Managing Climate Change and Securing a Future for the Midwest s Industrial Base

Transcription

1 Managing Climate Change and Securing a Future for the Midwest s Industrial Base David Ball, MRCSP Project Manager Battelle (614) balld@battelle.org Presentation to: Pennsylvania DCNR Terrestrial Seminar Harrisburg, PA May 9, 2005 DOE Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FC26-03NT41981 Sjoerd Duiker, MRCSP Terrestrial Research Penn State (814) swd10@psu.edu

2 MRCSP Mission be the premier resource in its Region for identifying the technical, economic, and social considerations associated with CO 2 sequestration and creating viable pathways for its deployment.

3 The MRCSP is One of Seven DOE Regional Partnerships Across the U. S. The other sixare: Geological Carbon Sequestration Options in the Illinois Basin Southeast Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership Southwest Regional Partnership for Carbon Sequestration Plains CO 2 Reduction Partnership Big Sky Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership West Coast Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership See for more information from NETL on the seven partnerships.

4 The Midwest Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership A diverse group including many of the region s major energy companies, agricultural entities, research organizations, government agencies, and NGOs. U.S. Department of Energy/NETL

5 The MRCSP Region: The Nation s Engine Room One in six Americans 1/6 of U.S. economy 1/5 of all electricity generated 3/4 from coal Sequestration technologies are are needed to to protect protect core core economic assets assets in in the the region region in in a greenhouse gas gas constrained world world

6 Geologic Sequestration Potential* Deep saline formations: Natural gas reservoirs: ~160,000 MMTCO 2 ~4,000 MMTCO 2 Unmineable coal seams: ~1,000 MMTCO 2 Oil reservoirs: ~150 MMTCO 2 (*) These are preliminary estimates that will be further refined by the end of Phase I

7 Terrestrial Sequestration Potential* Marginal Lands: ~100 MMTCO 2 /yr Wetland/Peatland: ~15 MMTCO 2 /yr Non Eroded Cropland: ~15 MMTCO 2 /yr Eroded Cropland: ~10 MMTCO 2 /yr Minelands: ~5 MMTCO 2 /yr (*) These are preliminary estimates that will be further refined by the end of Phase I

8 Carbon Sequestration Potential of Afforestation of Marginal Agricultural Land in the Midwest U.S. Region Objectives Identify marginal agricultural land (MagLand) Develop scenarios to convert MagLand to forestland Estimate carbon sequestration potential Identify hot spots Develop a decision tool

9 Definition of Marginal Agricultural Land Crop land Severely eroded Other non-prime land restricted by water table, slope, depth of soils, rock fragment, texture, etc. Pasture land Severely eroded Eroded Other non-prime land Barren land

10 Determine Marginal Agricultural Land in the MRCSP Region Agricultural Land: USGS NLCD Marginal land: USDA - STATSGO Marginal Ag Land

11 Carbon Pools Above ground tree biomass Root biomass ( coarse roots & stump) Forest floor (litter) Soil organic carbon (30cm depth) (Smith and Heath, 2002)

12 Afforestation Scenarios Crop / Pasture Previous Landuse Forest Species Conifer Deciduous Permanent: without harvesting Short-rotation: Harvesting every 20yrs Permanent Short-rotation Management

13 Marginal Agricultural Lands IN KY MD MI OH PA WV SUM/ MEAN AREA (Kha) % TTL Land % Ag.Land

14 Carbon Sequestration Capacity Forest Type Total Carbon Sequestration Capacity (Tg or g C) 20 Years 50 Years Permanent Short-rotation Conifers Deciduous

15 Forest Carbon Partitioning C S P R ate (kg C /h a/yr) Conifer Deciduous ROOT FLOOR SOC BIOM TOTAL Carbon pools

16 Hot Spots - Conifer 20 yrs

17 Decision tool ( e.g. Afforestation of conifers over 20 years ) LEVEL 1 ( Total Carbon Sequestration Potential per County > 3.4 TgC ) STATE MI IN KY OH PA WV MD TOTAL COUNTY# AREA (kha) %AgLand CSP_Tg

18 Decision tool ( e.g. Afforestation of conifers over 20 years ) LEVEL 2 ( Total Carbon Sequestration Potential per County > 2.2 TgC ) STATE MI IN KY OH PA WV MD TOTAL COUNTY# AREA (kha) %AgLand CSP_Tg

19 Decision tool ( e.g. Afforestation of conifers over 20 years ) LEVEL 3 ( Total Carbon Sequestration Potential per County > 1.3 TgC ) STATE MI IN KY OH PA WV MD TOTAL COUNTY# AREA (kha) %AgLand CSP_Tg

20 Summary Marginal agricultural land in the MRCSP region Total about 6.5 million hectare Account for about 24% total agricultural land Potential carbon sequestration capacity About 508 ~ 540 Tg C over 20 years About 890 ~ 1205 Tg C over 50 years

21 Future Studies Improved estimations of sequestration potential of different forest species Verification Economic impact Social impact

22 Outreach: Recently Launched an Interactive Website We also have a stakeholder database of over 600. Direct contacts with that database have been effective in increasing our web visits from about 400/mo to about 900/mo since launching the interactive site A means of delivering a coherent message on sequestration and Its relevance to the Region While obtaining stakeholder input and establishing an on-going dialogue with stakeholders

23 Regulatory Analysis What are we Doing? Acquire, review, and catalogue existing state regulations that affect geologic and terrestrial sequestration implementation (mostly complete) Conduct workshops with state officials (so far in West Virginia and Ohio) Outline a regulatory framework for geologic sequestration (in progress) What have we Learned? The current regulatory regime for Underground Injection Control system (40 CFR 144.6) is being reviewed for applicability to geologic CO 2 sequestration Four states in the region have primacy: Indiana, Maryland, Ohio and West Virginia No applications for CO 2 injection into deep saline formations, but four states have experience with CO 2 injection for enhanced oil or gas recovery: Kentucky, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia

24 Summary: Our Goal is to Deliver Robust Carbon Management Strategies Define the real world potential for carbon sequestration in the Region Help the Region take a first step towards implementation Position the Region as a leader in developing robust carbon management solutions

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