think about the ENVIRONMENT

Transcription

1 October 2017

2 think about the ENVIRONMENT 2

3 Cement companies in Indonesia Domestic Capacity (2017) 2017F Design Capacity : mt Production Capacity: 74.0 mit Domestic Growth : 5.0% Domestic Utilization: 70% Supply Domestic : 69 mt Export : 5 mt Import : 3 mt 1. Semen Indonesia 35.5 mt 2. Indocement TP 24.9 mt 3. Lafarge Holcim Indonesia 14.5 mt 4. Semen Merah Putih 7.5 mt 5. Semen Bosowa 7.0 mt 6. Semen Anhui Conch 4.5 mt 7. Semen Baturaja 3.8 mt 8. Semen Pan Asia 1.9 mt 9. Siam Cement Group 1.8 mt 10. Semen Jui Shin 1.5 mt 11. Semen Serang (Haohan) 1.2 mt 12. Semen Jakarta 1.0 mt 13. Semen Hippo (Sun Fook) 0.6 mt 14. Semen Kupang 0.3 mt 15. Semen Puger 0.3 mt TOTAL 106,3 mio ton *) Source: SMGR intemal calculation 3

4 Opportunity Regional Cement Market 4

5 Supply-Demand Cement in Asia Pacific 2017E (mtpa) Design Cap. Production Cap. Consumption Export (Import) China 3794,4 2390,6 2380,5 10,1 India ,7 311,7 2 Indonesia 106, Vietnam 91,5 74,6 57,5 17,1 South Korea 71,6 53,1 50,2 2,9 Thailand 60,5 36,4 31,3 5,1 Pakistan 48 39,7 30,8 8,9 Malaysia 41,3 23,6 22,9 0,7 Philippines 34, ,5-0,5 Australia 13,2 8,7 9,5-0,8 Myanmar 10,5 8 9,8-1,8 Laos ,3 2,7 Source : Global cement, Bloomberg, Digital Cement 5

6 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Semen Indonesia sales volume SMGR's Domestic ASP SMGR's Domestic Sales Vol. Sep-17 Sep-16 Chg (%) 9M17 9M16 Chg (%) Indonesia Semen Gresik 1,38 1,34 3,0% 11,00 10,12 8,7% Semen Padang 0,63 0,58 8,3% 4,58 4,54 1,0% Semen Tonasa 0,50 0,50 0,3% 3,81 3,99-4,4% Total Domestic 2,51 2,42 3,7% 19,39 18,64 4,0% Export 0,13 0,06 108,1% 1,39 0,42 229,2% Total Volume from Indonesia 2,64 2,48 6,3% 20,78 19,07 9,0% Vietnam Domestic Vietnam 0,13 0,15-14,3% 1,40 1,29 8,3% Export 0,00 0,05-100,0% 0,34 0,56-40,2% Total Volume from Vietnam 0,13 0,21-36,5% 1,74 1,85-6,3% Total Volume 2,77 2,69 3,0% 22,51 20,92 7,6% Source: Company data, Indonesia Cement Association 6

