Seismic Studies and Emergency Planning. The Scenario Simulator and the example of the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon

Transcription

1 Seismic Studies and Emergency Planning. The Scenario Simulator and the example of the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon by Carlos Sousa Oliveira (1,2) (1) Instituto Superior Técnico, Lisbon Portugal (2) Nacional Service for Civil Protection, Lisbon Portugal 1

2 Worldwide effects of Seismic Activity The XX-th Century No. fatalities 1,500,000 deaths (15,000 per year) 20 large-magnitude earthquakes per year (M>7) But only 2 per year cause important damages Statistics: XX-th century Total= Largest world events Fatalities Correlation Fatalities-Magnitude Magnitude After Coburn et al,

3 Losses due to earthquakes XX th century Victims throughout the world Human losses Decades

4 Losses due to earthquakes XX th century Economic losses in the world Millions US Dollars (1999)

5 What can do about this tremendous problem? Better perception of the origin and the propagation of seismic waves, including site effects Better perception of the seismic behaviour of all types of structures including lifelines Emergency Planning Reinforcement of existing structures, buildings, lifelines, industrial stock, etc. Development of adequate and update codes Enforcement of codes by quality control 5

6 Earthquakes: Main type of effects Buildings: damages and partial or total collapse» Habitation» Industries» Vital points Lifeline networks, disturbing seriously the social tissue:» Electricity; water, sewerage; roads, railways, telecommunications; etc. Human: dead and injured people (panic and chaotic behavior) Indirect: landslides, liquefaction, etc. Fires, aggravated by water shortage Tsunami 6

7 Earthquake preparedness Institutional level Different Ministries (risk mitigation) Civil Protection:» Risk study» Information and education» Response preparedness (EMERGENCY PLANNING) Individual level Home preparation Family Emergency Planning Self-protection measures 7

8 Seismic Risk Emergency Planning Because it is not possible to predict earthquakes, neither avoid them it is necessary: To minimize the risk Preventive Planning To minimize the effects of the event Operational Planning 8

9 Seismic Risk Emergency Planning Preventive Planning In order to minimize seismic risk, one should: Develop and enforce preventive measures; Improve building regulations for construction and reinforcement; Develop appropriate land-use plans; Carry out civil protection awareness and educational programs for the population, civil protection entities and decisionmakers. 9

10 Seismic Risk Emergency Planning Operational Planning Plan civil protection actions to activate when an earthquake occurs; Organize civil protection entities involved in aid operations, concerning its mission and operational procedures; Plan emergency means and resources management and allocation. 10

11 Main types: Emergency Plans Emergency Master Plans Detailed Response Plans for specific risks CO-ORDINATION i.e. Seismic Risk Emergency Plan 11

12 Scenario Simulation Why it can help emergency planning How it can work Who is doing it An illustration in Portugal The Metropolitan Area of Lisbon The Southern part - Algarve The Azores 12

13 Example of a Regional-scale Study Ruling nº 32/97 of 21/7/1997 / MAI: For: Metropolitan Area of Lisbon Population: inhabitants Buildings: get a deep knowledge of the seismic hazard develop emergency planning for seismic catastrophes 13

14 Emergency Planning Metropolitan Area of Lisbon and surrounding municipalities Cascais Torres Vedras Sintra S. de Magos S. M. Agraço Mafra A. dos Vinhos V. F. de Xira Benavente Loures Amadora Oeiras Lisboa Almada Alenquer Azambuja i Moita Barreiro Seixal Sesimbra Alcochete Montijo Palmela Setúbal Cartaxo Montijo 14

15 Elements at Risk HOUSING STOCK typology, age, geographical distribution» Housing» Important Structures hospitals, fire brigades, Military Forces TV s and radios, other entities LIFE-LINES HUMAN important in the emergency phase, or with possibility of creating additional risks roads and rail-roads energy: water, gas, electricity, telecomunications, etc.. demography and mobility 15

16 Characterization of Elements at Risk Census 1991 Building Stock Unit: parish No. buildings No. housing units No. collective units No. residents per unit Taking into consideration: No. Stories Age Type of resisting elements 16

17 MAI-SNPC Elements at Risk LIFE-LINES / INFRA-STRUCTURES Roads and Rail-Roads Electricity Gas and Fuel Water Sewage Telecomunications 17 Estudo do risco sísmico da AML e de 7 Concelhos Limítrofes Palácio Valenças, 4 Julho 2001

18 MAI-SNPC Elements at Risk HUMAN CARACTERIZATION: SOCIO-ECONOMIC OF THE POPULATION» Population and Development» Economic Activities and Employment» Equipment ACCESS AND SPACIAL MOBILITY» Spacial Mobility in the urban space / metro» Transportation system 18 Estudo do risco sísmico da AML e de 7 Concelhos Limítrofes Palácio Valenças, 4 Julho 2001

