Sichuan Earthquake Disaster: Lessons for Oregon s s Schools

Transcription

1 Sichuan Earthquake Disaster: Lessons for Oregon s s Schools 5/12/08 Magnitude 7.9 quake ~10,000 student fatalities 7,000 School Rooms destroyed Juyuan Middle School ODE Sept 3, 2008 Yumei Wang, PE Oregon Dept of Geology & Mineral Industries Art from WW, 6/6/08 (DOGAMI) Source: Kit Miyamoto, Investigator IMG_5923.JPG IMG_6573.JPG Juyuan Middle School external view Xing Fu Primary School Han Wang Primary School 1

2 IMG_6213.JPG Mianzhu School IMG_6215.JPG Mianzhu Experimental School external view Yuan Wentin( 袁文婷 ), 26, first grade teacher She saved many students but then building collapsed on her (photo on right) Duck, Cover & Hold does not work if building collapses Mianzhu Experimental School interior view IMG_6216.JPG column Not just China s s schools Oregon Schools require better safety! 1988 Armenia >1,000 students dead 2003 Algeria 130 schools 2005 Pakistan 8,000 schools 17k students dead 20k students injured 1964 Alaska M9.2 quake School pulled apart by landslide 2

3 Long Beach, Calif Magnitude schools collapsed. 120 damaged. Is there a Problem? Yes, Largely Unprepared - Late Knowledge of earthquake hazards - Insufficient building codes (up until 1993) - Many vulnerable pre-1993 buildings - 1,000 school buildings with high-very high risk of collapse in major earthquake CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE Late 1980s deemed as active fault ~20 EQs 10,000 yrs Jan 26, 1700 ~M 9 Next one: Inevitable Knowledge: 1988 vs 2004 faults Oregon s crustal faults Portland Hills Fault Noson et al.,

4 BUILDING CODES (UBC Map) (10% PE in 50 yrs) (Algermissen & Perkins) %g Zone Oregon Earthquake Risk Assessment Cascadia Scenario (1998) Magnitude Long duration of shaking Long period motions Strong shaking valley Coastal Tsunami >>5k fatalities (OR) >>$30 B buildings (OR) 1,000 school buildings at high risk (O ) 02) What s s a solution? - More public awareness & demand ($$ & competing priorities) - Earthquake safety laws OEM grant program coming soon! State s s Seismic Safety History 2001 ORS requires life safety in schools by Ballot Measure 15 amended Constitutional Article XI-M Allows for general obligation bonds to fix schools Bills (2007 dogami report) 2009 OEM grant program ( Courtney( Courtney ) 2005 Senate Bills 2, 3, 4 and 5 (Sen. Peter Courtney) SB 2 (2005): STATEWIDE SEISMIC NEEDS ASSESSMENT July 2005-June DOGAMI report (O-07-02) Statewide Seismic Needs Assessment Schools & Emergency Facilities O ,109 sites with 3,349 buildings SB 3 (2005): SEISMIC REHABILITATION GRANT PROGRAMS July Office of Emergency Management Est. start 2009 ~ $1 Billion ~$1 Billion SB 4 (2005): SEISMIC REHABILITATION Article XI-M Bonds Public Education Buildings July 2007 Jan 2032 State Treasurer/DAS Y.Wang, NOTE:, 9/3/08 SB4 INCLUDES UNIVERSITY SYSTEM BUILDINGS SB 5 (2005): SEISMIC REHABILITATION Article XI-N Bonds Emergency Services Buildings July 2007 Jan 2022 State Treasurer/DAS 4

5 170 Districts 1101 schools 2185 buildings 273 Very High 745 High 501 Moderate 666 Low 94 URMs surveyed (1933 outlawed in CA) O RESULTS 1,198 School buildings pre-1950: Locations & Types Rapid Visual Screening (RVS) FEMA 154 Method Rapid Visual Screening (RVS) Developed for a broad audience Creates building inventory Purpose is to identify: Older buildings Buildings on poor soils Y.Wang, Buildings, 9/3/08 with RVS FEMA 154-What it is not: RVS are preliminary risk assessment Medical Analogy: Judging one s own health based upon general factors like family history Are Not Engineering Studies (as ASCE 31) Chemical analyses & physical examination by qualified professional al Does Not Involve Invasive Tests (as does FEMA 356) Exploratory surgery performed by qualified and experienced surgeon on SEISMIC RISK METHOD (FEMA( 154) Five Key Factors determine Collapse Potential 1. Seismicity Zone (USGS Ground Motion) 2. Building Structural Type (15 options) 3. Building Irregularities (Plan & Vertical) 4. Original Construction Date (vs. Codes) 5. Soil Type (A to F; amplify motion to 10x) Exploration of rebar in concrete column Hospital, Ontario Vertical Irregularity Plan Irregularity Hospital, Ontario Setbacks Hillside L-Shaped T-Shaped U-Shaped Short Column Soft Story Large Opening Weak Weak Link Link Between Between Larger Building Plan Plan Areas Areas EOC, Hood River 5

