Improving the potential for successful implementation of REDD in Africa

Transcription

1 Improving the potential for successful implementation of REDD in Africa Elizabeth J Z Robinson 1,2,5, H J Albers 2,3, Charles Meshack 4, and Razack B Lokina 2 1 University of Reading, UK 2 Environment for Development Tanzania, University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania 3 Oregon State University, USA; 4 Tanzania Forest Conservation Group, Tanzania 5 University of Gothenburg, Sweden

2 What I will cover today Very brief recap on what most of us know about REDD that is particularly pertinent to my presentation Characterising the sub-saharan African setting What makes implementing REDD in SSA particularly tricky What opportunities are there to make REDD more effective 2

3 REDD recap Recap What most of us know about REDD Loss of forest biomass is estimated to account for between 12 and 17 percent of annual greenhouse gas emissions Kyoto protocol (1997) defined the clean development mechanism (CDM), which made afforestation and reforestation activities eligible for carbon credits but did not include avoided deforestation RED, then REDD, then REDD+ evolved to take account of avoided deforestation, avoided forest degradation, and additional consideration of conservation/sustainable forest management, in low/middle income countries REDD is a mechanism for providing financial rewards to countries that reduce carbon emissions caused by the loss and degradation of forests Payments for avoided deforestation and forest degradation So implementation requires comparison of actual forest change rates, and the associated emissions, to a baseline 3

4 Reasons to be pessimistic? REDD recap REDD is new(ish) for climate change (resembles other Payment for Environmental Services (PES) programs) But there have been many earlier efforts to protect tropical forests Integrated conservation-development projects (ICDPs) Various types of participatory forest management (PFM) Ecotourism Environmental service payment (ESP) programs These initiatives differ little from REDD in terms of protecting the forest resource and sharing the revenue Overall little success Rarely change behaviour (incentives to reduce pressure on forests) as needed Lack of integration between conservation and development Insufficient benefits accruing to sufficient forest users Why will REDD be different? 4

5 SSA setting Characterising the sub-saharan African setting Forest tenure reforms and devolution Degradation important but neglected second D in SSA Demand for fuel 5

6 SSA setting - reforms Forest tenure reforms Many SSA countries implementing forest reforms that increase rights of local users Forest tenure reform policies typically aim to address rural people s dependence on forest resources while protecting those forests from deforestation and degradation Often decentralisation/devolution Tanzania an example 2002 Forest Act provides for community-based forest management where villagers have full rights to use trees for unreserved village and general forest land Provides for participatory forest management on government reserved forest where villagers have no ownership rights, joint responsibility to protect forests, but limited or no rights to collect forest products 6

7 SSA setting - degradation The importance of the second D In many SSA African countries, degradation key element of biomass loss Estimated to account for over one third of all biomass loss in continent Central Mozambique approximately two-thirds net biomass loss Deforestation and degradation occur through different processes Forest degradation occurs when the ability of a forest to provide ecosystem services is reduced but the forest remains Degradation is often the neglected D Much of the literature focuses on deforestation Marginalising or ignoring forest degradation Monitoring deforestation is relatively straightforward due to the prevalence of satellite and other remote sensing data on forest cover Even without baseline data techniques such as propensity score matching can be used Monitoring forest degradation faces more challenges 7

8 SSA setting - degradation Key question: What drives forest degradation? 8

9 SSA setting demand for fuel Demand for fuel key driver of forest degradation in SSA A key driver of degradation of Africa s forests is demand for fuel Firewood used predominantly in rural areas Charcoal used predominantly in urban areas Compare with dominance of selective harvest of high-valued species, and burning, in Amazon upland forests If REDD is to be successful, people will need some combination of More efficient biomass fuels More tree planting New sources of those fuels Alternative fuels Each of which is tricky to implement 9

10 Challenges for implementing REDD in SSA pertinent to today s talk Measuring/monitoring REDD makes payments for reduced emissions through avoided deforestation and forest degradation So its implementation requires comparison of actual forest change rates, and the associated emissions, to a baseline or expected rate of forest change, and its associated emissions Leakage Leakage (displacement of some biomass extraction from REDD forest to other forests) increases challenges for monitoring Funding Challenges Typically rents will accrue from REDD and different stakeholders are likely to disagree on who should get those rents (e.g. government or local forest users) 10

11 Challenges- monitoring Monitoring: Complications of the second D Monitoring deforestation is relatively straightforward due to the prevalence of satellite and other remote sensing data on forest cover Even without baseline data, techniques such as propensity score matching can be used Monitoring forest degradation faces more challenges And therefore evaluation of REDD more difficult The remote-sensing tools for assessing forest degradation are not in widespread use and are expensive as much higher resolution is needed than is the case for detecting and monitoring deforestation Practitioners, including the Tanzania-based NGO TFCG (Tanzania Forest Conservation Group), recognize that they do not have affordable methodologies for determining forest degradation How to measure the benefit when the land use is not changing Collection of fuelwood tends to have little effect on the canopy even if it has a relatively large impact on the stock of biomass 11

