Change Research at the USDA Forest Service: What We Have Learned over the last 20 Years

Transcription

1 LIVE INTERACTIVE YOUR DESKTOP Change Research at the USDA Forest Service: What We Have Learned over the last 20 Years Presented by: Dr. Carlos Rodriguez-Franco and Vicki Arthur May 4, 2011

2 Forest Service Research and Development Science Serving Society Climate Change and Forests Carlos Rodriguez Franco Forest management Sciences Director May 4, 2011

3 US Forest Service Mission Sustain the health, diversity, and productivity of the Nation s forests and grasslands to meet the needs of present and future generations. Science Serving Society

4 Research & Development Mission and Purpose Our Mission: We develop and deliver knowledge and innovative technology to improve the health and use of forests and rangelands Our core purpose: Sustain forests and grasslands and the values they provide people Science Serving Society

5 Research & Development Capacity and Assets More than 500 permanent scientists plus dozens of post-docs A network of 77 field laboratories in 67 locations Long-term research on 80 experimental forests and ranges, plus >250 research natural areas More than 1,000 cooperative research agreements with partners Budget - $280 million Science Serving Society

6 Drivers of Future Science and Management Restoration and recovery managing with disturbance Capturing value in ecosystems Linking land use and water Social dynamics and resource use Urban natural resource stewardship Globalization Science Serving Society

7 The USDA Forest Service Largest forest land manager in the U.S. 147 million acres (20% of all forest land) Additional 41 million acres of rangeland Three main branches: National Forest System State and Private Forestry Research Chief is serious about addressing climate change issues Science Serving Society

8 Processes affecting vegetation Dynamics Man made Fire. Grazing Disturbances Intensity frequency Catastrophic Natural Earthquakes, Fire Snow storms, Hurricanes, Land slides, Tornados, Insect and disease attack Floods Natural Climate Change has strong influence on these disturbances Non - Catastrophic (Same as above, but a lower scale) Man made Science Serving Society Source: White, S.P Pattern, process, and natural disturbance in vegetation. Botanical review 45:

9 Factors affecting tree growth Tree species intrinsic characteristics: tolerance, genetic pool Climatic conditions Precipitation Solar radiation Day length Temperature Wind Number of days with light Orography Topography Altitude Aspect Soil Depth Organic matter Water availability Texture Ph Nutrient content Science Serving Society

10 Let s pause for questions from the audience

11 Climate Change Mean annual global surface temps. increased ~0.74ºC from , with the change over the last 50 years twice that of the last 100 years. Since 1995, 11 of the warmest years on record have occurred. By the end of the century, mean annual increases of 1.8 to 4.0ºC are expected (relative to ). IPCC Climate change 2007: The scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Science Serving Society

12 Results from different methods agree Holocene lake-sediment records -- increased fire activity in warmer drier climates. Fire-scar records -- drought and warmer temperatures increase fire occurrence and extent. Recent fire ( ) also directly associated with drought except for arid systems, which need priming and curing of fuels. Science Serving Society

13 Climate Change and Disturbances Disturbances Natural Anthropogenic Climate Change Ecosystems Fire regimes Increased severity Possible changes in size, seasonality Drought Increase in frequency Insects and diseases Changes in distributions Hurricanes, landslides, ice storms, windstorms Alterations are possible Science Serving Society

14 Forest disturbances Drought Wildland fire Pests and diseases Science Serving Society

15 Interior lodgepole pine Global warming Higher temperatures & more severe and extended droughts Stand-replacing fire regime Stand-replacing fire has multiple causes. Bark beetles and defoliators Lodgepole pine mortality Extensive mature cohorts (70-80 yrs) Large severe fires Fuel accumulation Salvage logging Changes in species composition (including exotics) Science Serving Society

16 Lodgepole pine Extended warm period, insects, vulnerable age classes, pines die, fuels accumulate, large fires.

17 High Elevation Pines >1.4 million acres affected by mountain pine beetle e.g., whitebark pine serves as keystone species vital to the survival of Clark s nutcracker, bears and others. Schwandt, J.W Whitebark pine in peril: A case for restoration current health assessment. R Coeur d Alene: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Region, 20 p.

18 Plant-climate Relationships By the end of the century, ~50% of the West is predicted to experience climates that are incompatible with the vegetation occurring there today. Gerry Rehfeldt, Nick Crookston and Dennis Ferguson Rocky Mountain Research Station, Moscow, ID Science Serving Society

19 Flows of carbon from the atmosphere to the forest and back. Carbon is stored mostly in live and dead wood as forests grow (adapted from Ryan and Law 2005). Science Serving Society

