Changing Climate, Changing Forests The Impacts of Climate Change on Forests of the Northeastern United States and Eastern Canada

Transcription

1 Changing Climate, Changing Forests The Impacts of Climate Change on Forests of the Northeastern United States and Eastern Canada Lindsey Rustad, US Forest Service NE March 26, 2014 Lindsey Rustad, US Forest Service NE March 26, 2014 Northern Forest Vulnerability to Climate Change: Insights, Opportunities and Solutions Lindsey Rustad, US Forest Service NE March 26, 2014 Changing Climate, Changing Forests Other Vulnerability Assessments The USDA Northeast Climate Hub Lindsey Rustad, US Forest Service NE March 26,

2 Changing Climate, Changing Forests The Impacts of Climate Change on Forests of the Northeastern US and Eastern Canada Lindsey Rustad, Ph.D. USDA Forest Service Changing Climate, Changing Forests The Impacts of Climate Change on Forests of the Northeastern US and Eastern Canada 2

3 Observed: +1.4 F (0.8 o C) temperature + 9% precipitation More intense precipitation Longer growing seasons Less snow and ice Climate 3

4 Observed: +1.4 F (0.8 o C) temperature + 9% precipitation More intense precipitation Longer growing seasons Less snow and ice Projected: to 9.5 F (2.9 to 5.3 o C) temperature + 7 to 14% precipitation Longer growing seasons (9-43 days) Climate Decrease or elimination of snowpack NECIA 2007 Observed: River and Stream Hydrology Increases in average stream flow Earlier spring high flows Higher flood flows Projected: Continuation of observed trends Decreases in summer & fall stream flows 4

5 Forest composition shifts in response to slowly changing climate Suitable habitat to move up and north Species have trouble keeping pace Reproduction Dispersal Migration Northeast Forests Northeast Forests In the future, expect winners and losers for species Expected Winners Black Oak White Oak Shortleaf Pine Loblolly Pine Bitternut Hickory Expected Losers Red Spruce Balsam Fir Sugar Maple White Birch Northern White Cedar Winner: Oak-Hickory Winner: Loblolly Pine Loser: Spruce-Fir Loser: NorthernHardwood 5

6 Northeast Forests In the future, expect winners and losers for forest types Expected Winners Black Oak White Oak Shortleaf Pine Loblolly Pine Bitternut Hickory Expected Losers Red Spruce Balsam Fir Sugar Maple White Birch Northern White Cedar Forest Productivity Increased productivity due to: Warmer temperatures Longer growing seasons CO 2 fertilization N Fertilization 6

7 Forest Productivity Decreased productivity due to: Extreme climatic events Nuisance Species Acid Rain Nitrogen Saturation Ozone Observed Changes: Tree Declines Table 4: Tree Decline and Associated Climate Factors Species Decline History Role of Climate Other factors References Birch Widespread declines Maps of birch decline first reported in 1944 areas coincide with areas of experiencing extended winter thaw cycles None cited Balch 1944 Bourque et al Braathe 1995 Maple 26 widespread decline episodes reported between 1912 and 1986 Prolonged thaw freeze events and associated fine root damage have been implicated in sugar maple decline Insect and disease Changes in soil nutrients Millers et al 1989 Bertrand et al Decker et al Fitzhugh et al Oak Large areas of oak mortality recorded in New England and the Appalachian Mts in the early 1900s Drought stresses have Insect been reported as outbreak important initiating factors in oak decline. Secondary pathogens Millers et al Ash White ash dieback noted in across the northeast since the 1920s Drought and freezing damage have been identified as inciting factors, with drought playing a particularly important role Phytoplasmal disease Asian beetle, emerald ash borer Millers et al Poland and McCullough 2006 Red Spruce Widespread decline through the Northeast from the 1960s, increasing over the last few decades Reduced cold tolerance leads to winter injury which is intensified by freeze thaw events, rapid rates of thaw and subsequent exposure to refreezing Acid deposition Weather anomalies Friedland et al Johnson 1992 Schaberg and DeHayes 2000 Bourque et al

8 Observed Changes: Tree Declines Table 4: Tree Decline and Associated Climate Factors Species Birch Decline History (spp.): Role of Climate extended Other factors References Birch Widespread declines Maps of birch decline None cited Balch 1944 first reported 1944 areas coincide with areas winter of thaws experiencing extended Bourque et al winter thaw cycles Braathe 1995 Maple 26 widespread Prolonged thaw freeze Insect and Millers et al 1989 decline episodes events and associated fine disease Bertrand et al Sugar Maple: reported between root damage have been 1912 and 1986 implicated in sugar maple Decker et al decline Changes Fitzhugh et al extended winter soil nutrients Oak Large areas of oak Drought stresses have Insect Millers et al mortality recorded been reported as outbreak thaws in New England and important initiating factors the Appalachian Mts in oak decline. in the early 1900s Secondary pathogens Red Spruce: late Ash White ash dieback Drought and freezing Phytoplasmal Millers et al noted in across the damage have been disease northeast since the identified as inciting Poland and freeze, freeze thaw, 1920s factors, with drought McCullough 2006 playing a particularly Asian beetle, important role emerald ash reduced cold tolerance borer Red Widespread decline Reduced cold tolerance Acid Friedland et al Spruce through the leads to winter injury deposition Northeast from the which is intensified by Johnson 1992 Oak 1960s, increasing (spp.): freeze thaw events, drought rapid Schaberg and over the last few rates of thaw and Weather DeHayes 2000 decades subsequent exposure to anomalies refreezing Bourque et al Ash: drought Pests, Pathogens, and Invasive Species Leading cause of disturbance in forest ecosystems. Likely to become more abundant, widespread, and virulent under climate change. Asian Longhorn Beetle Armillaria Butt Rot Orienta Bittersweet 8

