Seed Transfer Guidelines in a Changing Climate

Transcription

1 Seed Transfer Guidelines in a Changing Climate Volume 2: Black Spruce ConForGen Presentation April 8, 2015 Dennis G. Joyce, Ph.D. Superior Genet. Res. Mgt. Serv. 449 Walls Rd. Sault Ste. Marie, ON P6A 6K4 dennis.joyce@vianet.ca

2 IPCC Summary for Policy Makers 2007 Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean Temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level. Keeling Curve Pre-industrial atmospheric CO 2 concentration was about 280 ppm. May 2013 atmospheric CO 2 concentration first reached 400 ppm. The global mean annual temperature has climbed by 0.6 o C over the last 30 years

3 2014 is the hottest year on record Observed Climate Change

4 Perception of Climate Change James Hansen, Makiko Sato, and Reto Ruedy 2012 There has already been a shift of 1 standard deviation. + Increase in summer variability Summer Winter Frequency 1σ=34.1% 2σ=13.6% 3σ=0.01%

5 We know where the heat is going As the ocean warms (and acidifies) it s capacity to absorb CO2 goes down.

6 IPCC Projections 1st Generation: First IPCC Assessment Report (1995) 2 nd Generation: IS92 for the IPCC Second Assessment Report (1995) 3rd Generation: SRES (Special Report on Emissions) - 3 rd IPCC Assessment Report (2001) - 4 th assessment Report (2007) 4th Generation: RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathway) 5th IPCC Assessment Report (2014)

7 IPCC Projections 5 th Assessment: Summary for Policy Makers 2014 Baseline scenarios scenarios without explicit additional efforts to constrain emissions. Exceed 450 ppm by 2030 Between 750 and 1300 ppm by RCP6.0 : ppm by 2100 Climate models are essential and valuable tools. Despite much criticism, they have made many predictions whose chief criticism should be that they are too conservative.

8 Pleistocene Ice Age Pleistocene Ice Age Began Began 40 million years ago with the growth of an ice sheet in Antarctica. It intensified 3 million years ago With the spread of ice sheets In the Northern Hemisphere Since then, ice sheets advance and retreat on 40,000- and 100,000-year time scales. You are here.

9 Pleistocene Ice Age 55 million years ago... Atmospheric CO 2 reached 2000 ppm 550 PPM 280 ppm 200 ppm

10 North American Biomes The velocity of global temperature change is highest in flat landscapes at high latitudes. (Loarie et al. 2009) Rehfeldt et al Ecol. Appl. (22)1: Contemporary

11 There is an Elephant in the Room As the century unfolds, the forest management focus will need to shift toward facilitated change for both ecological and economic reasons. Overwhelming odds. Little chance of success. What are we waiting for? An Elephant Named Assisted Migration Gimli the dwarf What, where, when, how & who?

12 Ecological Implications of Climate Change & Forest Management Recommendations Extirpation Reproductive Failure Forest Decline Extirpation Failure to Colonize Trailing Edge: The southern limits of species natural ranges should be expected to be recede over the course of the twenty first century. Adaptation: The capacity for in-situ adaptation will be overwhelmed by the speed of climatic change. Leading Edge: Migration rates since the last glacial maximum were likely less than 100 m per year (Aitken et. al. 2008), or just a small fraction of the expected rate of shifting climatic niches. Species Replacement Seed Transfer Guidelines

13 North American Climate Model (2006 to 2009 ish) 1 km grid resolution mapping Dr. Jerry Rehfeldt Mean Annual Temperature

14 Ecological Impacts of Climate Change N. American (spline) climate model 1 km grid resolution mapping Step 1 Species Climate Niche Modeling Presence and absence data for target species Machine Learning Classification Trees Projected shifts in Climate surfaces Step 2 Ecological Genetic Modelling Provenance test data Stepwise regression Projected shifts in Climate surfaces

15 Black Spruce Climatic Niche Model Data: Over 201,000 (ecological and inventory) ground plots 52,375 plots documented to contain black spruce 148, 500+ plots without black spruce Methods: Follows eastern white pine paper (Joyce & Rehfeldt, 2013 For. Ecol. & Mgt. 295: ) based on presence vs. absence data North American-wide spline-based climate model (1-km grid) 5 Bootstrap samples of parental data set Random Forest (machine learning) 100 classification trees for each bootstrap sample

16 5 Bootstrap Samples - 210,000 plots SAMPLE 10 % 100 Classification Trees 33% 67% Absent Present*2 40 % 50 % No No Reserved to estimate classification error rate Yes No 34 Candidate Climatic Variables Random Sample of Climatic Variables VOTES 100 trees / sample 5 samples = 500 Votes

17 Black Spruce Bio-Climate Profile Sample N = 210,843 N = 210,722 N = 210,824 N = 210,455 N = 210,533 Forest class.error 0 90,051 16, , , Forest class.error 0 89,989 15, , Forest class.error 0 89,988 16, , Forest class.error 0 89,838 15, , , Forest class.error 0 89,750 16, , , Mean Misclassification Error = 8.1% 15.1% Commission 1.6% Omission

