SubCoast. SubCoast/Terrafirma Workshop Copenhagen, 7/8 June Assessing and Forecasting Subsidence Hazards in Coastal Lowland Areas around Europe

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1 Assessing and Forecasting Subsidence Hazards in Coastal Lowland Areas around Europe SubCoast SubCoast/Terrafirma Workshop Copenhagen, 7/8 June 2011 Hansje Brinker Dijkmonitoring

2 SubCoast - Objective The main objective of SubCoast is to develop a user-centered downstream GMES-service for delivering data and information on extent and impact of subsidence in coastal lowland areas around Europe and demonstrate its viability in various pilot services for a variety of geographical settings and applications. 2

3 GMES EU led initiative for monitoring environment and security Services for Land, Marine, Atmosphere, Security, Emergency and Climate Development of value-added services Multiple data-sources: space-borne and in-situ European Space Agency s Sentinelprogramme 3

4 Coastal Lowland Areas Most populated areas in the world and of great economic importance notably affected by subsidence 85% of deltas experienced severe flooding in past decades Area prone to flooding could increase 50% during 21 st century 4

5 Rising sea levels and subsiding coasts 5

6 Causes of relative sea level Decreased aggradation River training works Levees Eustatic Sea Level Rise Natural compaction Man-induced compaction Crustal movement Syvitski et al.,

7 Impacts of Subsidence in Coastal Areas 7

8 Soft-soils and compaction 8

9 Abrasion and shortening of shore lines

10 MEuro/ja Costs of Subsidence in the Netherlands Water management (600 MEuro/year) Damage to buildings and infrastructure (1650 MEuro/jaar) Maintenance Water defence (1400 MEuro/jaar) Local damage due to sinkholes (6 MEuro/jaar) Water Management Damage to buildings and infrastructure Levees & sea defence Local damage due to sinkholes Earthquakes 10

11 Issues to adress Subsidence in relation to sea level rise and its impact on flood risk. Failing water defence structures and engineered constructions due to subsidence Impact of subsidence on the geomorphological, ecological and hydrological systems 11

12 SubCoast - Focus Deriving indicators of environmental and economic impact Pilot services: Wide-scale subsidence maps EO-based Water defense monitoring Impact Maps Forecasts and assessments Coordinated provision of data Build a user federation and service delivery model 12

13 Pilots 13

14 Involved Stakeholders 14

15 Pilot Issues Service by SubCoast Rhine-Meuse Delta Southern Emilia Romagna Baltic Relative Sea Level Rise Flood Defence Management Anthropogenic vs. Natural subsidence Salt Water Intrusion Habitat disruption Relative Sea Level Rise Coastal erosion Flood risk Relative Sea Level Rise Coastal erosion due to mass movements (Neo)tectonic movements Flood risk Absolute Wide Scale PSI PSI-derived structural dyke assessment Subsidence assessment (shallow vs. deep) Groundwater risk forecast maps Ecological risk forecast maps Estimated Relative Sea Level Rise PSI-derived 3D-ground motion High resolution DEM generation Estimated Relative Sea Level Rise Coastal Erosion map Map delineating (neo)tectonic movements Coastal Flood Risk map SubCoast/Terrafirma European Workshop, Relative Sea Level Rise 15 Estimated Relative Sea Level Rise

16 In-situ measurements 16

17 Using Satellite Data 17

18 Mapping Subsidence over Coastal Lowland Areas 18

19 Monitoring Levees Stable Deformation Outlier Autonomous Movement Hansje Brinker Dijkmonitoring 19

20 Detailed assessments Vertical motion E-W motion High resolution mapping Vertical and East-West motion estimation SubCoast/Terrafirma "Let's Embrace Space", Workshop, Copenhagen Budapest 2011 Data integration for subsidence map 20 13

21 Subsidence maps RSL Impact Maps Forecasting/ Assesment 21

22 Modeling and Forecasting Water Level (cm); first aquifer; 1972 High : -15 Low : Subsidence 1993 (cm) High : Low : Water Level (cm); first aquifer; 1993 High : Low :

23 Example Forecasting Zuiderzeeland 23

24 SubCoast Connections Contributing Projects (EC/ESA) -OneGeology -Deltadapt -MELA -ASTRA -Eurosion -eearth In-Situ Data -GMES (EEA) -Nat. Geodetic -EUREF/GPS -PSMSL/Sealevel -Geol. Surveys SubCoast GMES-Services -Geoland -MyOcean -Safer Terrafirma GMES Data Access Portfolio GMES Space Data (ESA) European Programmes CZM (EEA)/Flood Dir. (JRC) Nat. Stakeholders/Programmes Regional Stakeholders/Programmes 24

25 25

26 Data Provision 26

27 Assessing and Forecasting Subsidence Hazards in Coastal Lowland Areas around Europe Thank you for your attention Hansje Brinker Dijkmonitoring