7 Indonesia cement sales volume SMGR sales volume (million tons) Sep-17 Sep-16 Chg (%) 9M17 9M16 Chg (%) Domestic Semen Gresik 1,38 1,34 3,0% 11,00 10,12 8,7% Semen Padang 0,63 0,58 8,3% 4,58 4,54 1,0% Semen Tonasa 0,50 0,50 0,3% 3,81 3,99-4,4% Total Domestic 2,51 2,42 3,7% 19,39 18,64 4,0% Export 0,13 0,06 108,1% 1,39 0,42 229,2% Total Volume 2,64 2,48 6,3% 20,78 19,07 9,0% Market Share 39,9% 43,4% 40,9% 41,9% Indonesia Domestic Sales Volume (million tons) AREA Sep-17 Sep-16 Chg (%) 9M17 9M16 Chg (%) JAKARTA 0,46 0,38 20,4% 3,53 3,42 3,1% BANTEN 0,30 0,25 20,6% 2,25 2,10 7,0% WEST JAVA 0,93 0,79 18,6% 6,87 6,29 9,1% CENTRAL JAVA 0,90 0,74 20,9% 6,52 5,59 16,8% YOGYAKARTA 0,10 0,10-0,8% 0,80 0,70 13,6% EAST JAVA 0,86 0,81 6,1% 6,99 6,12 14,2% TOTAL JAVA 3,55 3,07 15,6% 26,96 24,23 11,3% SUMATRA 1,35 1,20 12,2% 9,99 9,58 4,2% KALIMANTAN 0,38 0,39-2,3% 2,90 3,08-5,8% SULAWESI 0,53 0,49 9,1% 3,84 3,87-0,8% NUSA TENGGARA 0,35 0,31 12,1% 2,69 2,63 2,1% MALUKU & IRIAN J. 0,14 0,13 13,2% 1,05 1,10-4,6% TOTAL OUTSIDE JAVA 2,75 2,51 9,4% 20,47 20,27 1,0% TOTAL INDONESIA 6,30 5,59 12,8% 47,43 44,50 6,6% Export EXPORT SEMEN 0,09 0,05 100,8% 0,78 0,35 123,9% EXPORT CLINKER 0,07 0,11-37,5% 1,23 0,85 45,0% TOTAL EXPORT 0,16 0,16 4,3% 2,01 1,20 68,1% GRAND TOTAL 6,47 5,74 12,6% 49,45 45,70 8,2% SMGR Sales Type 9M17 9M16 Chg (%) Bag 14,13 14,23-0,7% Bulk 5,26 4,41 19,1% Industry Sales Type 9M17 9M16 Chg (%) Bag 35,77 34,23 4,5% Bulk 11,67 10,27 13,6% Source: Company data, Indonesia Cement Association 7

8 Domestic market consumption ± Bulk 24.6% Ready-mix (infrastructure): ± 60% Fabricator (pre-cast, fiber cement, cement based industry): ± 35% Projects (mortar, render): ± 5% ± Bag 75.4% Housing:± 90% Cement based industry: ± 10% Source: Internal Research Retail (residential) sector is the largest consumer of cement in Indonesia 8

9 Market by Geography National Cement Distribution Population Distribution Semen Indonesia - Market Destinations Semen Indonesia - Domestic Market Share Semen Indonesia 40.9% Kalimantan 41.1% Jawa 37.4% Sulawesi 64.8% Bali & NT 32.9% Sumatera 42.1% East Indonesia 50.8% Source: Company data, Indonesia Cement Association 9

10 Key Factors Supporting Domestic Cement Consumption INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT Infrastructure Spending Planned for (USD Bn) Central Govt Regional Govt 106 COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL High growth in retail, commercial and SOEs Private Total institutional sector in urban and semi-urban area High growth industry segment (precast, light brick, cement fiber, pave, ready mixed concrete) POTENTIAL MARKET The fourth largest population in the world: 258 millions people (2015) HOUSING Population Growth Rising per Capita Income Mass urbanization CEMENT CONSUMPTION 2016 (KG/CAPITA) Cement Consumption per Capita (kg) average (ex china) = 459kg DEMOGRAPHIC BONUS Rapidly Growing Productive Population 10

11 Strategic Projects Strategic Projects Capacity Investment (US$mn) Construction Start up commercial Start Completion Indarung VI- Sumatera Barat 3.0 Mt 352 Q Q Mid 17 Rembang Jawa Tengah 3.0 Mt 403 Q Q Mid 17 Grinding mill Jawa Barat 2.0 Mt 61.1 Q Q Q17 Waste Heat Recovery Power Generation 30.6 MW 49.3 Q Q Q17 These strategic projects are to ensure the Company position as the market leader. 11

12 Our facilities Kiln Cement Mill Grinding Plant 1 unit 1 unit 1 unit Cement Mill Integrated Cement Plant Kiln Cement Mill Grinding Plant Cement Mill Warehouse Packing Plant Sea Port 4 location 15 Unit 26 Unit 2 location 4 Unit 30 location 24 location 12 location Kiln Cement Mill 5 unit 8 unit Kiln Cement Mill 5 unit 11 unit Grinding Plant 3 unit Cement Mill Kiln Cement Mill 4 unit 6 unit 12

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14 Financial Summary First Half 2017 In Rpbn 1H17 1H16 Change Revenue ,0% Cost revenue ,4% Gross profit ,7% Operating expenses ,9% Operating income ,2% EBITDA ,1% Pre-tax profit ,5% Net profit after minority ,4% EPS (Rp) ,4% Ratio EBITDA margin 20,9% 27,3% -6,4% Gross margin 30% 40% -10% Interest coverage - x 10,1 20,5 (10) Cost ratio 87% 79% 8% Net debt to equity 0,23 0,09 14% Debt to equity 0,40 0,18 22% EBITDA Net profit 14

