Thailand Steel Industry 2009 and Outlook Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand

Transcription

1 Thailand Steel Industry 29 and Outlook 21 Iron and Steel Institute of Thailand 18 May 21 1

2 Contents Macro economics situation Downstream industry situation Steel industry in 29 and 21 outlook 2

3 Thai economy contracted by 2.3 % in 29, faster than expected Source: National Board of Economic and Social Development 3

4 Only government spending showed positive growth rate GDP growth by expenditure Source: National Board of Economic and Social Development 4

5 Before demonstration in center of Bangkok, economic outlook seem so well Thailand GDP growth projection (%) Jan 21 Mar Capital Nomura Kasikorn Research Standard Charter ING DBS Bank HSBC Average NESDB na n.a na n.a. Source: Bank of Thailand Inflation Report Apr 21 5

6 Political unrest, lead to gloomy economic outlook Transmission channels of political unrest into economic slower growth Source: Nomura Global Economics 6

7 Some research institutes revise economic outlook Economic outlook with political l unrest issue Remark *G Gross fixed capital lformation ** Customs department basis Source: Capital Nomura Securities 7

8 Contents Macro economics summary Downstream industry summary Steel industry in 29 and 21 outlook 8

9 Construction boom period already passed since 24 Permitted area for construction - Total 16, Permitted area for construction - Housing 22, 2, 14, 18, 12, 16, 14, , 12, Permitted area for construction - Commercial 1, 5, , 3, Construction ti (' square meter) 9/8 Highest record during last 1 years Highest record year 2, 1, Permitted area for construction - Total -3% 22, Permitted area for construction - Housing -12% 16, Permitted area for construction - Commercial 29% 3, Permitted area for construction - Industry 8% 2, , 4, 3, Permitted area for construction - Industry 2, 1, Source: Bank of Thailand

10 Housing structure change from house to condominium 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, New housing registration in Bangkok and vicinity area - Total , 3, 2, 1, 5, 4, New housing registration in Bangkok and vicinity area - House New housing registration in Bangkok and vicinity area - Condominium 3, 2, 1, , New housing registration in Bangkok and vicinity area - Own construction 3, 2, Source: Bank of Thailand 1,

11 Automotive sector faced a first slump after 1 year growth Automobile production (units) 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Passenger car production Commercial car production Source: Thailand Automotive Institute 11

12 Home appliance sector performed the same pace as automotive Home appliance production ( units) 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Refrigerator Washing machine Air conditioner Compressor Source: Bank of Thailand 12

13 Hard disk production did not drop even facing global economic downturn Hard disk production ( units) 3, Hard disk 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Source: Bank of Thailand 13

14 Canned seafood has gained an advantage from economic crisis Canned food production (tonnes) 8, 6, 4, 2, Canned pineapple Canned seafood 9/8 Highest record during last 1 years Highest record year Canned food (tonnes) Canned pineapple -16% 591, Canned seafood 3% 717, Source: Bank of Thailand 14

15 Contents Macro economics situation Downstream industry situation Steel industry in 29 and 21 outlook 15

16 Thailand apparent steel demand slipped 21% in 29 Steel industry summary Source: ISIT 16

17 Long steel product demand directly impacted from construction Long steel product summary Bar & section (' tonne) Change 9/8 Production 3,579 2, % Import % Export % Apparent Consumption 3,521 2, % Wire rod (' tonne) Change 9/8 Production % Import % Export % Apparent Consumption 1,17 1, -9.6% 17 Source: ISIT

18 Imported steel dropped significantly due to production cut in manufacturing sectors Flat steel product summary HRC inc. P&O (' tonne) Change 9/8 Production 2,846 3,42 6.9% Import 2,467 1, % Export % 4% Apparent Consumption 4,756 4, % HRP (' tonne) Change 9/8 Production % Import % Export % Apparent Consumption % CRC carbon & stainless steel (' tonne) Change 9/8 Production 1,639 1, % Import % Export % Apparent Consumption 223 2, , % Source: ISIT 18

19 Flat steel product summary Galvanizing (' tonne) Change 9/8 Production % Import 1, % Export % Apparent Consumption 1,529 1, % TP & TF (' tonne) Change 9/8 Production % Import % Export % Apparent Consumption % 19 Source: ISIT

20 Recovery on manufacturing sectors has led to steel improving demand, especially import volume. Steel industry summary Total ( (' tonne) Jan-Mar 9 Jan-Mar 1 Change 1/9 Production 1,49 2, % Import 9 1, % Export % Apparent Consumption 1,947 3, % Long (' tonne) Jan-Mar 9 Jan-Mar 1 Change 1/9 Production 79 1, % Import % Export % Apparent Consumption 79 1, % Flat (' tonne) Jan-Mar 9 Jan-Mar 1 Change 1/9 Production 7 1,5 43.6% Import 686 1, % Export % Apparent Consumption 1,158 2, % Source: ISIT 2

21 Steel market already return to 28 level Steel industry situation 1,8, 1,6, 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Source: ISIT Production Import Export Consumption 21

22 Construction is major consuming sector, but share decrease from 6% in last five years Steel industry demand structure in 28 1% = 13.5 million tonnes Industrial 13.1% Appliance 12.3% Auto 15.8% Others.3% Packaging 4.9% Construction 53.6% Source: ISIT 22

23 In 21, steel consuming industries are predicted to gain increasing growth in line with expanding Thailand economy. New housing units in Bangkok Metropolis and Vicinity (unit) 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 67,829 78,116 74,221 77,726 9,971 1% 1,6868 Automotive production (unit) 1,6, 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1,394,29 1,287,346 1,125,315 1,188,44 999,378 35% 1,349, E E Home appliances production (, unit) Canned food production (, unit) 14% 2, 1,2, 8% 15, 1, 5, 8,77 8,97 9,187 9,486 9,19 2,799 2,38 1,98 2,23 1,681 2,417 1,727 1,95 2,1 2,133 1,281 2,175 2,432 3,686 3,985 4,227 4,726 4,367 4, E Refrigerator Washing machine Air conditioner Compressor Source : REIC, TAI, NFI, EEI and ISIT analysis 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, 67,92 699, ,59 652,95 624, , , , , ,4 473, , E Canned pineapple Canned seafood 23

24 Apparent steel demand in 21 is projected to be million tonnes Apparent steel consumption forecast ( tonnes) 16, 14, 13,47 13,876 13,528 12, 12,718 12, ,316 % 1/9 24% 14% 1, 1,765 8, 6, 4, 2, E Assumption Construction sector expand with 5-1% Automotive production expand 3-4% Electrical appliance production expand 1-2% Industrial sector expand 3% - 9% Export of canned food increase by 5-1% Source: ISIT 24