Stacking the deck. When and where will hoder and drier condieons create an opportunity for human ignieons to spread?

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2 Stacking the deck When and where will hoder and drier condieons create an opportunity for human ignieons to spread?

3 Dennison et al GRL

4 Westerling 2016 PTRS

5 Ingredient #1 Climate Our contribueon to climate warming has dried fuels & doubled the amount of western forests that have burned since 1984

6 John T. Abatzoglou, and A. Park Williams PNAS 2016;113: by National Academy of Sciences

7 Annual western continental US forest fire area versus fuel aridity: John T. Abatzoglou, and A. Park Williams PNAS 2016;113: by National Academy of Sciences

8 Ingredient #2: Fuels We have changed the naeon s fuels through our land use and the introduceon of invasive species.

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10 One of the largest fires you ve never heard of

11 Photos: Adam Mahood, Graduate Student at CU- Boulder

12 Ingredient #3: IgniEons We start over 84% of the naeon s wildfires.

13 People: started 84% of all wildfires, tripled the length of the fire season, dominated an area seven Emes greater than that affected by lightning fires, and were responsible for nearly half of all area burned.

14 Balch et al PNAS

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16 Abatzoglou et al ERL

17 Balch et al PNAS

18 human lightning Number of Fires Day of Year (in Julian Days) Balch et al PNAS

19 Number of Fires Mediterranean California Northern Forests Eastern Temperate Forests Month of Year Marine West Coast Forests J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D Southern Semiarid Highlands 0 40 Tropical Wet Forests Northwestern Forested Mountains North American Deserts J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D Great Plains J F M A M J J A S O N D Temperate Sierras J F M A M J J A S O N D human lightning Balch et al PNAS

20 Balch et al PNAS

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23 Balch et al PNAS

24 Future of fire in the U.S. More big and bad fires?

25 How will climate change interact with people

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27 Moritz et al Ecosphere

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30 CoexisEng with fire How we build and how we burn

31 The need for Firewise communiees 4,200 communiees had a 100+ acre wildfire burn within ten miles of town.

32 Floodplains to Fireplains

33 Cohesive Wildland Fire Management/LANDFIRE

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35 Small burns reduce risk of large, climate- driven fires Rebecca Bliege Bird et al. PNAS 2012;109: by National Academy of Sciences

36 The power of big fire data A modern- day palimpsest

37 Palimpsest A palimpsest /ˈpælɪmpsɛst/ is a manuscript page from a scroll or book from which the text has been scraped or washed off so that it can be used again.

38 Fire in the U.S. from 1880 Census Courtesy of S. Pyne

39 Earth Lab s New VisualizaEon Tool for Fire Products Partners: Ball Aerospace, DigitalGlobe, Google Earth Data: NOAA VIIRS, NASA MODIS, DigitalGlobe shortwave IR Google Earth visualiza1on of a fire in northern California in 2015, including MODIS ac1ve fire (blues), VIIRS ac1ve fire (oranges), and DigitalGlobe SWIR backdrop (white is ac1ve fireline).

40 Novel sources of data ICS-209 Form 3/25/17, 11:19 AM Incident Status Summary (ICS-209) 1: Date 07/17/2002 6: Incident Type Wildland Fire 12: County Larimer 2: Time : Start Date Time 07/17/ : Latitude and Longitude Lat: " Long: " 15: Size/Area 16: % Contained or Involved MMA 194 ACRES 0 Percent 21: Injuries Today: 0 24: Threat to Human Life/Safety: Evacuation(s) in progress ---- XX No evacuation(s) imminent -- Potential future threat No likely threat : Initial Update Final XX 8: Cause Human 4: Incident Number CO-ARF-238 9: Incident Commander Ed Guzman 10: IMT Type 3 5: Incident Name Big Elk 11: State-Unit CO-ARF 14: Short Location Description (in reference to nearest town): 9 miles SE of Estes Park, CO Current Situation 17: Expected Containment 18: Line to Build 20: Declared Controlled Date: 217 Date: 19: Costs to Date Time: Chains Time: 23: Structure Information Structure # Threatened Type of # Destroyed Residence Commercial Property 22: Fatalities 0 25: Fuels/Materials Involved Ponderosa Pine, grass, brush 27: Current Weather Conditions Wind Speed: 5-7 mph Temperature: 85 Wind Direction: se Relative Humidity: 18 Outbuilding/Other 26: Resources threatened (kind(s) and value/significance): Watershed, structures, utility lines 28: Resource benefits/objectives (for prescribed/wildland fire use only): 29: Today's observed fire behavior (leave blank for non-fire events): Crown runs, spotting, erratic behavior 30: Significant events today (closures, evacuations, significant progress made, etc.): Evacuation of Big Elk Meadows Subdivision 31: Committed Resources CRW1 CRW2 HEL1 HEL2 HEL3 ENGS OVHD DOZR WTDR Camp Total Agency SR ST SR ST SR SR SR SR ST SR SR ST SR Crews Personnel LGR USFS NPS 1 3 PRI ST 3 3 CNTY Total : Cooperating Agencies Not Listed Above: Image: BLM Page 1 of 2

41 wildfires in Google search in 2015

42 Reframing fire: myths to realiees People play a fundamental role in changing fire, in concert with climate and fuels. Not all fire is bad; fire does good work. We can, and must, live with fire by building beder and burning beder. AddiEonal insights from wildfire science: Schoennagel et al Headwaters Economics

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