NATIONAL EXPOSURE PROFILE FOR EVIDENCE BASED CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION. Krishna Nadimpalli

Transcription

1 NATIONAL EXPOSURE PROFILE FOR EVIDENCE BASED CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION Krishna Nadimpalli Risk Assessment Framework Earthquake Tsunami Floods Cyclones Infrastructure Failure Engineering Economic Social Casualties People, Buildings, Businesses Infrastructure, Lifeline Utilities Sydney, Australia, April

2 Event x 7.0 M L Earthquake, Wind, Tsunami, Flood, Blast, Plume, etc Hazard Models Geospatial Database Built Environment People Direct Impact Buildings Infrastructure Business Residential Casualties Injuries, Fatalities, Medical costs Built Environment Earthquake, Wind, Tsunami, Flood, Blast, Plume, etc People Event x 7.0 M L Hazard Models Geospatial Database Physical Environment affected System Models Direct Impact Vulnerability Recovery of disrupted CI asset function (% over time) CI damage state estimates Cost / Recovery Estimated capital stock impacts Economy Wide Impact Buildings Infrastructure Impact footprint over time Business Residential Population affected Casualties Community Profiles Age, Income, Employment, Activity, etc Business resilience Injuries, Fatalities, Medical costs Estimated impacts Real GRP, Consumption, Employment, Investment Estimated productivity Disruption induced impacts financial costs & revenue impacts Indirect Impact Sydney, Australia, April

3 Development of NATIONAL EXPOSURE INFORMATION SYSTEM (NEXIS) Nationally consistent and at buildings level Two phases : Statistical for immediate needs & refine with specific Exposure information Infrastructure Institutions Specific Building data Specific Council data State data Rules/ formulas Census data/ Lookup tables Postcode Age profile Statistical Approach Mesh Blocks Cadastre GNAF Geocoded National Address File Development of NATIONAL EXPOSURE INFORMATION SYSTEM (NEXIS) Nationally consistent and at buildings level Two phases : Statistical for immediate needs & refine with specific Residential Spatial Structural Demographic/ Economic Latitude Longitude Address Block size Floor area FCB type Roof type Wall type Storeys Age Income group No. Residences No. People Structural value Content value Sydney, Australia, April

4 Development of NATIONAL EXPOSURE INFORMATION SYSTEM (NEXIS) Nationally consistent and at buildings level Two phases : Statistical for immediate needs & refine with specific Business Spatial Structural Demographic/ Economic Latitude Longitude Address Block size Floor area Façade / Wall type Structural system Storeys Basement Car parks Age Structural value ANZSIC category No. Businesses Customer Capacity Development of NATIONAL EXPOSURE INFORMATION SYSTEM (NEXIS) Nationally consistent and at buildings level Two phases : Statistical for immediate needs & refine with specific Institutions Health Educational Emergency Government Cultural Recreation Spatial Structural Type Hospitals Pre school Police Department Museum Sport Medical Primary Ambulance Religious oval services Secondary Fire urban Services centre centre Nursing Tertiary Fire rural Library stadium home Emergency Race services Tennis Emergency Golf mgmt courses Capacity Staff Staff Staff Staff Staff Staff Volunteers Volunteers Volunteers Volunteers Volunteers Patients Students Vehicles Visitors Visitors No. beds Bathrooms Bathroom No. theatres Showers Showers April 2010 Toilets Toilets Sydney, Australia, April

5 Development of NATIONAL EXPOSURE INFORMATION SYSTEM (NEXIS) Nationally consistent and at buildings level Two phases : Statistical for immediate needs & refine with specific Infrastructure Communication Energy Water Transport Spatial Structural Type Broadcasting Electricity Water supply Road radio AM/FM power/ sub stn catchments Rail TV water source Bridges/tunnels Telecommunication Gas treatment Airports mobile Liquid Fuel transfer Sea ports microwave extraction pumping stations internet (wireless) processing Earth stations storage locations laser/nasa Networks Antennae Transmission Transmission Road Towers lines pipes Rail Coverage Distribution Reticulation regions regions Capacity Sydney, Australia, April

6 Buildings Age Profile Gold Coast National Exposure Profile Type Number of Buildings & Length Replacement Value ($ billion) Residential 7.7 Million 1,896 Commercial 0.22 Million 2,036 Small medium 0.16 Million 141 industrial Total Buildings 8.01 Million 4,073 Freeways 3,300 km 1,155 Highways 60,474 km 514 Main roads 92,331 km 554 Local roads 445,883 km 386 Bridges (Total) 2,893 km Tunnels (Freeways) 52 km Based on 2008 data & cost factors Sydney, Australia, April

7 National Residential Exposure Profile Type Number of buildings (1000s) Replacement Value ($ billion) ACT NSW 2, NT QLD 1, SA VIC 2, TAS WA TOTAL: 8,077 4, Based on 2008 data & cost factors Sydney, Australia, April

8 National Coastal Vulnerability Assessment (NCVA) National Coastal Vulnerability Assessment (NCVA) Hobson Bay LGA Sydney, Australia, April

9 National Coastal Vulnerability Assessment (NCVA) No. of Residential Buildings Replacement Value Sydney, Australia, April

10 National Coastal Vulnerability Assessment (NCVA) Queensland by LGA National Coastal Vulnerability Assessment (NCVA) Replacement Values Length of Roads Sydney, Australia, April

11 Future Directions : Temporal Dynamics Population Dynamics - micro momentum (intraday) - macro momentum (intraweek) - seasonal / event momentum To understand the current infrastructure usage & population demographic exposure to rapid onset of events. Exposure Projections - based on population projections - statistical approach Development of NATIONAL EXPOSURE INFORMATION SYSTEM (NEXIS) National Sectors Residential Commercial Industrial (Small & Medium) Institutions Infrastructure Heavy Industries Agriculture Biodiversity Sydney, Australia, April

12 Future Directions : Summary NEXIS - Specific Version Hazardous Material & Primary Industries Activity Models Development Global Exposure Information System Decision Support Tools = Ls1GAmZP1DGVoqlvR7JdWPybV08=&h=406&w=590&sz=16&hl=en&start=1&um=1&tbnid=tMXkzjEZXuw-_M:&tbnh=93&tbnw=135&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dfuture %2Bairplanes%26hl%3Den%26sa%3DN%26um%3D1 Comments Krishna.nadimpalli@ga.gov.au Sydney, Australia, April