Disturbance in the Caribbean Manuscript Steering Committee

Transcription

1 Disturbance in the Caribbean Manuscript Steering Committee Skip Van Bloem Nick Brokaw Steve Davis Diego Perez Salicrup Luciana Porter Bob Waide Mike Willig Short and Pithy Essay

2 IDEAS AND PERSPECTIVES Goal: To orient a new research agenda and culture of collaboration concerning hurricane research Disturbance paradigm Intensity, Frequency, Extent, & Severity Greater Caribbean area is hurricane mediated & biodiversity hotspot Climate change new opportunity to probe the system Natural experiments to quantify the re-assembly of ecosystem structure and function Disturbances, especially intense ones, alter the delivery of ecosystem services Descriptive, site-specific, not predictive Comprehensive understanding of resistance & resilience Manipulative experiments Non-manipulative experiments (geographic and environmental gradients) Definition of hurricanes as a disturbance agent Beyond wind speed and barometric pressure (Saffir-Simpson) Precipitation and Storm Surge Alters comparative framework for synthesis Synoptic network of sites and collaborators Similar phenomena (ideal list) Similar spatiotemporal foci at multiple scales (ideal list) Comparative basis for resistance and resilience (Miguel s manuscript) Socioecological perspective Cycle of Intact and degraded ecosystems Cycle is affected by human decision making (management, conservation, policy) Ecosystem services affect human decision making (close the loop) One-night stand versus enduring partnership (theoretical motivation) New Approaches (egs): Bayesian tools and intervention analysis (spatiotemporal autocorrelation)

3 IDEAS AND PERSPECTIVES Goal: To orient a new research agenda and culture of collaboration concerning hurricane research Disturbance paradigm Intensity, Frequency, Extent, & Severity Greater Caribbean area is hurricane mediated & biodiversity hotspot Climate change new opportunity to probe the system Natural experiments to quantify the re-assembly of ecosystem structure and function Disturbances, especially intense ones, alter the delivery of ecosystem services Descriptive, site-specific, not predictive Comprehensive understanding of resistance & resilience Manipulative experiments Non-manipulative experiments (geographic and environmental gradients) Definition of hurricanes as a disturbance agent Beyond wind speed and barometric pressure (Saffir-Simpson) Precipitation and Storm Surge Alters comparative framework for synthesis Synoptic network of sites and collaborators Similar phenomena (ideal list) Similar spatiotemporal foci at multiple scales (ideal list) Comparative basis for resistance and resilience (Miguel s manuscript) Socioecological perspective Cycle of Intact and degraded ecosystems Cycle is affected by human decision making (management, conservation, policy) Ecosystem services affect human decision making (close the loop) One-night stand versus enduring partnership (theoretical motivation) New Approaches (egs): Bayesian tools and intervention analysis (spatiotemporal autocorrelation)

4 DOMAIN OF NETWORK Atmosphere Hydrosphere Biosphere Geosphere Socioeconomic Context = Gray Rectangle Socioecological System Ecosystem Services

5 Non-Spatial Model Disturbance Regime M D Ecosystem (E) DE A B S DE = F (D, A, B, S) S e c o n d a r y S u c c e s s i o n

6 Spatial Model (Example) DISTURBANCE HURRICANE LANDUSE FINE SCALE PROCESS DEMOGRAPHY Recruitment Growth Survivorship DISPERSAL OF INDIVIDUALS BIODIVERSITY BROAD SCALE PATTERN HETEROGENEITY Patch types Patch sizes Patch arrangement

7 21 st Century Ecology Oikos = Home

8 Metacommunity Structure in the Caribbean: Perspectives, Models, and Data Michael R. Willig Center for Environmental Sciences & Engineering Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology

9 Community Characteristics at Multiple Scales Regional Local

10 Caribbean Islands

11 Caribbean Bat Species Composition

12 Bat Species Composition Inter-island distance Island area Island elevation Hurricaneinduced disturbance Slope P-value Slope P-value Slope P-value ρ P-value Bahamas Greater Antilles Lesser Antilles

13 A Hurricane Metrics t = (a + b + c) / a b c B t / 2 t = (a + b + c) / 3 t / a b c C d e a b c

14 Metacommunity Structure

15 Caribbean Bat Metacommunity Structure Coherence Species turnover Abs P Reps P Boundary clumping Morisita's index P Metacommunity structure All species Bahamas Clementsian Greater Antilles 113 < < Nested Lesser Antilles 92 < < < Clementsian Endemics removed Bahamas Clementsian Greater Antilles 81 < < Nested Lesser Antilles 70 < < Clementsian

16 Elevation Variation Metacommunty Structure Elfin Forest Palo Colorado Forest Tabonuco Forest

17 Metacommunity Perspective Luquillo Forest Dynamics Plot N

18 Landscape Perspective Compositional and Configurational Metrics

19 P&W MetaC paper - Table 2 Island area Elevation Latitude Longitude ρ P-value ρ P-value ρ P-value ρ P-value All species Bahamas Greater Antilles < Lesser Antilles < Endemics removed Bahamas Greater Antilles < Lesser Antilles < < 0.001

20 LOG SPECIES RICHNESS Caribbean Bats Species Richness & Area LOG AREA (KM 2 )

21 LOG SPECIES RICHNESS Caribbean Bats Species Richness & Elevation ELEVATION (KM)

22 LOG GUILD RICHNESS Caribbean Bats Guild Richness & Area LOG AREA (KM 2 )

23 LOG GUILD RICHNESS Caribbean Bats Guild Richness & Elevation ELEVATION (KM)

24 Hurricanes in the Bahamas Number of Islands Hurricane PC score

25 Hurricanes in the Greater Antilles Number of Islands Hurricane PC score

26 Hurricanes in the Lesser Antilles Number of Islands Hurricane PC score

27 Metacommunity Structure

28 Legend Water Urban and barren Tidally flooded evergreen dwarf-shrubland and forb vegetation Tidally and semi-permanently flooded evergreen sclerophyllous forest Submontane wet evergreen forest Submontane and lower montane wet evergreen sclerophyllous forest/shrub Submontane and lower montane wet evergreen sclerophyllous forest Submontane and lower montane wet evergreen forest/shrub and active/abandoned shade coffee Seasonally flooded rainforest Sand and rock Salt mining Salt and mud flats Quarries Pasture Other emergent wetlands (including seasonally flooded pasture) Lowland moist semi-deciduous forest/shrub Lowland moist semi-deciduous forest Lowland moist seasonal evergreen forest/shrub Lowland moist seasonal evergreen forest Lowland moist seasonal evergreen and semi-deciduous forest/shrub Lowland moist seasonal evergreen and semi-deciduous forest Lowland moist evergreen hemisclerophylous shrubland Lowland moist coconut palm forest Lowland dry semideciduous woodland/shrubland Lowland dry semideciduous forest Lowland dry mixed evergreen drought-deciduous shrubland with succulents Lowland dry and moist, mixed seasonal evergreen sclerophyllous forest Lower montane wet evergreen forest - tall cloud forest Lower montane wet evergreen forest - mixed palm and elfin cloud forest Lower montane wet evergreen forest - elfin cloud forest Agriculture/hay Agriculture Active sun/shade coffee, submontane and lower montane wet forest/shrub