Drivers Of Future Forest Use Las Vegas Oct. 9, 2014

Transcription

1 Drivers Of Future Forest Use Las Vegas Oct. 9, 2014 Dr. David Cohen 1

2 Before I Start 16 9 TV show Liquidating the Forests follows the trail of illegal lumber stolen in Russia, shipped to China and sold in Canada (thru Lumber Liquidators) Illegal wood with high formaldehyde content from adhesive and finish Report form eia titled Liquidating the Forests: Hardwood Flooring, Organized Crime, and the World s Last Siberian Tigers global.org/campaigns/forests campaign/liquidating the forests 2

3 Outline Four Key Interacting Drivers Population Growth Economic Power Shift to Developing Regions with their growing middle class Squeeze on world resources Growing environmental degradation Future Forests 3

4 Global Population Growth Billions of people Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision 4

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6 Population and Deforestation 2 8 Deforestation (billions ha.) Deforestation Population Population (billions) Source: State of Worlds Forest

7 Changing Economic Importance Percent of global GDP Proportion of World GDP (PPP) by Country USA China Germany Canada India Source: International Monetary Fund, (IMF) World Economic Outlook (WEO) Database, October

8 Population growth by degree of development Source: Population Reference Bureau 2013 billions of people Developing countries Developed countries 8

9 And Growing Middle Class Middle Class and Extreme Poverty 1 billion people joined middle class now 2.5 billion (McKinsey predicts 5 billion by 2022) % of world s population in extreme poverty 47% to 22% (>$1.25 per day PPP) BRICs Brazil, Russia, India, China & S. Africa (2001) MIST Mexico, Indonesia, S. Korea & Turkey (2012) 9

10 Squeeze on World Resources: Commodity Prices Source: Dobbs et al., 2011 Resource Revolution: Meeting the world s energy, materials, food and water needs. McKinsey Global Institute.209 pages 10

11 Commodity Prices by Sector Bank of Canada commodity price index Energy Metals & Minerals Forestry Agriculture 11

12 Squeeze on World Resources Leading to high prices and increases in: reduce, recycle and reuse of materials (reduce waste) eco efficiency in most businesses (leaning all operations) innovation & productivity for resource productivity (fracking, LNG, solar panels, ocean wind farms, etc. ) efficiency (Moore s Law, process control, 3D printing, etc.) replacing costly resources with well managed renewables (bioplastics, biochemicals, biofuels) sustainability in business: opportunity not responsibility 12

13 Increasing Ecological Degradation: Global ecological footprint Source: Global Footprint Network August

14 Decline in Ecosystem Services & Resources Millennium Ecological Assessment shows decline in: Air quality regulation Climate regulation Erosion regulation Pollination Capture fisheries Genetic resources Fresh water provisioning Natural medicines and more 14

15 A Simple Story More people need/want more stuff requiring more resources leading to higher resource prices and Environmental Degradation Requiring replacement of non renewable materials with well managed renewable materials e.g. forest products and services 15

16 Impacts on Forests Growing populations in developing regions urbanization & construction deforestation (for agriculture & subsistence use) + wood use for building & packaging Growing resource scarcity & ecological degradation conflicting demands for forests demand for wood resources & ecological reserves demand for env. services (e.g. carbon sequestration) demand for forest land conversion for food, land, etc. 16

17 Five Forces on Forest Land (Nilsson 2011) These 5 forces pressuring forest land use: Food (e.g. palm oil, soy beans) Fodder (e.g. cattle and sheep grazing, wildlife) Fuel (e.g. subsistence use, bioenergy, and biofuels) Fibre (e.g. wood to replace steel & concrete) Feedstock to replace nonrenewables (e.g. bioplastics, bio chemicals, & bio materials) 17

18 UPM Biofore all wood car (2014) buildings.jpg 18

19 Future Forests humans expectations of what forests provide will exceed the ability of the forest, as currently managed, to supply Multi functional demands on new plantations Erosion of single purpose forests (e.g. carbon offsets + wood supply + water filtration + park all in one forest) Continuing shift to equatorial forest plantations More rapid development of materials & products from forests to replace nonrenewables 19

20 Where will this wood come from? NA and EU Graphic Paper Production millions of tonnes N. & W. Europe USA & Canada first public access to internet 20

21 The urban forest: Global recovered paper 250 millions of tonnes Source: FAO 21

22 Forests can be a Treasure Chest of solutions or a Pandora s Box of competing single issues compounding our social, environmental and economic problems depending on changing management philosophies and actions. 22