An overview of global cement sector trends
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1 An overview of global cement sector trends Insights from the Global Cement Report 1 th Edition XXX Technical Congress FICEM-APCAC 2 September, 213 Lima, Peru Thomas Armstrong International Cement Review
2 Agenda Review of global cement markets in 212 Consumption, production, trade, capacity Industry performance, capacity, prices, emerging majors Global growth scenarios and outlook Focus on key markets & trends in 213 Conclusions Global cement industry trends 3
3 Global cement demand (1) Global cement demand, E 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, E Demand (Mt) % Change Linear (% Change) 12.% 1.% 8.% 6.% 4.% 2.%.% Global volumes have doubled over the last decade, from 1.8bnt in 22 to 3.7bnt in 212, reflecting a CAGR of 7.4%. Compares to a CAGR of 4.3% in the previous decade ( ). Global cement industry trends 4
4 Regional economic growth trends 2 GDP Growth, World Regions, E 15 World Advanced economies % Change 1 5 European Union Emerging market and developing economies Latin America and the Caribbean China -5-1 Global cement industry trends 5
5 Global cement demand (2) (Mn Mt) Evolution of cement demand E 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, E Mature Markets Emerging Markets China Global cement demand is dominated by China (39% in 22 vs 58% in 212) Steady growth in emerging markets Mature markets entered into a period of contraction from 28 Global cement industry trends 6
6 Regional consumption % 13% Western Europe % 6% 3% 3% 4% 4% Central & Eastern Europe 47% 8% North America South&Central America Africa Indian Sub-Continent 5% 8% 5% 4% Middle East South Asia North Asia 61% 5% 7% Australasia 5% 5% 5% Global cement industry trends 7
7 Top 15 cement consumers (Mt) Top Consumers, Rank by volume China 1 1 India 2 2 USA 3 3 Brazil 8 4 Russia 9 5 Iran 14 6 Turkey 15 7 Indonesia 12 8 Saudi Arabia 19 9 Egypt 13 1 Vietnam South Korea 5 12 Japan 4 13 Mexico 1 14 Germany Global cement industry trends 8
8 Per capita consumption Per capita consumption, selected countries (kg) 1,8 1,6 1,683 1,581 1,4 1,2 1, Global cement industry trends 9
9 Per capita consumption - LatAm Per capita consumption, LatAm v World (kg) Global cement industry trends 1
10 Top 15 cement producers Top producers, (Mt) Global cement industry trends 11
11 Top 1 importers & exporters, 212 4Mt 8Mt 4% 7Mt 4Mt 4Mt 13Mt 14Mt 11Mt 9Mt 6Mt 8Mt 9Mt 4Mt 1Mt 12Mt 5Mt 11Mt 8Mt 5Mt 11Mt 96% Non trade Trade Importer Exporter Total of 167Mt traded in 212 (4% of prod.) Top 2 exporters account for 85% of exports Global cement industry trends 12
12 Contracted capacity, Contracted capacity by region, 211, Mt (Mt) Asia (excl. China & India) India Russia Europe North America Latin America MiddleEast Africa 14Mt of new kiln capacity contracted at peak in 26 (ex-china) 46Mt contracted in 211, with no new projects in North America and Western Europe, falling to 4Mt in 212 Global cement industry trends 13
13 Leading companies Cement capacities of leading producers, 212 (Mta) Global cement industry trends 14
14 YoY Change (%) (Mt) Top 6 company performance Top 6 Majors, Sales Volumes - YoY Change (%), (1H) H 213 Net capacity change (Mt), Top 6 Majors, Holcim Lafarge Heidelberg Cemex Italcementi Buzzi Unicem Global majors hit by collapse of demand in key markets from 28 High debt levels and financial inflexibility resulted in a severe slowdown in capex, M&A, opening up opportunities to the emerging majors Companies now readjusting to new economic realities (ie Cemex/Holcim deal) Votorantim overtakes Buzzi Unicem as sixth largest international company following Cimpor deal Global cement industry trends 15
15 Global growth scenarios E 214F 215F 216F 217F 5-Yr CARG 7to12 12to17 World 3,585 3,73 3,967 4,157 4,31 4,464 4, % 4.3% % Change 8.3% 4.% 6.3% 4.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.% China 2,5 2,16 2,333 2,438 2,511 2,586 2, % 4.1% % Change 1.8% 5.4% 8.% 4.5% 3.% 3.% 2.% World Ex-China 1,535 1,57 1,634 1,719 1,799 1,878 1, % 4.5% % Change 5.% 2.3% 4.1% 5.2% 4.6% 4.4% 4.4% Mature Markets % 2.3% % Change 2.5% -3.7%.3% 2.2% 3.2% 2.7% 2.8% EM ex-china 1,113 1,164 1,226 1,32 1,368 1,436 1,56 5.2% 5.3% % Change 6.% 4.6% 5.4% 6.2% 5.1% 4.9% 4.9% Global cement industry trends 16