19 MAI-SNPC Elements at Risk HUMAN ESTIMATIVE OF POPULATION PRESENT AT DIFFERENT TIME INTERVALS Working period Anual Holidays Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa Su Working days: 6 Periods Weekends: 3 Períodos 19 Estudo do risco sísmico da AML e de 7 Concelhos Limítrofes Palácio Valenças, 4 Julho 2001 Hour Day Month

20 MAI-SNPC Evaluation of Vulnerabilities VULNERABILITY function of: Typology of buildings / life-lines, Seismic Action, Local Geology, Etc. 20 Estudo do risco sísmico da AML e de 7 Concelhos Limítrofes Palácio Valenças, 4 Julho 2001

21 Evaluation of Vulnerablities MAI-SNPC Estudo do risco sísmico da AML e de 7 Concelhos Limítrofes Palácio Valenças, 4 Julho 2001 Exemple: Buildings 1. Use of Building Census 1991/2001. Unit of analysis is the parish/block 2. Classification of elements at Risk according to their seismic Vulnerability 49 classes based on age, structural type, no. of stories 3. Definition of fragility curves to adopt in each class based on Hazus 99 methodology 4. Computation of probabilities associated to each damage state, for a given seismic scenario 5. Comparison of results with Coburn & Spence 21

22 Evaluation of Vulnerablities MAI-SNPC Estudo do risco sísmico da AML e de 7 Concelhos Limítrofes Palácio Valenças, 4 Julho 2001 Exemple: ROADS 1. Survey and Identification of elements at Risk 2. Geometrical Definition of segments 3. Classification of elements at Risk according to their seismic Vulnerability 4. Definition of fragility curves to adopt in each class of elements at Risk 5. Computation of probabilities associated to each damage state, for a given seismic scenario 22

23 MAI-SNPC DAMAGE for a Seismic Scenario Epicenter Magnitude Time of Occurrence SIMULATION MODEL Estimative of DAMAGE Estimate: Affected Building stock Affected Life-lines Affected Important Structures No. of deaths, injureds and homeless 23 Estudo do risco sísmico da AML e de 7 Concelhos Limítrofes Palácio Valenças, 4 Julho 2001

24 What kind of Scenario The largest historical event The more frequent event A collection of events with different features The event compatible with a certain Mean Return Period The event causing the most probable risk for the population, for the building stock, for the historical patrimony, etc

25 MAI-SNPC Seismic Scenario PINHAL NOVO EARTHQUAKE Epicenter: Pinhal Novo Fault Magnitude: 7 Richter Probability of occurrence 25 Estudo do risco sísmico da AML e de 7 Concelhos Limítrofes Palácio Valenças, 4 Julho 2001

26 Damage to Building Stock Pinhal Novo Earthquake Losses of households Total = Estimative deaths Total = 2000 Tiedmann 26

27 Other examples According to studies on the economic impact of an earthquake similar to 1755, this earthquake would produce great losses in Portugal and Spain. Morocco will also be greatly affected. Other large earthquakes will affect simultaneous several EU countries. 27

28 Scenario Studies Help public authorities preparing emergency planning Define means and resources to cope with potential earthquakes Accelerate on-line damage assessment caused by an earthquake Quantify extend of any programme for repair and retrofit of structures 28

29 On-line damage assessment Very many decisions can be made and the operation process can be speed up quite significantly if the decision maker can access to the data from the simulator together with the data that is brought into the system from observations in the field: Information from special locations carried out by pre-assigned inspectors; Data from strong motion instrumentation; Damage reports from different witnesses. 29

30 The Strong Motion (SM) Project for Rapid Damage Evaluation It aims at the development, installation and operation of a SM network in the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon (AML) to be a tool for rapid evaluation of damaged areas in the aftermath of an earthquake. It will be an important complement to the AML Project, reducing uncertainties and aiding in the determination of the zones of higher damage in the case of a moderate/strong earthquake. This information is then rapidly diffused to the civil protection and other emergency agents. 30

31 SM for the AML Project SM station 31

32 Continuation The SM network will produce, within a few minutes after the event, a good approximation of the severity of the motion felt at a group of stations, in terms of acceleration. At a later stage, a cross-check will be introduced when the process of determination of seismological characteristics of the event are made by the Seismological Agencies. 32

33 Inter-action with the Simulator Simulator results obtained from knowledge of epicentre location and magnitude are confronted with SM insitu determinations Feed-back is re-introduced in the Simulator for a second iteration Uncertainties on damage distribution are foreseen with great confidence 33

34 Final Word Simulator can help to define the policies for retrofiting and corresponding costs Put pressure on the authorities to develop programmes to put retrofit in action Sensibilize the population for the problem Never Forget that: Prediction does not help in this matter To ignore the problem is outrage and put that burden in future generations 34

35 End National Service for Civil Protection Instituto Superior Técnico 35