CIFE welcome CIFE Copyright 2013

Transcription

1 welcome

2 Overview 100% funded by industry Building owners Design and construction companies Software and hardware vendors Building Information Modeling (BIM) Virtual Design and Construction (VDC) project focus Optimize Facility Performance Enterprise focus 2

3 Current success stories: Reports from 2012 Summer Program Designers/engineers: 30% reduction in project schedule (GPLA) 33% cost reduction (Sera) 328x increase in number of design versions (Arup) 99.99% reduction in design cycle time (Beck) Design-Builders: 48% reduction in man hours (Beck) 30% reduction in cost (NCC) >99% reduction in design batch size (GT) 85% reduction in effort to track supply chains (Optima) Builders: 95% reduction in field rework (DPR) 20% improvement in field productivity (DPR) 0% reduction in scope (DPR) 3

4 Current success Evidence-based management: metrics on organization and process performance Multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO): Automated rapid generation of (thousands of) design alternatives Big data Professional VDC Certificate Program 4

5 Plus-Delta of Civil and Environmental Engineering Provides fixed physical assets and wealth of society High global demand for infrastructure and housing Opportunity to impact global climate challenge significantly Low productivity compete with other ways to spend $ High energy use and rising energy costs Structural reliability << societal need (Chile) Environmental degradation US Department of Commerce, compiled by P. Teicholz Persson, Sustainable City of Tomorrow: B01 Experiences of a Swedish Housing exposition Guilllermo Gomez, PUChile th-risks-from-air-pollution-8143/slide/7 5

6 The mission to be the world's premier academic research center for Virtual Design and Construction of Architecture - Engineering - Construction (AEC) industry projects. Virtual Design and Construction (VDC) is the use of multi-disciplinary performance models of design-construction projects, including the Product (i.e., facilities), Organization of the design - construction - operation team and Work Processes in order to support business objectives to support exceptionally reliable engineering and management processes to plan, design, construct and operate sustainable facilities 6

7 The mission to be the world's premier academic research center for Virtual Design and Construction of Architecture - Engineering - Construction (AEC) industry projects. Virtual Design and Construction (VDC) is the use of multi-disciplinary performance models of design-construction projects, including the Product (i.e., facilities), Organization of the design - construction - operation team and Work Processes in order to support business objectives to support exceptionally reliable engineering and management processes to plan, design, construct and operate sustainable facilities is there something better to do to meet these goals? 7

8 methods Entirely industry-funded Needs to simultaneously serve diverse constituents: (Industrial) sponsors (Academic) stakeholders: dean, faculty Students has a 25 year history Practice Research Education 8

9 Summary of role translational research gives practitioners the opportunity to identify, explore, develop and apply new methods that have great potential value with low risk and (relatively) low cost Practice Research Education 9

10 VDC elements Slide by Martin Fischer 10

11 Design of VDC has a management focus Product: classic focus of engineering design and analysis First object-oriented CAD models at Stanford Organization: Necessary because of complexity Process and production management Necessary because projects live over time Emerged from discipline of CEM, started at Stanford 11

12 Management objectives and metrics What they are: metrics, target and measured values, status (R/G/Y) Coordination latency (days). Latency of different teams 12

13 Management objectives and metrics What they are: metrics, target and measured values, status (R/G/Y) Management maturity definition So what: Bloom et al. Performance tracks management 13

14 Controllable Product, organization, process designs Coordination activity: planned, explicit, public, informed > 90% Facility managed Scope: 100% of items with > 2% of value, time, cost or energy Prediction basis: > 80% of predictions founded Production management: Drivers short intervals (Multiple) Predictable performance objectives: Process [Conformance to plans] Latency: mean <= 1; 95% within 2 working days Field-generated Requests for Information: 0 Rework volume: 0 (for field construction work); objective = 10-20% (virtual work) *Function (quality) conformance (%): >= 99% Outcomes: major milestones Outcome [Project/ Enterprise Performance] Safety: 0 lost hours Schedule: 1 y Design <.5 y Construct 95% on-time performance Cost: >= 95% of budgeted items within 2% of budgeted cost Quality - Delivered Scope: 100% satisfaction by POE Design versions: 2 or more >= 80% Staff trained in VDC: >= 4/project Schedule conformance (%): >= 80% Cost conformance (%): >= 95% *Sustainability: >75% better energy, water, materials, than 2002, profitably Globalization: >= 50% of supply and sales 14

