Simulating the Future Forested Landscapes of the Oregon Coast

Transcription

1 Simulating the Future Forested Landscapes of the Oregon Coast K. Norman Johnson Oregon State University June 10, 2002

2 Technical Assistance Jonathan Brooks, GIS

3 Technical Assistance Marie Lennette, Landscape Modeling Jonathan Thompson, Analysis Justin Goodwin, Analysis

4 Topics 1. Types of disturbances and actions considered. 2. Future forested landscapes and their characteristics under current policy. 3. Future forested landscapes under alternative policies.

5 Types of Disturbance & Actions Modeled 1. Small gap (wind, disease, other) 2. Private land development 3. Forest management, especially commercial thinning and clearcutting

6 Small Gap Disturbance Disturbance Rate Per Decade Riparian 0.2% Upland 0.1% Average patch size: 1/2 acre

7 Land Development

8 Projected Population in Western Oregon 6 Millions Source: Center for Population and Research (1995 to 2010), Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment database ( ), and by extrapolation (2050 to 2095).

9 Land Development Present 2096 PUBLIC & TRIBAL LANDS PRIVATE LANDS Urban Forest Urban Non-Forest Low-Density Residential Forest Low-Density Residential Non-Forest Wildland forest Non-Forest

10 Simulated Land Use on Private Wildland Forest Over the Next 100 Years Forest Industry - Losses to Urban & Rural Resid. Acres Forest Industry - Remaining Wildland Forest Non-Industrial Private - Losses to Urban & Rural Resid. Non-Industrial Private - Remaining Wildland Forest Years

11 Megasheds North NorthEast MidWest MidEast South Umpqua

12 Loss of Wildland Forest on Non-Industrial Private Land Over the Next 100 Years SOUTH UMP MEAST Rural Resid. MWEST Urban NEAST NORTH 0 50, , , , ,000 Acres

13 Land Development Development of Oregon s Coast Range over the next 100 years should leave intact a large majority of coastal forests. Still, significant losses are projected for private lands around Portland and in Coastal valleys.

14 Land Development Greatest unknown: potential speckling of homes through remaining wildland forest, and how that will affect commercial forestry

15 Forest Management Management emphases considered: Northwest Plan State plan Tribal and county plans Forest Practice Rules - riparian areas and wildlife leave trees

16 Ownership Types 1996

17 Management Emphasis 2001 Non-forest No harvest Ecological objectives Ecol. obj. (primary) Timber prod. obj. (secondary) Timber prod. under envir. consts. Timber prod. & other obj. under envir. consts. Complex mixture of timber & ecol. obj.

18 Riparian Management Areas on Private Land

19 Forest Industry Management Regenerated Stand Management Intensities Intensity Actions % High 1 Plant, PCT, fert 15 2 Plant, PCT 55 3 Plant 28 4 Natural regen, thin 1 Low 5 Natural regen 1

20 Forest Industry Management Goal of simulation: Find a sustainable harvest level while moving to a year rotation.

21 Industry Average Harvest Ages Base Policy 90 Age (years) MEA MWE NEA NOR SOU UMP Time Periods (5 years)

22 NIPF Management Regenerated Stand Management Intensities Intensity Actions % High 1 Plant, PCT, fert 2 Plant, PCT 3 Plant Natural regen, thin Low 5 Natural regen

23 Harvest Probabilities for NIPF Lands Probability (Over 5 Years) CLearcut Partial Cut Age (years) Source: Lettman and Cambell (1997)

24 State Management Maximize non-declining yield subject to: Structural stand constraints Regeneration type: 10% Closed canopy type: 15% Understory type: 25% Layered type: 25% Older forest type: 25% Interior habitat patches

25 Federal Management Matrix volume targets LSR thinning to reduce density in conifer plantations

26 Annual Harvest Volume for Oregon Coast Range by Owner, Harvest Volume (MMMBF) Federal State Non-Industrial Private Industrial Forest

27 Annual Harvest Volume by Owner Base Policy Harvest Volume (MMBF) FED State NIPF IND Time Periods (5 years)

28 Annual Industry Harvest Volume by Megashed Base Policy MMBF/YR Time Periods (5 years) MEA MWE NEA NOR SOU UMP

29 Annual Harvest Volume (All Owners) Base Policy MBF/YR Time Periods (5 Years) Thinning Clearcut

30 First Decade Harvest Acres Base Policy Acres Industry NIPF State Federal Land Owner Thinning Clearcut First Decade Harvest Volume Base Policy Harvest Volume (MMBF) Industry NIPF State Federal Land Owner Thinning Clearcut

31 Annual Federal Harvest Volume Base Policy MMBF/YR Time Periods (5 years) Thinning Clearcut

32 Annual Federal Harvest Acres Base Policy Acres Time Periods (5 years) Thinning Clearcut

33 Vegetation on Forested Lands Initial (1996) Millions of Acres Open Rem Broad S C/M M C/M Lg C/M VL C/M Period 20 (2096) Millions of Acres Open Rem Broad S C/M M C/M Lg C/M VL C/M

