THE FOREST SECTOR THE DRIVER OF CIRCULAR AND BIO-ECONOMIES

Transcription

1 THE FOREST SECTOR THE DRIVER OF CIRCULAR AND BIO-ECONOMIES Sten B. Nilsson CEO, Forest Sector Insights AB, Sweden 4 th HIGH-LEVEL CONFERENCE OF THE EUROPEAN INNOVATION PARTNERSHIP ON RAW MATERIALS Session: Competitiveness and Innovation Brussels, December 1, 2016 Source: Wallup.net

2 FORESTS Forests are RENEWABLE and INFINITE resources through sustainable management They are living organisms have variable characteristics They are subject to natural disturbances They have half- times Their collection, storage, and processing may be logistically challenging They fulfill many ecosystem- and social-services at different levels in the society, in addition to supply of raw materials

3 EU-28 FORESTS Forest and wooded land Managed forests Net annual increment managed forests Fellings Removal of industrial and fuelwood Co-products and recovery of wood fibers 181 million ha 110 million ha 690 million m 3 /yr 538 million m 3 /yr 425 million m 3 /yr 210 million m 3 /yr Based on: UN (2015). Forests in the ECE Region Trends and challenges in achieving the global objectives on forests.

4 SYSTEMS PERSPECTIVE FOREST SECTOR 50-70% of net carbon balance* Forest growth rate Source: Kurz, WA, et al., *Lundmark, T, et al., 2016.

5 CO 2 BALANCE EU-28 FORESTS Currently Annual increment 435 mill. tons/yr 10% of EU emissions Harvested wood impacts 44 mill. tons/year 1% EU emissions Bio-energy replacing fossil fuels 270 mill. tons/yr 2% EU emissions Material substitution 90 mill. tons/yr 6% EU emissions TOTAL 839 mill. tons/yr 19% EU emissions 2050 Alternative management and policies 170 mill. tons/yr Abandoned farmland 70 mill. tons/year Bio-energy replacing fossil fuels 180 mill. tons/yr Material substitution? TOTAL 1259 mill. tons/yr (+50%) Based on: Nabuurs et al. (2015). A new role for forests and the forest sector in the EU post-2020 climate targets. In: From Science to Policy 2, EFI, Finland.

6 ACCOUNTING RULES LULUCFs are currently not allowed in the commitment targets of EU member states Once LULUCFs are part of EU target, they can be accounted for earliest in 2022 and with full accounting Inclusion of harvested wood products, no caps, substitution, producer approach UNFCCC includes HWP but no agreement on consumer or producer approach Kyoto-Protocol, HWP are included based on producer approach We must have consistent international accounting systems which have to be linked to Emission Trading Systems in order to compensate forest owners for carbon management Transfers between ETS, ESD (effort sharing decision) and LULUCF must be possible in the future

7 OLD PART OF SKELLEFTEÅ Source: Magnus Silfverhielm, Linnéuniversitetet, AIX Arkitekter AB, 2016.

8 Source: Pirmin Jung Ingenieure AG, HIGH RISE BUILDINGS

9 Source: Pirmin Jung Ingenieure AG, TIMBER SKYSCRAPERS

10 COPPER HILL, ÅRE, SWEDEN Source: Magnus Silfverhielm, Linnéuniversitetet, AIX Arkitekter AB, 2016.

11 NEW INDUSTRIAL BUILDING SYSTEMS Source: Mikael Lindberg, Stora Enso, 2016

12 METROPOL PARASOL SEVILLA, SPAIN Source: Roberto Crocetti, Lund University, Sweden.

13 CO 2 EMISSIONS IN TONS PER BUILDING COMPONENT CLT Source: Charlotta Szczepanowski, Riksbyggen, CONCRETE

14 GREEN IS NOT ENOUGH Replacing finite resources Construction time 25-40% of conventional construction time Cost efficient Very low construction tolerances +/- 3 mm Low weight makes foundation work easier Limited waste Pleasant and sound living environments Wood must compete within a material neutral, performance-based policy framework About 65% of the construction sector in the EU is retro-fitting

15 EINSTEIN WAS IN THE FOREFRONT Source: Magnus Silfverhielm, Linné University, AIX Arkitekter AB, 2016.

16 WHY AREN T ALL AS SMART AS EINSTEIN? HOUSING STARTS Source: Delton Alderman, UNECE/FAO Forest Products Annual Market Review, Well-known facts for years Education of decision makers, politicians and public Hybrid products of wood concrete, steel, etc. The lumber industry must transform to a construction industry The lumber industry must become active in the urban planning of the future Incentives for wood construction

17 EU HOUSING Source: Adam Matthews, EU BIM Task Group, 24 June million of the EU population spend 40%+ of disposable income on housing 123 million of the EU population are at risk of poverty and social exclusion About 85 million of the EU population living in houses causing health problems 17% of the EU population are living in overcrowded conditions, 5% suffer severe housing deprivation About 45% of age-group live at hotel Mama About 42% of the housing units are pre Shortage of social housing as well as in metropolitan areas

18 WHY AREN T ALL AS SMART AS EINSTEIN? HOUSING STARTS Source: Delton Alderman, UNECE/FAO Forest Products Annual Market Review, Well-known facts for years Education of decision makers, politicians and public Hybrid products of wood concrete, steel, etc. The lumber industry must transform to a construction industry The lumber industry must become active in the urban planning of the future Incentives for wood construction

19 OPPORTUNITIES

20 3D PRINTING

21 CELLUOSE FIBERS AND 3D PRINTING Source: Karen Eng, ideas.ted.com, Feb. 16, 2016.

22 NEW CELLULOSE-BASED PRODUCTS Link circular- and bio-developments with the 4 th industrial revolution Many products with small markets and applications in new markets Less dependent on economy of scale new industrial structure Partnerships outside the conventional forest competences integration of sectors Brand new business models Research and innovation intensive Need for sustainable capitalists

23 HOW MUCH WOODY BIOMASS RAW MATERIAL DO WE NEED IN THE FUTURE It remains to be seen Conventional industry and adopted bio-energy policies generate a gap of m 3 in 2020 How is forest bio-energy, and climate viewed in EU post 2020 policies? Declining consumption and structural change in the conventional forest industry How big will modern wooden construction technology be? How much will the new forest-based circular- and bioeconomy products impact demand? Political Economy

24 EU ACTIONS Urgent need to make assessments of the impacts of ongoing changes on the future demand and supply in the EU on forest biomass in order to set relevant policies The assessments require different approaches for forest-rich versus forest-poor regions EU must establish flagship/mission programs on the European forest sector transformation to circular- bio-economies

25 EU MUST TAKE RESPONSIBILITY AND DRIVE HOME THE NEEDED TRANSITION Political re-orientation, fundamentally changed strategic thinking, integrated policy-making/political economy Source: Magnus Silfverhielm, Linnéuniversitetet, AIX Arkitekter AB, 2016.

26 THANK YOU! Sten B. Nilsson CEO, Forest Sector Insights AB Telephone: Cell: Skype: stenbnilsson