12 Challenges - leakage Predicting/measuring/reducing leakage People respond to REDD policies in many ways Any additional deforestation, forest degradation, or carbon emissions that occur outside of the REDD policy area in reaction to that REDD policy or project is leakage Evaluations of forest conservation policies such as parks only recently began to incorporate leakage in consideration of the policy s net benefit So not much learning for REDD Because monitoring degradation is tricky, monitoring leakage of degradation is even more so 12

13 Challenges - Funding Funding mechanisms matter Public funds or special funds use external funding in a pay-per-project structure. Carbon credits, derive from existing carbon markets, such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and the European Trading Scheme Mechanisms differ in terms of their implications for carbon markets, the distribution of producer surplus, and north-south equity 13

14 Challenges - Funding Carbon credits versus special funds Advocates for carbon trading schemes suggest that the declines in carbon price due to the influx of low-cost credit from tropical rainforest regions after integrating avoided deforestation into international emissions trading schemes could cut the cost of post-kyoto climate policy considerably Critics are concerned that REDD will make only a small contribution to decreasing global emissions if it is integrated into carbon markets through offset markets Special funds avoid the likely distortion of a carbon market and also avoid the need to compute in detail the quantity of carbon saved through a REDD initiative, which would involve hard-to-determine baseline data 14

15 Challenges - Funding Pros and cons of implementing REDD at the project level and links to funding A key question is who gets the carbon rents Should villagers receive the full value of the carbon Or should they be compensated and the government collect the rents Has implications for funding mechanisms Whether at local project or national level Whether through carbon markets or special funds 15

16 Opportunities What opportunities are there to make REDD more effective? Reward effort rather than outcome Improve measurement and monitoring through combining modeling and statistical methods Monitor proxies Demand for fuel and fuel transitions 16

17 Opportunities - Effort Reward effort rather than results Some NGOs are rewarding effort rather than outcome Pros Realistic approach Enables upfront payments to villagers whereas results-based REDD means delays in compensation for upfront costs May get more buy in Villagers more likely to engage/cooperate Releases funds upfront for enforcement But Reduces pressures to address leakage and monitoring? Easier to make mistakes? Probably still want reward for results 17

18 Opportunities modeling and methods Combine modeling and data UN suggests developing statistical models to predict the amount of avoided forest degradation from REDD policies when the expense of monitoring proves daunting But what informs these models? Our modeling work suggests statistical modelling should reflect economic modelling of forest degradation patterns resulting from resource extraction Household responses to REDD and ensuing impact depend on market access Consider the extremes No market access and no fuel substitutes => high leakage if alternative forests available but little impact on carbon Else larger impact on carbon but large negative welfare, high conflict Full market access => little displacement, replacement with alternatives, lower conflict, greater REDD impact 18

19 Opportunities - fuel Monitor proxies In SSA a key driver of degradation is demand for fuel Fuelwood in rural areas Charcoal in urban areas Monitoring fuel choices and fuel transitions could give just as accurate estimate of pressure on forests as measuring degradation Both will be estimates Both will have errors 19

20 Opportunities - fuel Addressing demand for fuel Address long-run fuel transitions and role of biomass A more holistic approach could take into account overall fuel choices and fuel use in the country Measuring total charcoal use (such as through household budget surveys) And legal charcoal production rather than charcoal-driven degradation Measure adoption of fuel efficient stoves in rural areas And areas devoted to woodlots Has implications for how REDD is funded Implies funding may need to be centralised so funds available for addressing drivers Implies carbon rents cannot all go to local communities And so has implications for devolution/forest tenure reform 20

21 Opportunities - fuel We need to know how people might respond to REDD-induced access restrictions Possible responses to reduced fuel access Impact on welfare Impact on emissions Use less fuel Negative Positive Use more fuel efficient stoves Slightly negative Positive Find fuel elsewhere Slightly negative Negligible (leakage) Plant own trees Slightly negative Positive ( negative leakage ) Switch to other fuels Slightly negative Positive (depends on fuel) And how to influence responses additional costs of REDD 21

22 Who captures the surplus? In some developing countries, expectations have arisen that the countries should get significant net benefits from REDD; that it is not sufficient for the REDD payments simply to compensate the poorer countries for not cutting down or degrading their forests, but that there should be sufficient net transfers for economic development and poverty reduction The value of carbon emissions avoided could be significantly higher than the cost of achieving that level of avoided carbon emission Who captures the surplus? 22

23 In brief In many sub-saharan African countries degradation particularly important Monitoring and evaluation are more difficult Where demand for fuel is key driver Leakage; negative impact on household welfare; or conflict likely to occur unless fuel demand is dealt with explicitly The value of carbon emissions avoided could be significantly higher than the cost of achieving that level of avoided carbon emission Who captures the surplus? Implementation at national level implies rents to government? Government can use REDD rents to address drivers But implementing REDD at the project level reduces cumbersome bureaucracy, and enables direct contact with the individuals most affected 23