Επιπτώςεισ τησ Κλιματικήσ Αλλαγήσ ςτα Οικοςυςτήματα τησ Μεςογείου. Erasmus+ Staff Teaching Δευτέρα 16 Μαΐου 2016

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1 Επιπτώςεισ τησ Κλιματικήσ Αλλαγήσ ςτα Οικοςυςτήματα τησ Μεςογείου Erasmus+ Staff Teaching Δευτέρα 16 Μαΐου 2016

2 Επιπτώςεισ τησ Κλιματικήσ Αλλαγήσ ςτα Οικοςυςτήματα τησ Μεςογείου Χερςαία οικοςυςτήματα- Δάςη (πεδινά και ορεινά), Παράκτια-Θαλάςςια οικοςυςτήματα, Αγροοικοςυςτήματα. Έμφαςη θα δοθεί ςτισ έννοιεσ Παραγωγικότητα, Ερημοποίηςη, Βιοποικιλότητα, Μεταναςτεύςεισ - Εξαφανίςεισ ειδών

3 Climate Change the basics

4 CO 2 pollution and Global Warming Svante Arrhenius ( ) was a Swedish scientist that was the first to claim in 1896 that fossil fuel combustion may eventually result in enhanced global warming. He proposed a relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and temperature.

5 CO 2 and Global Warming NOAA Figure SPM.1 Observed global mean combined land and ocean surface temperature anomalies, from 1850 to 2012 from three data sets & map of the observed surface temperature change from 1901 to 2012 derived from temperature trends determined by linear regression from one dataset (IPCC 2013).

6 CO 2 and Greenhouse gases Figure SPM.5 Radiative forcing estimates in 2011 relative to 1750 and aggregated uncertainties for the main drivers of climate change (IPCC 2013).

7 (IPCC 2007) In 2005 CO2 atmospheric concentrations reached the highest values of the last years (IPCC 2007)

8 Temperature ( C) Departure from average (IPCC 2007) Northern Hemisphere (IPCC 2001 WG-I) Year

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10 Scenario A1B Equivalent CO2 concentrations are expected at 850 ppm in 2100 compared to 379 ppm for CO2 in 2005 (IPCC 2007). (IPCC 2007) Drought Impact JJA-end of 21 st century

11 Scenario A1B Equivalent CO2 concentrations are expected at 850 ppm in 2100 compared to 379 ppm for CO2 in 2005 (IPCC 2007). (IPCC 2007) Drought Impact JJA-end of 21 st century Annual Prec: IPCC projections vs

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13 Τη θαζορίδεη τε βροχόπτωσε στε Μεσόγεηο;

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19 IPCC (2007) climate scenarios for the Mediterranean suggest a decline in precipitation, particularly in the south-east as a result of global warming Annual Winter Summer Winter Precipitation changes over Europe projected for 2080 to 2099 based on 1980 to 1999 climate averaged over 21 models under equivalent CO2 concentrations of 850 ppm in 2100 (MMD-A1B simulations)

20 Impacts of Climatic Change (Meinshausen et al ; IPCC 2013) Drought Impact JJA-end of 21 st century (IPCC 2oo7) Mid latitude regions of the world (but not only ) are expected to be affected by higher drought stress as a result of global warming

21 Observed Impacts of Climatic Change Figure SPM.2 Widespread impacts in a changing world. (A) Global patterns of impacts in recent decades attributed to climate change, based on studies since the AR4 I (IPCC 2014).

22 Impacts of Climatic Change Assessment Box SPM.1 Figure 1 A global perspective on climate-related risks. Risks associated with reasons for concern are shown at right for increasing levels of climate change (IPCC 2014).

23 Winter (DJF) averaged-mean Mediterranean precipitation anomalies (with respect to ) from 1500 to 2002 From: Luterbacher J, Xoplaki E, Casty C et al. (2006) Mediterranean climate variability over the last centuries: A review. In: The Mediterranean Climate: an overview of the main characteristics and issues (eds Lionello P, Malanotte-Rizzoli P, Boscolo R), pp Elsevier, Amsterdam.