6 BUILDING CODE SOILS SCORING for Rapid Visual Screening of Buildings for Potential Seismic Hazards Amplification of shaking Example of Calculating a FEMA 154 RVS Score: A B D C E F Highway 880, Oakland CA 1989 Liquefaction Seismicity Zone: High Precode: 1941 Primary Choice Secondary Tertiary Wood (<5,000 sq ft) Conrete (Shear Wall) Reinforced Masonry Building Type W2 C2 RM1 Year Constructed Basic Score Pre-code Modifier Plan Irregularity Modifier (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) Vertical Irregularity Modifier (2.0) (1.0) (1.0) Post-Benchmark Year for Code Post-benchmark Modifier Soil Type E Modifier (0.8) (0.8) (0.4) Final RVS Score Lowest Score Selected Oregon Structural Type Frequencies: Basic RVS Scores Assume a Rock Foundation; Soils C, D and E amplify ground motion (lowers RVS score) Government Hill School, AK 1964 W1 W2 S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 C1 C2 C3 PC1 PC2 RM1 RM2 URM K12 Schools Community College Fire & Police Numbers of Buildings From -1.5 to -1 From -0.9 to -0.5 RESULTS: RVS Scores For K12 Schools From to 0 From 0.1 to 0.5 From 0.6 to 1.0 From 1.1 to 1.5 From 1.6 to 2.0 From 2.1 to 2.5 From 2.6 to 3.0 From 3.1 to 3.5 FEMA 154 (RVS) Score Ranges Probability of Collapse From 3.6 to 4.0 W1 W2 S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 C1 C2 C3 PC1 PC2 RM1 RM2 URM 100% 10% 1% 0.1% 0.01% 0.001% Higher From 4.1 to 4.5 From 4.6 to 5.0 Lower From 5.1 to 5.5 From 5.6 to 6.0 From 6.1 to 6.8 School District Relative Fiscal Need 2 Methods Absence of Need: Method 1: Property Tax/student Use Oregon Dept of Rev Report Property Tax Imposed Compare with Enrollment High Value/student = Low Fiscal Need School District property Tax Imposed Per Enrolled Student $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $- Largest 43 School Districts Only (77% of Enrolled in State) Lake Oswego West Linn Sherwood Tigard-Tualatin Beaverton Newberg Bend-LaPine Eugene Portland Lincoln County Hillsboro Redmond Corvallis North Clackamas Oregon City Hood R Bethel St Helens Grants Pass McMinnville Coos Bay Gresham-Barlow Medford Reynolds Silver Falls Pendleton Salem Keizer Springfield Hermiston Klamath County David Douglas Klamath Falls City Woodburn 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% % Enrolled Students Living in Poverty 2 Methods Presence of Need: Method 2: % Students in Poverty Use US Census SAIPE # Age 5-17 in Poverty Compare with total Age 5-17 High % Poverty = High Fiscal Need Or Ave: $2,643 Or Ave: 14.2% Range: $479-$8,622 Range: % Correlation = -62% (% in Poverty versus Prop Tax/student) Also: Compiled statistics on District School Bonding during ; & compared to enrollment Buildings with Highest Risk (often not consistent w/rvs score) URMs: unreinforced masonry Unreinforced masonry (URM) ~100 buildings Soft story Tilt up Tsunami ~ 50 buildings 6

7 Washington Elementary School OSD and OSB: Soft-Story Story County: Columbia Location: Vernonia,, OR Date Constructed: 1930 Building Type: URM Final RVS Score: and 2007 flood damage from storms OSD Gym: Tilt up (poor design) Tsunami Hazards Example: OSU Hatfield Tilt Up Tsunami hazards at Cannon Beach School Bridge Destroyed in 1964 Tsunami Oregon University System Seismic upgrades using FEMA grants 2005 Institutionalized program on seismic safety Elementary school High Tsunami Risk 100% Moderate Tsunami Risk 50% City Hall Fire Station Low Tsunami Risk 0% 7

8 E-RVS Enhanced Rapid Visual Screening method Western Oregon University RVS method Questions? E-RVS method ODE recent actions OSB & OSD seismic safety study Increase Awareness Media (e.g., Newshour with Jim Lehrer) Quake Safe webpage (8/08) Presentations (forthcoming) Fact sheets, etc (optional) Risk Management: E-RVS method ODE next steps? Prioritize risk (e.g., WOU) Promote life safety law Eliminate mass casualties by meeting collapse prevention w/ OEM grants by 2014? The question is why, again and again, even in developed nations, with a wealth of engineering expertise, schools would collapse in earthquakes.... Every, that is EVERY school should be inspected and where necessary reinforced. This is so basic to risk mitigation in a seismically active area, it seems foolish to have to write it down. (Ben Wisner) 8