16 Per capita consumption Cement consumption vs GDP, per capita, Libya 1 South Korea Cement consumption per capita (kg) 8 Iran Turkey Vietnam 6 Egypt Morocco Iraq Poland Portugal Russia 4 Thailand Czech Republic Brazil Peru Mexico Spain Hong Kong Germany Japan 2 Indonesia South Africa Nigeria Kenya United Kingdom USA 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, GDP per capita (US$) Global cement industry trends 17
17 United States in recovery Cement consumption, USA, F 3% Annual value of construction put in place (YoY % change) % 1% % -1% -2% % 2-4% Total Construction Residential Nonresidential Monthly cement consumption, USA, (Mt) New residential construction, Jul '12 to Jul '13 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ' units 1, Starts Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Completions Under construction Global cement industry trends 18
18 Brazil growth weakens Annual cement consumption, Brazil, F (Mt) Monthly cement consumption, Brazil, YTD (Mt) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec % 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% -15% -2% -3% Annual cement consumption, Brazil, F (% Change YoY) 14% 16% 11% 11% 8% 7% 7% 2% 3% 5% 5% 1% -1% Per capita consumption reached 33kg Huge infrastructure and housing requirements 82Mt domestic capacity 33Mt new capacity planned between Capacity to reach 11Mt in 215 risk of surplus Global cement industry trends 19
19 Spain hope in sight? 6 5 Spanish consumption, 22-15F % 1% 2.5 Apparent consumption, Spain, Monthly, YTD % -1% -2% -3% %. Consumption (mt) YoY Change Evolution of construction in Spain, YoY % change, Cement price index, Spain, Total Building Total Civil Works Base Total Construction Global cement industry trends 2
20 Russia growth moderating Annual cement consumption, Russia, F % 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% -15% -2% -25% -3% -35% Consumption (Mt) YoY Change (%), R/H column Recovery from 29 crisis complete, with double digit growth between Economy slowing and demand softening. Per capita consumption below average at 42kg 8% capacity utilises wet process technology 23Mt of new capacity planned by 215 Potential capacity shortages by 22 Global cement industry trends 21
21 India below expectations Annual cement consumption, India, F Consumption (Mt) Projections for the Indian cement industry, FY12/13-216/17 Financial year Cement Capacity YoY Change (%), R/H column Consumption (Mt) capacity (Mta) change (%) % % % % % % % % Source: Planning Commission, India 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % GDP growth slips below 5% (lowest rate in decade), as demand growth weakens Capacity doubled since 27 to 35Mta (212) Improving capacity utilization (73%), but additional 13Mt capacity planned over current 5-yr plan (213-17) Land acquisition, environmental permitting, slower demand will slow aggressive expansion plans Per capita consumption very low at only 191kg vs 513kg global average AFR usage only 1% Global cement industry trends 22
22 China - resetting to sustainable course? Annual cement consumption, China, F 3, 25% 2,5 2, 1,5 1, ,59 1,2 1,32 1,372 1,6 1,85 2,5 2,16 2,333 2,438 2,511 2% 15% 1% 5 5% % Consumption (Mt) YoY Change (%), R/H column Growth tripled from 72Mt in 22 to 2.16bnt in 212 (CAGR11.6%) 58% of global consumption Per capita consumption reached 1518kg in 212 (x3 global av.) Future growth reset to more sustainable course, with CAGR 4% over F Demand is expected to peak this decade, after which per capita levels will gradually revert toward average global levels Overcapacity, intense competition, low utilization rates impacting on profitability Global cement industry trends 23
23 213 YTD a mixed performance 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% Cement market indicators, selected countries, 1H13 19% 13% 11% 1% 9% 7% 7% 7% 3% 1% % % -1% -2% -3% -7% -8% -15% -13% -2% -25% -3% -18% -23% -24% Turkey Nigeria Peru China Saudi Arabia Indonesia Argentina Russia India Brazil USA UK Colombia Mexico Egypt France Germany Morocco Italy Poland Spain Global cement industry trends 24
24 Global Cement Report 1 th Edition New 213 edition out now THE GLOBAL CEMENT REPORT TENTH EDITION Fully revised and updated 1 th Edition released in 213 Available now! Includes: Cement statistics: country profiles World summary Forecasts year database Published by ICR subscribe@cemnet.com Website: Global cement industry trends 25
25 Thank you Thomas Armstrong Managing Editor International Cement Review Website: Global cement industry trends 26
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