18 Black Spruce Bio-climate Profile Regression Tree 8-Variable Model (in order of Importance) 1. Mapmtcm = Mean Annual Pecip. / Mean Temp. Coldest Month Moisture / Temperature Interactions Temperature 2. Tdiff = Mean Temp. Warmest Month Mean Temp. Coldest Month 3. gspdd5 = (Growing Season Precip *Degree Days 5)/ sdimindd0 = ((gsdd5) 0.5 /gsp) / Annual Degree Days <0 C 5. gsdd5 = Growing season Degree Days 5 6. mapdd5 = Mean Annual precip. X Degree Days 5 7. mmax = Mean maximum temperature in the warmest month 8. adimindd0 = ((DD5) 0.5 /map) / Annual Degree Days <0 C

19 Black Spruce Bio-Climate Profile Votes ABSENCE PLOTS (N=148,933) % of 500 Votes PRESENCE PLOTS (N=52,375) 71% of plots <10% of votes % of plots >= 80% of votes 94% of plots <50% of votes % votes > 460 plots >= 50% votes 6% of plots misclassified Only 29 plots were misclassified 0 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Threshold >=50% 0 1 Error OOB 0 140,070 8, ,

20 Black Spruce Bio-Climate Profile Purple >=80% of Votes Pink >= 50% of votes

21 Black Spruce Trailing Edge Complex Pattern / much more than and edge Contemporary RCP RCP RCP

22 Black Spruce Bio-Climate Profile The velocity of global temperature change is highest in flat landscapes at high latitudes. Contemporary RCP RCP RCP

23 Black Spruce Trailing Edge Contemporary RCP The velocity of global temperature change is highest in flat landscapes at high latitudes. RCP RCP

24 Black Spruce Trailing Edge Moderating influence of the ocean is not evident Contemporary RCP RCP RCP

25 Black Spruce Emergent Suitable Habitat Contemporary RCP RCP RCP

26 Black Spruce Emergent Suitable Habitat Contemporary RCP RCP RCP

27 Black Spruce Emergent Suitable Habitat Contemporary RCP RCP RCP

28 Black Spruce Emergent Suitable Habitat Contemporary RCP RCP RCP

29 Ecological Genetic Modeling Height at Age 4 (N=39) (N=90) 2 Range-Wide Studies 2 Regional Studies Maine Test - no map (N=102) 99 range-wide provenances 27 provenances in common with Maritimes test series);

30 Black Spruce Growth Potential Model Plot Means - Scaled Age 4 Height Scaling Range-wide Tests: ratio of heights of common provenances Regional Tests: ratio of provenances with identical climate R 2 = 0.39 Mixed Model (plot data): Fixed = DD5 & mapmtcm Random = study rep(study) pop(study) Calculate LSD... Seed Zones... pending

31 Mapping Black Spruce Growth Potential R 2 = Population Means - Scaled Age 4 Height Ht4Hat = µ + β 1 *DD5 β 2 *MAPMTCM

32 Black Spruce Predicted Growth Potential

33 Black Spruce Predicted Growth Potential Contemporary RCP RCP RCP

34 Black Spruce Predicted Growth Potential Contemporary RCP RCP RCP

35 Black Spruce Predicted Growth Potential Contemporary RCP RCP RCP

36 Black Spruce Predicted Growth Potential Contemporary RCP RCP RCP

37 Climate Niche, ecological genetics, and impact of climate change on Eastern White Pine (Pinus strobus L.): Guidelines for land managers. Joyce, D.G. and Rehfeldt, G.E For Ecol & Mgt 295: BioClimate Profile Ecological Genetics

38 Species Replacement Facilitated Change for both Ecological and Economic Reasons. Predicted Growth Potential for Eastern White Pine Ecological Genetic Profile 2060A CGCM3 Black Spruce RCP Trailing Edge 2060A GFDLCM A HADCM3

39 Acknowledgements All the jurisdictions that shared their plot data. Those forest geneticists who established and measured provenance tests. Canadian Forest Service for access to archived provenance test data University of Maine for access to archived provenance test data Nick Crookston (USFS - retired) for establishing and maintaining climate model web page. Co-author Jerry Rehfeldt for bunches of stuff.

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41 There is an Elephant in the Room Seed Transfer Guidelines under a changing climate Gimli the dwarf What, where, when, how & who? Overwhelming odds. Little chance of success. What are we waiting for?

42 Seed Transfer Guidelines in a Changing Climate Ad hoc movement may succeed... But they do not work the problem. Target Environments will continue to shift Iterative revision of guidelines requires strong record keeping and monitoring Tree Improvement principles are about managing genetically viable populations over multiple generations Drop intensive aspect of breeding theory Establish a broad genetic base sample a large number of stands Abandon RCB experiments Use operational plantings as formal tests. (adapt alpha-plus designs w/ Bayesian analyses) Cooperative efforts are synergistic (Namkoog s multiple population management)

43 Blood, Toil, Tears & Sweat Winston Churchill, May 13, "I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears, and sweat." We have before us an ordeal of the most grievous kind. We have before us many, many long months of struggle and of suffering.

44 "It is far too late and things are far too bad for pessimism.... Or Denial Dee Hock (Inventor of VISA card) WHO? QUESTIONS?