9 Pests, Pathogens, and Invasive Species Leading cause of disturbance in forest ecosystems. Likely to become more abundant, widespread, and virulent under climate change. Range is often limited by low temperature extremes Range is limited by min. temp (> 28.8 degrees C) Extreme Example: Mountain Pine Beetle 9

10 Native Wildlife Climate directly and indirectly affects all wildlife. Birds Timing of migration and breeding has advanced Ranges are expanding, primarily northward Expect winners and losers Common loon 76 93% decline Examples of Winners Pileated Woodpecker Examples of Losers Common Loon Pileated woodpecker 15 50% increase Northern Cardinal Great Horned Owl Yellow Throated Warbler Whipperwill White throated Sparrow Ruffed Grouse Black Burnian Warbler Bicknell s Thrush Ovenbird 7 45% decline Common loon 76 93% decline Northern Cardinal 20 33% increase Great horned Owl 18 > 200% increase Yellow Throated Warbler >200% increase White throated Sparrow 37 79% decline Black Burnian Warbler 40 74% decline Ruffed Grouse 38 58% decline 10

11 High Elevation Birds Forest Biogeochemistry 11

12 Closing Statements on Science The climate of the NE has become warmer and wetter. Climate models suggest that the climate of the NE will become warmer, wetter, and drier. The hydrology of the region has changed, is changing and is projected to continue to change. These changes in climate and hydrology will have profound and quantifiable impacts on the productivity, species composition and biogeochemistry of northern forests. Implications for Policy: Mitigation Prevent Forest Loss Enhance Carbon Storage in Managed Forests Replace Fossil Fuel with Smart Biomass 12

13 Implications for Policy: Adaptation Increase Protected Areas and Refuges Conserve Stepping Stones and Corridors Reduce Other Stresses on Forests Concluding Remarks The science of climate change is well advanced. Strategies are available to adapt to, and take advantage of, climate change. Need for rapid information exchange. Need to be proactive, rather than reactive to future changes. 13

14 Other Assessments International IPCC Assessment Reports (AR5) Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (2012) National US National Climate Change Assessment 2014 Effects of Climate Variability an Change on Forest Ecosystems: A Comprehensive Science Sythesis for the US Forest Sector. Climate Change and Agriculture: Effects and Adaptation Regional State Assessments Changing Climate, Changing Forests Harvard Forest Wildland and Woodlands Manomet - Series Other Assessments International IPCC Assessment Reports (AR5) Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (2012) National US National Climate Change Assessment 2014 Effects of Climate Variability and Change on Forest Ecosystems: A Comprehensive Science Sythesis for the US Forest Sector. Climate Change and Agriculture: Effects and Adaptation Regional State Assessments Changing Climate, Changing Forests Harvard Forest Wildland and Woodlands Manomet - Series 14

15 Other Assessments International IPCC Assessment Reports (AR5) Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (2012) National US National Climate Change Assessment 2014 Effects of Climate Variability an Change on Forest Ecosystems: A Comprehensive Science Sythesis for the US Forest Sector. Climate Change and Agriculture: Effects and Adaptation Regional State Assessments Changing Climate, Changing Forests Harvard Forest Wildland and Woodlands Manomet - Series USDA Regional Hubs for Risk Adaptation and Mitigation to Climate Change 15

16 What is the Vision for the Hubs? To help maintain and strengthen agricultural production and natural resources under increasing climate variability and environmental change What is the Mission of the Hubs? To develop and deliver sciencebased, region-specific information and technologies to agricultural and natural resource managers that enable climate-informed decisionmaking and provide assistance to enable land managers to implement those decisions. 16

17 What Will the Hubs Do? Technical and Program Support Assessments and Forecasts Outreach and Education Who s Involved in the NE Hub? Forest Service, Durham, NH Dave Hollinger, Director (Forest carbon cycle) Lindsey Rustad, Co-Director (Climate change and forests) Agricultural Research Service, Ithaca, NY Donna Gibson, Co-Director (Biological control) Leon Kochian, Co-Director (Genetic mechanisms of adaptation) Agricultural Research Service, State College, PA Peter Kleinman, Co-Director (Nutrient management) Howard Skinner, Co-Director (Pasture GHG emissions) Natural Resources Conservation Service, Greensboro, NC Darren Hickman, Co-Director (Director, East National Tech Sup) 17

18 Northern Forest Vulnerability to Climate Change: Insights, Opportunities and Solutions Lindsey Rustad, US Forest Service NE March 26, 2014 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! Lindsey Rustad, US Forest Service NE March 26,