34 Projected Change in Vegetation on Forested Lands Under Current (Base) Policy, Oregon Coast Range Open Forest 1.8 Remnants Millions of Acres Broadleaf Small Mixed/Conifer Medium Mixed/Conifer Large Mixed/Conifer 0.0 Initial (1996) Period 10 (2046) Period 20 (2096) Very Large Mixed/Conifer

35 Vegetation on Federal Forested Lands Initial (1996) Millions of Acres Open Rem Broad S C/M M C/M Lg C/M VL C/M Period 20 (2096) Millions of Acres Open Rem Broad S C/M M C/M Lg C/M VL C/M

36 Vegetation on State Forested Lands Initial (1996) 400 Thousands of Acres Open Rem Broad S C/M M C/M Lg C/M VL C/M Period 20 (2096) Thousands of Acres Open Rem Broad S C/M M C/M Lg C/M VL C/M

37 Vegetation on Industrial Forested Lands Initial (1996) Millions of Acres Open Rem Broad S C/M M C/M Lg C/M VL C/M Period 20 (2096) Millions of Acres Open Rem Broad S C/M M C/M Lg C/M VL C/M

38 Vegetation on NIPF Forested Lands Initial (1996) Thousands of Acres Open Rem Broad S C/M M C/M Lg C/M VL C/M Period 20 (2096) Thousands of Acres Open Rem Broad S C/M M C/M Lg C/M VL C/M

39 Vegetation Classes 1996 Initial Period Base Policy Not Simulated Open Forest Broadleaf Mixed Small Mixed Medium Mixed Large Mixed Very Large Conifer Small Conifer Medium Conifer Large Conifer Very Large Mixed Very Small Conifer Very Small Remnants

40 Vegetation Classes 2046 Projected Base Policy Not Simulated Open Forest Broadleaf Mixed Small Mixed Medium Mixed Large Mixed Very Large Conifer Small Conifer Medium Conifer Large Conifer Very Large Mixed Very Small Conifer Very Small Remnants

41 Vegetation Classes 2096 Projected Base Policy Not Simulated Open Forest Broadleaf Mixed Small Mixed Medium Mixed Large Mixed Very Large Conifer Small Conifer Medium Conifer Large Conifer Very Large Mixed Very Small Conifer Very Small Remnants

42 Vegetation Classes 1996 Initial Period Base Policy Not Simulated Open Forest Broadleaf Mixed Small Mixed Medium Mixed Large Mixed Very Large Conifer Small Conifer Medium Conifer Large Conifer Very Large Mixed Very Small Conifer Very Small Remnants

43 Vegetation Classes 2046 Projected Base Policy Not Simulated Open Forest Broadleaf Mixed Small Mixed Medium Mixed Large Mixed Very Large Conifer Small Conifer Medium Conifer Large Conifer Very Large Mixed Very Small Conifer Very Small Remnants

44 Vegetation Classes 2096 Projected Base Policy Not Simulated Open Forest Broadleaf Mixed Small Mixed Medium Mixed Large Mixed Very Large Conifer Small Conifer Medium Conifer Large Conifer Very Large Mixed Very Small Conifer Very Small Remnants

45 Vegetation Classes 1996 Initial Period Base Policy Not Simulated Open Forest Broadleaf Mixed Small Mixed Medium Mixed Large Mixed Very Large Conifer Small Conifer Medium Conifer Large Conifer Very Large Mixed Very Small Conifer Very Small Remnants

46 Vegetation Classes 2046 Projected Base Policy Not Simulated Open Forest Broadleaf Mixed Small Mixed Medium Mixed Large Mixed Very Large Conifer Small Conifer Medium Conifer Large Conifer Very Large Mixed Very Small Conifer Very Small Remnants

47 Vegetation Classes 2096 Projected Base Policy Not Simulated Open Forest Broadleaf Mixed Small Mixed Medium Mixed Large Mixed Very Large Conifer Small Conifer Medium Conifer Large Conifer Very Large Mixed Very Small Conifer Very Small Remnants

48 Vegetation Classes 2096 Projected Not Simulated Open Forest Broadleaf Mixed Small Mixed Medium Mixed Large Mixed Very Large Conifer Small Conifer Medium Conifer Large Conifer Very Large Mixed Very Small Conifer Very Small Remnants Base Policy No Federal Thinning

49 Comparison of Projected Vegetation on Federal Forested Lands Under Two Alternatives Period 20 (2096), Mid-Coast 350 Thousands of Acres Base Policy No Thinning Policy Open Forest Remnants Broadleaf Small Conifer/Mixed Medium Conifer/Mixed Large Conifer/Mixed Very Large Conifer/Mixed

50 Vegetation Classes 2096 Projected Not Simulated Open Forest Broadleaf Mixed Small Mixed Medium Mixed Large Mixed Very Large Conifer Small Conifer Medium Conifer Large Conifer Very Large Mixed Very Small Conifer Very Small Remnants Base Policy Green Tree Retention

51 Vegetation Classes 2096 Projected Not Simulated Open Forest Broadleaf Mixed Small Mixed Medium Mixed Large Mixed Very Large Conifer Small Conifer Medium Conifer Large Conifer Very Large Mixed Very Small Conifer Very Small Remnants Base Policy Big Clearcuts