Electricity Cost Management

Transcription

1 Electricity Cost Management T I R Launceston May 2017 Mark Searle B.Eng, M.Eng, Dip Fin Serv., MIE Aust. CPEng Principal Consultant Key Energy & Resources marks@thekeygroup.com.au

2 Disclaimer Key Energy & Resources holds an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL ) Any advice contained herein is general in nature and specific advice should be sought before acting on anything contained herein. 2

3 Key Energy & Resources Specialist Energy Management Consultancy Energy Market Advice Gas and Electricity Negotiate Supply contracts Large users $5B + Energy Planning and Cost Control Large client base across Australia Government, semi-government, private sector 3

4 The good times are over. $/MWh $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 T I R Retail Rates VWA 16/17 17/18 18/19 Based on current market data Setting aside further government intervention 4

5 TIR Electricity Cost $/MWh $250 Delivered Cost - VWA $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 16/17 17/18 18/19 Projection Retail NUoS MRET Market & Metering 5

6 What has gone wrong? Nothing.. Market is working as it should Private generators and gas producers exist to make a profit Generators are benefitting from the market Hazelwood (Vic) closed Alinta s Northern (SA) closed More closures planned And the gas market has gone troppo 6

7 Gross Pool The NEM is a gross pool All electricity is traded via the pool at the price of the marginal generator Unsymmetrical Profits increase when supply is constrained 7

8 Pool Range Min = -$1,000/MWh Max = VOLL/MPC = $14,000/MWh Administered Price Cap of $300/MWh Triggered when cumulative RRP for previous 336 trading intervals (7 days) > $210,100 8

9 Pool Prices $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 9 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Weekly RRP ($/MWh, VWA) Key Energy & Resources KE&R (03) NSW QLD SA VIC TAS

10 WEPI WEPI Trend - 30 Day Moving Average $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 KE&R Key Energy &Resources (03) NSW VIC QLD SA 10

11 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 EFI $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 KE&R EFI - Elec. Futures Index ($/MWh) Key Energy & Resources (03) NSW QLD SA VIC 11

12 T I R Contract Plain Vanilla Flexible / favourable terms Enter market early

13 What to expect? High prices Comparable commercial terms Two retailers Price path 4 years FM / VOLL Protection 13

14 Cost Saving Beyond the contract Housekeeping Lighting PV Solar Power Factor More detailed energy analysis HVAC Refrigeration Tasmanian Energy Efficiency Loan Scheme (TEELS) 14

15 Housekeeping Doors closed Fridge seals Turn off appliances when not in use HVAC set point Hot water 15

16 Lighting LED s very successful Low energy cost Low maintenance cost Better light quality Readily available 16

17 LED Example Replace 10 x double T8 fittings Assume 14hr / day, 7 day operation NUoS Tariff 82 Projected delivered energy: $244/MWh $144 / kva pa Cost of new fittings ~ $1,000 installed Annual Savings Energy $685 Demand $80 Total $765 Payback < 1.5 years T5 payback ~ 2 years 17

18 PV Solar Well proven Many suppliers > 20 year life Some degradation over time Pay back < 4 years On projected energy rates 18

19 PV / Solar Example Assume 30 kva system, no export Cost $39K installed Produce 44 MWh pa $10,736 at expected rates Payback 3.63 years 19

20 More detailed energy analysis Refrigeration optimisation HVAC optimisation Hot Water 20

21 Power Factor If you understand Power Factor, no explanation is necessary. If you don t understand Power Factor then no explanation is possible. 21

22 Power Factor Example Assume 80 kva 0.75 PF Correct to 0.95 PF Cost for PFC $7K Annual savings $1.9K Payback 3.7 years We will contact sites with PF <

23 TEELS Available for home and small businesses 3 year interest free loan up to $10,000 Scheme administered through Aurora, loan provided through Westpac Only available on eligible energy efficient products. For example; Solar panels Solar battery storage Lighting upgrades Hot water system Ceiling and floor insulation Building upgrades small business 23

24 Tasmanian Gas Pipe? 24

25 Questions Mark Searle Key Energy & Resources Ph: (03) AiG Presentation Tas May 2017