15 Performance objectives for DPR Production management [Conformance to plans] Latency: mean <= 1; 95% within 2 working days Field-generated Requests for Information: 0 Rework volume: 0 (for field construction work); objective = 10-20% (virtual work) Outcome [Enterprise Performance] Safety: 0 lost hours Schedule: 1 y Design <.5 y Construct 95% on-time performance Cost: >= 95% of budgeted items within 2% of budgeted cost *Function (quality) conformance (%): >= 99% Quality - Delivered Scope: 100% satisfaction by POE Schedule conformance (%): >= 80% Cost conformance (%): >= 95% *Sustainability: >75% better energy, water, materials, than 2002, profitably Globalization: >= 50% of supply and sales Staff trained in VDC: > 90% of all projects have >= 4 VDC specialists Other: Courtesy: DPR Drivers 15

16 Broad, disciplined adoption - field: Breakthrough performance objectives for 2015 Internal objectives External objectives to clients 16

17 Enables: Multi-disciplinary teams to visualize construction of large (or small) projects and View multi-disciplinary predictions of value and costs Over time 4D+: 4D with analytics 17

18 Flager: MDO Current success story: Multi-disciplinary design Optimization for AEC 18

19 Basbagill, Flager: MDO Cloud-based multi-disciplinary design optimization 19

20 Morkos: Space Constraint MDO Method Current success story: Schedule by exploring many or schedule options SCM schedule durations average 47% shorter than LOB 20

21 VDC Certificate Program Big ideas: The VDC certificate program is the single most effective initiative in helping member organizations to get high value from adoption of VDC methods. It provides professional education to enable participants to: Understand basic theory and practice of VDC; Develop awareness of trends, potential results and issues in using VDC; Develop specific skills in collaborative use of VDC methods. Photo courtesy DPR 22

22 Good practice uses multiple VDC methods: DPR Process Metrics Target Costing Design Assist Process Virtual Building Tools Design the Big Room Virtual Company Collaborative Planning Big Room

23 Total Economic Impact Model - GC Assume: Constant revenues Lower contract costs Higher internal costs: 1 FTE Rate Baseline ($K) Change in Rate Year-1 (K$) Revenue 100% 100, % 100,000 Cost of contracted work 85% 85, % 83,000 Cost of self-performed work 10% 10, % 11,500 Gross Predicted Margin 5,000 5,500 Sales, G&A 2% 2,000 2,000 (Higher) profit IT investment (K$) 100 Amortized costs of IT/yr 50% 50 Net income 3,000 3,450 Time to payback (years) 0.2 Net Income change (%) 15.0 << 2-year payback Assumption Prediction given assumptions (c)

24 Owner investment Better than GC, Sub IT investment by Owner in a new building built in Year-1 -- version 1 Rate (%) Year 1: Design- Build w/o investment (K$) Year 1: Design- Build w/investment (K$) Year-2 O&M w/o investment ($K) Design-build initial cost 40,000 40,000 Design-build cost change w/investment (%) -1.0% -400 Year-2 O&M w/invest-ment ($K) Net facility revenue (annual) 12.5% 5,000 5,000 Revenue change w/investment 0.0% 400 O&M cost (annual) 2.0% O&M change w/investment -1.0% (8) Amortized facility costs 2.6% 1,026 1,026 IT investment Amortized costs of IT/year 50.0% 0 (50) Net income 6,826 7,168 Time to payback IT investment (yrs) 0.3 Net Income change (%) 5.0 << 2-year payback (c)

25 The mission to be the world's premier academic research center for Virtual Design and Construction of Architecture - Engineering - Construction (AEC) industry projects. Virtual Design and Construction (VDC) is the use of multi-disciplinary performance models of design-construction projects, including the Product (i.e., facilities), Organization of the design - construction - operation team and Work Processes in order to support business objectives to support exceptionally reliable engineering and management processes to plan, design, construct and operate sustainable facilities 26

26 The mission to be the world's premier academic research center for Virtual Design and Construction of Architecture - Engineering - Construction (AEC) industry projects. Virtual Design and Construction (VDC) is the use of multi-disciplinary performance models of design-construction projects, including the Product (i.e., facilities), Organization of the design - construction - operation team and Work Processes in order to support business objectives to support exceptionally reliable engineering and management processes to plan, design, construct and operate sustainable facilities is there something better to do to meet these goals? 27