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25 Mediterranean Ecosystems the basics

26 Palahi et al. 2007

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28 FAO, 2013

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42 Desertification

43 Desertification

44 Desertification Pinus sp. Deep-rooted plants survive the Mediterranean dry season by utilizing moisture accumulating belowground from past rainfall events (see Sarris et al for more details). Photo: D. Sarris & D. Christodoulakis (Sarris and Koutsias 2014)

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46 Pinus sylvestris Tree mortality Pinus sylvestris Abies cilicicia Pinus nigra 26 b Cedrus atlantica Documented drought induced mortality areas in Europe, Northern Africa and Asia Minor (Allen et al. 2010)

47 Pinus sylvestris Pinus sylvestris Pinus brutia, Samos Island, Greece 26 b Sarris et al Cedrus atlantica

48 Exceptional damage from drought on Samos Island, Greece in the year 2000 was also recorded for the evergreen sclerophyllous (macchia) scrub vegetation of this area Juniperus phoenicea and Phillyrea latifolia were affected most, Quercus coccifera and wild Olea second and Pistacia lentiscus least (Körner et al. 2005)

49 Productivity Cambium tissue cells found in the stem of perennial plants are responsible for constructing new plant vessels each year. These vessels are formed through lignification and serve to transport water, nutrients and to provide mechanical support. Environmental factors influence this process. As a result distinct rings on wood cross sections are created called tree-rings. Each of these rings corresponds to a plant growing season. Phloem Zone of cambial cells Tree-ring of 1986 Tree-ring of 1985

50 Phloem Zone of cambial cells Tree-ring of 1986 Tree-ring of 1985 In Mediterranean climate tree-ring width is relative to moisture availability, the more we approach a plant species xeric distribution limits and the drier the habitat e.g. dry limestone substrate biotopes. Tree-ring width from such habitats is most sensitive to precipitation variability. Thus, signals of past and current drought events can be reflected in the properties of tree-rings and their dendrochronological investigation can help determine a tree species status under a drier climate. The Aleppo pine group is one such example.

51 T Xeric margins P P. brutia Xeric margins T P P. nigra

52 Pinus halepensis cross-section

53 Sampling for extracting tree-ring cores

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63 ARAXOS PARNONAS ANTIKITHIRA STROFADES

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68 Needle production can also be affected (Körner et al. 2005)

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70 Samos Island Greece (Sarris et al. 2007)

71 Significant changes in distribution of forests & Tree Mortality Climate-driven projected changes in vegetation often are represented as maps of spatial change (A, B). Implicit and potentially overlooked in such presentations is the underlying widespread tree mortality (C, D)(see Allen et al. 2o15 and references their in)

72 Drought Induced Tree Mortality Global Scale Locations of substantial drought- and heat-induced tree mortality around the globe since 1970, documented by peer-reviewed studies. (see Allen et al. 2o15 and references their in)

73 Drought Induced Tree Mortality Global Scale Locations of substantial drought- and heat-induced tree mortality around the globe since 1970, documented by peer-reviewed studies. (see Allen et al. 2o15 and references their in)

74 Mediterranean The Mediterranean has experienced intense drought conditions in recent decades that have also had a strong impact in its eastern basin. Observed time series of Mediterranean (30N-45N; 10W-40W) cold season (Nov- Apr) precipitation for (left) and the change for minus (right), (Hoerling et al. 2012).

75 In this case, pines may be pushed very close to their survival limits and can even be desiccated, as was documented in the eastern Aegean island of Samos in late summer 2000, even for 80-years old trees (Sarris et al. 2007) Sarris et al. 2007

76 Such incidents of increased pine mortality were repeated in southern Greece at the end of summer 2007 (also a very dry year) P. halepensis (natural forest) P. halepensis (planted forest)

77 Change in species distribution range T Xeric margins P P. brutia Xeric margins T P P. nigra

78 Not only forests

79 Not only forests

80 Not only forests

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82 Forest fire impacts..

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84 (Hoerling et al. 2011) ople/judith.perlwitz/publicati ONS/Hoerling_etal_MedDrough t_revised.pdf

85 Agroforestry systems (Sarris et al. unpublished )