Information and tools from the Canadian Forest Service in support of forest sector adaptation

Transcription

1 Information and tools from the Canadian Forest Service in support of forest sector adaptation Forest Change Miren Lorente, Catherine Lafleur, Catherine Ste-Marie and all Forest Change contributors Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada Adaptation Canada 2016 Ottawa, April

2 2 Climate Change Science in the Canadian Forest Service (CFS) Decades of research - Diversity of expertise Multi-disciplinarity - Several syntheses

3 3 Forest Change Natural Resources Canada adaptation program Enhancing competitiveness in a changing climate o Improved coordination and focus o From discipline-specific to cross- and inter-disciplinarity science o Knowledge products and tools to inform adaptation decision making o Emphasis on knowledge exchange and transfer Come see our booth

4 Forest Change - Because a diversity of impacts across a vast and remote territory requires a diversity of expertise 4 Marie-Anick Liboiron Kelvin Hirsch Anne-Hélène Mathey Yan Boulanger Francine Bérubé Maurice Lebon Sandra Bernier Benoît Arsenault Paula Irving Dan McKenney Vincent Roy Louis De Grandpré Mike Fullerton John Pedlar Graham Stinson Richard Parfett Jason Edwards Liam Miller Brian Eddy Richard Carr Martin Girardin Danielle Cantin Phil Burton Miren Lorente Ted Hogg Catherine Lafleur Denis Yemshanov David Price Isabelle Aubin Solange Nadeau Pierre Bernier Catherine Ste-Marie Anthony Taylor Sylvie Gauthier Liz Nelson

5 5 Forest Change Website Launched in January 2016 Science synthesis and integration portal General audience Indicators: trends and outlooks Adaptation tools and resources Work in progress

6 6 Identification of indicators of change Consultation process to develop a list of potential indicators (141) Scan of existing initiatives: national and abroad Selection framework Gauthier et al. (2014) Available on-line:

7 7 Selection of indicators on 15 topics From an initial list of 141 indicators, selection based on: o Relevance to decision making o Extent of coverage (space and time) o Sensitivity to climate o Measurability o Feasibility

8 System Topic Indicator Climate Forest Drought Fire weather Growing season Permafrost Tree species distribution Fire regime Tree mortality Pest incidence Forest growth Phenology Climate Moisture Index (CMI)* Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)* Soil Moisture Index (SMI)* Start+ end + length of fire season* Length of growing season Permafrost temperature Distribution of tree species* Annual area burned* Number of large fires* Fire seasonality* Percent annual loss of living tree biomass* Pest species distribution Radial growth trends Timing of budburst Human Windthrow Cost of fire protection Wildfire evacuations Wildland Urban Interface Transportation Uprooting return interval Wildfire suppression resource expenditures* Number of evacuations & evacuees* Evacuations location* Number of home losses* Population at risk of forest fire Freeze-thaw of winter roads * Available on-line:

9 9 How are the indicators presented in the website? Why drought is important Read how drought and its indicators are defined What has changed An example for drought: CMI in the aspen parkland Hogg et al.

10 10 The outlook 3 time periods Short-term: Medium-term: Long-term: Reference period: greenhouse gas emissions scenarios Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6: Rapid emissions reductions RCP 4.5: Moderate emissions reductions RCP 8.5: Continued emissions increases Hogg et al.

11 11 Downloadable maps and data PDF Shape Raster txt/xls NetCDF ASCII Work in progress

12 References and related links 12

13 Links to tools and resources for adaptation 13 Climate Forest Human

14 14 Link to SeedWhere - a climate similarity mapping tool SeedWhere is a web application: Identifies locations with climate similar to a point of interest Employs two methods to calculate climate similarity Can be used with any number of climate variables Has been developed to incorporate climate change Can be used for both seed procurement and deployment Seed sources for planting at Sudbury, ON Deployment areas for seed from Sudbury, ON increasing similarity 0 1 McKenney et al.

15 15 Database of Adaptation Options An interactive Excel version is available on the Forestry Adaptation Community of Practice (FACoP) site ( Gauthier et al.

16 Aubin et al.

17 Aubin et al.

18 Towards a decision support tool Aubin et al. McKenney et al. Functional Traits Good persistence ability: (drought tolerance) - Deep root system - Vegetative reproduction - fast recovery Persistence ability Migration capacity High migration capacity: - Large production of small seeds - Reach maturity early - Wind dispersion Low sensitivity Minimum intervention Strategy Increase landscape connectivity Strategy Conservation in current habitat High sensitivity Candidate species for assisted migration

19 Canada s climate changes.. forests change too Integrated Assessment of climate change implications for the forest sector to guide policies and investment Productivity & composition Wildland fire Drought Forest tent caterpillar Mountain pine beetle Timber supply costs Timber supply shortage Gypsy moth Spruce budworm

20 Integrated Assessment

21 21 Forest Change Integration of information into forest management New and improved information ( socio-economics) Regional integrated assessment of vulnerabilities data sharing, collaboration, partnerships, dialogue,

22 22 Forest Change Visit our website: Come see our booth! Forest Change contributors attending the Adaptation Canada 2016 Symposium: Jason Edwards Sylvie Gauthier Miren Lorente Dan McKenney Vincent Roy Catherine Ste-Marie