15 Balance Sheet Cash balance (Rpbn) Total debt (Rpbn) Debt/EBITDA (x) Net Debt/Equity 15

16 Margin & Returns Return on Equity (%) Return on Assets (%) EBITDA/t (US$/t) Receivables Turnover (days) 16

17 Cost structure Cement only (Rpk/t) 1H16 1H17 Chg (%) Raw Material ,5% Fuel ,3% Electricity ,7% Labor ,0% Maintenance ,9% Depletion, Depreciation & Amortization ,3% GA, Tax & Insurance ,5% Packaging ,2% Transportation ,6% Others ,2% COGS per ton ,1% Cash Cost ,2% Opex ,3% Total Cost ,2% 17

18 think about the ENVIRONMENT 18

19 3+1 as a STRATEGY FRAMEWORK of Semen Indonesia To be A Leading International Cement Company in Southeast Asia Commercial Excellence Active Channel Management, Customer Relation Management, Brand Management Construction Material Adjacent Portfolio Regional Expansion (Cement, aggregate, Ready Mixed, Precast etc) Capacity Management Quality Management Green Management Building Material Property Logistic Energy Mining Packaging Investment Cost Transformation Supply Chain Optimization, Operational Efficiency, Corporate Service Cost Transformation System and Structure Business Process Management, ICT, Organization Structure, Capital Structure People and Culture Talent Management, Development Program, CHAMPS Importing Countries Exporting Countries Retaliate 19

20 Value Chain Semen Indonesia UP STREAM MID STREAM DOWN STREAM Raw Material Mining Coal Trading Packaging Blast Furnace Slag (GGBFS) UTSG SI ENERGI IKSG KSI Clinker & Semen SG, SP, ST, TLCC CONSTRUCTION MATERIAL BUILDING MATERIAL Ready Mixed Concrete Precast Aggregate Cement Based Non Cement Based SI BETON SIIB SUPPORTING Information Technology SISI Construction & Fabrication Swadaya Graha Logistic & Distribution SI LOGISTIC Industrial Estate KIG Labor Supply & Travel Swabina Gatra Trading SII Cement Based MORTAR, FIBER CEMENT, BOARD 20

21 Thank You IMPORTANT NOTICE THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE OR FORM PART OF, AND IS NOT MADE IN CONNECTION WITH, ANY OFFER FOR SALE OR SUBSCRIPTION OF OR SOLICITATION, RECOMMENDATION OR INVITATION OF ANY OFFER TO BUY OR SUBSCRIBE FOR ANY SECURITIES NOR SHALL IT OR ANY PART OF IT FORM THE BASIS OF OR BE RELIED ON IN CONNECTION WITH ANY CONTRACT, COMMITMENT OR INVESTMENT DECISION WHATSOEVER. THE SLIDES USED IN THIS PRESENTATION ARE STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL AND HAVE BEEN PREPARED AS A SUPPORT FOR ORAL DISCUSSIONS ONLY. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS PRESENTATION IS BEING PRESENTED TO YOU SOLELY FOR YOUR INFORMATION AND MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED OR REDISTRIBUTED TO ANY OTHER PERSON, IN WHOLE OR IN PART. This presentation includes forward-looking statements, which are based on current expectations and forecast about future events. Such statements involve known / unknown risks uncertainties and other factors, which could cause actual results to differ materially from historical results or those anticipated. Such factors include, among others: economic, social and political conditions in Indonesia, and the impact such conditions have on construction and infrastructure spending in Indonesia; the effects of competition; the effects of changes in laws, regulations, taxation or accounting standards or practices; acquisitions, divestitures and various business opportunities that we may pursue; changes or volatility in inflation, interest rates and foreign exchange rates; accidents, natural disasters or outbreaks of infectious diseases, such as avian influenza, in our markets; labor unrest or other similar situations; and the outcome of pending or threatened litigation. We can give no assurance that our expectations will be attained. DISCLAIMER The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents make any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claim, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a result of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omission or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission therefrom which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. Main Office: Main Building of Semen Gresik Jln. Veteran Gresik Indonesia Phone: (62-31) , Fax: (62-31) , Representative Office: The East Building, 18 floor Jl. Lingkar Mega Kuningan Blok E 3.2 No. 1, JAKARTA Telp.: , ; Faks :