20 Carbon Dioxide 45 % of the dry weight of plants is Carbon, which comes from atmospheric CO 2 converted into carbohydrates by the process of photosynthesis. The atmosphere contains 350 ppm of CO 2 and this low concentration limits the rate of photosynthesis. The increase in concentration of atmospheric CO 2 should be welcomed by farmers and foresters, because of its direct fertilization effects on plants, but this increase in CO 2 causes an increase in temperature known as the greenhouse effect, and a change in rainfall patterns that indirectly will affect plant growth and human activities unfavorably. Source: Kozlowski, T.T., Kramer, P.J. and Pallardy, S.G The physiological ecology of woody plants. Academic Press Inc., USA. 657 p. Science Serving Society

21 Let s pause for questions from the audience

22 Global Climate Change Research Strategy Overview Science Serving Society

23 Program Elements of the Forest Service Climate Change Research Enhance ecosystem resilience, increase retention of newly sequestered carbon, and avoid carbon losses from major disturbances. Enhance carbon sequestration via through increased forest growth rates and area of forested lands; enhanced biomass extraction and utilization. Develop decision support tools and approaches for policymakers and land managers. Meet needs for national infrastructure, scientific collaboration, and technology transfer to facilitate and implement the research and applications in the first three elements. Science Serving Society

24 Mitigation and Adaptation There is confusion around these ideas. Type what you believe each one is, and an example in the chat. Use the format: Mitigation is.. example Adaptation is example -

25 RELATIONSHIP OF MITIGATION TO ADAPTATION Adaptation and mitigation are often confused with each other, leading to miscommunication and misunderstanding. Equal confusion stems from the misconception that they are mutually exclusive. In a nutshell: an unhealthy forest will not sequester carbon, but carbon sequestration can help us promote and sustain healthy forests. That is, healthy and climate-adapted forests are necessary to successfully mitigate greenhouse gases in the long run. Adaptation and mitigation are mutually supportive. Science Serving Society

26 Understanding Ecosystem Changes Effects of multiple stresses on ecosystem processes Species migration and composition changes Climate change and disturbances Implications for land management (adaptation and mitigation) Science Serving Society

27 Climate Change and Forest Processes Productivity Under elevated CO 2, forest productivity increases, subject to moisture and nutrient conditions Under warmer scenarios, increased drought, fire Climate only changes result in a decline in productivity Carbon Storage Modest warming could increase carbon storage Water Use Runoff could increase in areas of the US Interactions with Air Pollutants N deposition Tropospheric ozone Science Serving Society

28 Ecosystem Changes: Vegetation distributions Results influenced by Treatment of CO 2 effects Particular climate scenario Results indicate Direction of change Magnitude uncertain Sensitive to climate Species composition Vegetation boundaries Science Serving Society

29 Science Serving Society Ecosystem Changes: Tree Species Migration

30 Water Cycle: Potential Effects of Climate Change on US Forests Climate change impacts on water quantity and quality Effects of water stress on ecosystem physiology Effects of climate change and air pollution on nutrient cycling Integrated ecosystem process and hydrologic models Science Serving Society

31 Carbon Stocks and Stock Changes Estimated from Forest Inventory Data Tree carbon per hectare by U.S. county Science Serving Society

32 Decision Support: Transferring research results to land managers Action: Research to enhance carbon accounting tools COLE: Carbon On-line Estimation web tool Science Serving Society

33 Let s pause for questions from the audience

34 Forest Service Strategic Planning Resource Assessments Mandated by RPA of 1974 The periodic assessments synthesize and integrate: Current scientific knowledge, Current inventories of resource conditions and Analyses of alternative future conditions. RPA climate change assessments: 1990, 1995, 2000 Science Serving Society

35 Ecosystem Changes Implications for Forest Management Reduce non-climate stresses Intensify habitat and species management Reduce the risk of catastrophic disturbances Insects, diseases, invasives, fire Consider climate variability in management and restoration plans National forest plans Other public and private forest values Adjust natural resource yield and harvest models Landscape management migration corridors, edges of ranges Protect coastal wetlands, allow for sea-level rise Science Serving Society

36 Silviculture can be the answer. Increase spatial heterogeneity (i.e, in terms of composition, age, structure, etc.). S. Munson, FHP-R4 Science Serving Society

37 Mitigation: Reducing carbon emissions from major disturbances Action: Field research on forest density, insect life cycles, fire properties, forest recovery decades, centuries years, decades days, years Science Serving Society

38 Removals: Increase carbon sequestration by increasing bioproducts Action: Research on new forest products, substitutes for high carbon-intensity materials, development of biofuels Science Serving Society

39 A Roadmap for responding to climate change 1. Assessing 2. Engaging 3. Managing Science Serving Society

40 USDA Forest Service Research & Development Science Serving Society Questions?

41 Naturalinquirer.org Science Education Journal for Middle School Students

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76 National Science Teachers Association Dr. Francis Q. Eberle, Executive Director Zipporah Miller, Associate Executive Director Conferences and Programs Al Byers, Assistant Executive Director e-learning NSTA Web Seminars Paul Tingler, Director Jeff Layman, Technical Coordinator LIVE INTERACTIVE YOUR DESKTOP