million NPR) Scenario ground motion School Health Facility Government Building Historical Architecture WN 20,462 22,534 2,444 1,321 CNS-1 51,231 68,588 8,669 1,925 CNS-2 98, ,683 16,514 2,267 CNS-3 134, ,782 22,708 2,377 32

33 Estimated Damage Amount by Facility Each Critical Infrastructures (road, bridge, sewage, power distribution and mobile BTS (Unit: Million NPR) Scenario ground motion WN CNS-1 CNS-2 CNS-3 Road Bridge Water Sewage Power Mobile BTS Total % 63.9% 6.1% 12.9% 3.2% 13.9% 100.0% , % 47.2% 3.7% 7.1% 2.9% 14.3% 100.0% 1,620 1, , % 32.8% 3.1% 4.8% 3.1% 17.1% 100.0% 2,878 1, ,142 6, % 28.9% 2.9% 4.4% 3.0% 17.3% 100.0% 33

34 Estimated Damage Amount by Facility Building and Infrastructure Scenario ground motion WN CNS-1 CNS-2 CNS-3 (Unit: Million NPR) Building Infrastructure Total 132, , % 0.6% 100.0% 371,003 1, , % 0.5% 100.0% 761,531 4, , % 0.5% 100.0% 1,098,353 6,612 1,104, % 0.4% 100.0% 34

35 Estimated Human Causality Death, Injured, and Evacuee Human Casualty Death Injured Evacuee Scenario Ground Motion Earthquake Occurrence Scene Weekend (18:00) Weekday (12:00) Night Number Ratio Number Ratio Number Ratio WN 2, % 2, % 3, % CNS-1 6, % 8, % 9, % CNS-2 15, % 19, % 22, % CNS-3 25, % 31, % 35, % WN 8, % 10, % 11, % CNS-1 25, % 32, % 35, % CNS-2 60, % 78, % 86, % CNS-3 97, % 125, % 139, % WN 279, % 285, % 279, % CNS-1 645, % 652, % 642, % CNS-2 1,202, % 1,206, % 1,196, % CNS-3 1,624, % 1,619, % 1,613, % 35