Biomass Use in the Developing World Dr. David G. Victor

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1 Biomass Use in the Developing World Dr. David G. Victor Program on Energy and Sustainable Development Stanford University, U.S.

2 100% 80% % Biomass in Primary Energy 60% 40% 20% US World 0% Years Figure 1. Share of Biomass in Primary Energy Mix for the US ( ) and for World ( ). Source: IIASA (1998), UN, EIA (2002)

3 100.00% % Biomass in Primary Energy 10.00% 1.00% 0.10% 0.01% Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Fuelwood 0.00% GDP per capita Figure 2. USA: Primary Energy Mix versus GDP per capita, Source: IIASA (1998), EIA (2002), BEA (2002)

4 Biomass (Mtoe) Population (10e6) Figure 3. USA: Biomass energy consumption versus population, Source: IIASA (1998), EIA (2002), BEA (2002)

5 100% 100% % Commercial Energy in Primary Energy 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1800 % Commercial Energy vs. % Urban Population % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% % Rural/Urban population % Biomass vs. % Rural Population 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% % Biomass in Primary Energy Figure 4. USA: Share of Biomass in Primary Energy versus Share of Rural Population and Share of Commercial Energy in Primary Energy versus Share of Urban Population, Sources: IIASA (1998), CENSUS (2002) Note: Commercial Energy is included coal, oil, gas, hydro and nuclear.

6 Biomass per capita (toe/cap) GDP per capita ('90 US$) Figure 5. USA: biomass per capita consumption versus GDP per capita, Data source: IIASA (1998), EIA (2002)

7 Energy Intensity (toe/'90us$) Primary Energy Intensity 0.55 Biomass Energy Intensity GDP per capita ('90 US$) Figure 6. Primary Energy Intensities of GDP and Biomass Intensities of GDP, USA, Source: IIASA (1998), EIA (2002)

8 Table traditional biomass data for various countries and from different sources Fuelwood consumption (10e3 cum) Fuelwood consumption (PJ) Countries CEERD/AIT FAO UN CEERD/AIT FAO UN Bangladesh 30,620 5, Bhutan 1,334 1, Cambodia 8,503 6,484 6, India 352, , ,182 3,405 2,628 2,603 Laos 4,381 4, Myanmar 19,931 20, Nepal 16,736 19,692 18, Sri Lanka 8,809 9, Thailand 54,218 36,188 68, China 334, , ,059 3,233 1,992 1,974 Share of fuelwood energy Share of biomass energy Countries in total energy (%) in total energy (%) CEERD/AIT FAO UN CEERD/AIT FAO UN Bangladesh Bhutan Cambodia India Laos Myanmar Nepal Sri Lanka Thailand China

9 100% Nepal Bhutan Laos Cambodia Sri Lanka Vietnam Indonesia % Fuelwood in energy total 10% Bangladesh Pakistan India China Maldives Philippines Thailand Malaysia 1% GNP PPP per capita Figure 7. Share of fuelwood versus GNP (PPP) per capita in Source: UN, WB (2002).

10 1.0 %Fuelwood&Charcoal in Primary Energy 0.1 China India South Africa Thailand Argentina Brazil Bangladesh GDP per capita ('95US$) Figure 8. Share of traditional biomass in primary energy consumption versus GDP per capita, Source: FAO (2002), WB (2002), BP (2002).

11 Table 2. Biomass consumption by different fuels (%).

12 100 Sri Lanka Nepal Maynmar Laos Cambodia Bhutan Viet Nam % Share of Fuelwood in Energy Consumption 10 Bangladesh China India Thailand Philippines Indonesia Malaysia % Share of Forest Land Area Figure 9. Share of fuelwood versus share of forest area in Source: UN, FAO (2002)

13 100% Laos Nepal Cambodia Vietnam Bhutan Sri Lanka Bangladesh % Biomass in energy total Philippines Pakistan Indonesia China India Maldives Thailand Malays 10% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% % Rural population Figure 10. Share of traditional biomass in energy consumption versus share of rural population, for various countries, Source: RWEDP (2002), WB (2002)

14 1.0 %Fuelwood&Charcoal in Primary Energy 0.1 China India South Africa Thailand Argentina Bangladesh Brazil % Industry of GDP Figure 11. Share of fuelwood and charcoal in primary energy consumption versus share of industry in GDP. Source: FAO (2002), WB (2002)

15 100 Biomass per capita 10 Nepal Cambodia Bhutan Laos Pakistan Sri Lanka India China Vietnam Philippines Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Bangladesh Maldives GDP per capita Figure 12. Biomass per capita versus GDP per capita in Source: RWEDP (2002), WB (2002)

16 10000 India China Biomass (PJ) Laos Bhutan Pakistan Vietnam Indonesia Thailand Bangladesh Nepal Philippines Sri Lanka Malaysia Cambodia 1 Maldives ,000 10, ,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 Population (10e3) Figure 13. Biomass consumption versus population for various countries in Data source: FAO (2002), UN

17 100 China Fuelwood & Charcoal / GDP 10 1 India Nepal South Africa Sri Lanka Thailand Kenya Nigeria Angola Benin Central African Republic Mexico Bangladesh Brazil GDP/cap Figure 14. Biomass intensity of GDP versus GDP per capita in Source: FAO (2002), WB (2002)

18 Table 3. Average Annual Growth Rates of GDP per capita and Biomass Intensity and Results of Nonlinear Regression Analysis. Annual Average Growth rates Nonlinear Regression Analysis Results (observed) GDP per cap Biomass Intensity R^2 A B Angola -1.6% 1.2% Bangladesh 1.8% -3.0% Benin 0.8% -3.4% Brazil 3.2% -4.0% Central African Republi -1.1% -0.9% China 8.3% -7.8% India 3.2% -3.5% Kenya 2.1% -3.2% Mexico 2.9% -4.4% Nepal 1.9% -3.4% Nigeria 0.5% -2.3% South Africa 1.2% 5.5% Sri Lanka 3.9% -5.6% Thailand 6.3% -8.3% Note: R^2 - R-square (the proportion of variation in the dependent variable explained by the regression model) A - a scale coefficient that reflects the biomass and GDP ratio of the first observation B - the progress ratio

19 Research Topics 1. Long time series Countries other than USA Comparisons with development patterns in developing countries 2. Regression models Attempt to explain fuel choice Income Fuel availability Urbanization Etc.