Cotton: World Markets and Trade

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1 United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series FOP - December Cotton: World Markets and Trade Unprecedented Daily Price Volatility Rules the Market Now Daily NY Nearby Futures Cents pound Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Nov- / -/ /- / Trend / -/ % Confidence Interval Daily volatility in the cotton futures market increased in / and continues to rise. In / prices moved outside of the relatively narrow range they had been trading in. Recent higher prices are supported by fundamental market conditions, such as, the tightest global stocks-to-use ration in years and the smallest U.S. stocks in years. However, fundamentals do not account for the unprecedented price volatility of recent months, when futures prices moved up or down the limit of the last trading days. In the face of tight global stocks and China s depleted state reserves, the impact of uncertainty regarding China s import needs, has lead to great volatility. Another source of uncertainty is the lack of transparency in India s export program on cotton and yarn. Since the initial restrictions on cotton exports were announced in April, the program has changed frequently and unexpectedly. Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

2 US cents/lbs Monthly Average Cotton Prices Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Nov- Feb- May- Aug- Nov- A-Index Spot Price Price U.S. spot prices have backed off from the unprecedented surge over the last month. The November spot price, which averaged. cents/lbs, was the highest since the Civil War. The A-Index fell from record $. seen in early November to $. at the end of the month, but has recovered to $.. However, the monthly average prices do not convey the magnitude of the daily price volatility seen in the last month. TRADE CHANGES IN / Major Exporters: Brazil is raised, bales to. million on larger supplies. Australia is lowered, bales to. million due to export logistical constrains. Uzbekistan is lowered, bales to. million on a smaller crop. Major Importers Pakistan is lowered, bales to. million as domestic demand deteriorates. December

3 Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (, lb Bales and, Ha) Mktg Year Beginning Total Dom. Cons. Argentina / / Australia / - - / / - - / - - / Brazil / / Burkina / Egypt / - / - - Greece / India / - - Malawi / Mali / Pakistan / - - / South Africa / - Spain / Tajikistan December

4 Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (Continued) (, lb Bales and, Ha) Mktg Year Beginning Total Dom. Cons. / Thailand / United States / - - Uzbekistan / World World / - - / / - - / / , December

5 Table Cotton World,, and Trade (Season Beginning August ) ( MT) / / / / Nov / Dec / China,,,,,, India,,,,,, United States,,,,,, Pakistan,,,,,, Brazil,,,,,, Uzbekistan,,,,, Australia Other,,,,,, Total,,,,,, USE Dom. Consumption China,,,,,, India,,,,,, Pakistan,,,,,, Turkey,,,,,, Brazil, Bangladesh United States, Other,,,,,, Total,,,,,, China,,,,,, Bangladesh Turkey Indonesia Thailand Vietnam Pakistan Other,,,,,, Total,,,,,, United States,,,,,, India,,,,, Uzbekistan Australia Brazil Turkmenistan Burkina Other,,,,,, Total,,,,,, China,,,,,, India,,,,,, Brazil,,,,, Pakistan Australia United States,,, Turkey Other,,,,,, Total,,,,,, none none none none none December

6 Table Cotton World,, and Trade (Season Beginning August ) ( Bales) / / / / Nov / Dec / Australia,,,,, Brazil,,,,,, China,,,,,, India,,,,,, Pakistan,,,,,, United States,,,,,, Uzbekistan,,,,,, Other,,,,,, Total,,,,,, USE Dom. Consumption Bangladesh,,,,,, Brazil,,,,,, China,,,,,, India,,,,,, Indonesia,,,,,, Mexico,,,,,, Pakistan,,,,,, Thailand,,,,,, Turkey,,,,,, United States,,,,,, Other,,,,,, Total,,,,,, Bangladesh,,,,,, China,,,,,, Indonesia,,,,,, Korea, South,,,, Mexico,,,,,, Pakistan,,,,,, Taiwan,,,, Thailand,,,,,, Turkey,,,,,, Vietnam,,,,, Other,,,,,, Total,,,,,, Australia,,,,,, Brazil,,,,,, Burkina, Greece,, India,,,,,, Mali Tajikistan Turkmenistan,,, United States,,,,,, Uzbekistan,,,,,, Other,,,,,, Total,,,,,, Australia,,, Brazil,,,,,, China,,,,,, India,,,,,, Pakistan,,,,,, Turkey,,,,,, United States,,,,,, Other,,,,,, Total,,,,,, none none none none none December

7 Table Cotton, Yield, and / Region / (Million HA) Yield (Kilograms per hectare) (Million lb. bales) Change in Prel. / Proj. Prel. / Proj. Prel. / Proj. From last month From last year / Nov Dec / / Nov Dec / / Nov Dec MBales Percent MBales Percent World United States Total Foreign none Western Hemisphere Brazil....,,,, Mexico....,,,, Argentina Paraguay Peru Colombia Africa Burkina Mali Cote d'ivoire Cameroon Benin Chad Togo Senegal Egypt Zimbabwe Nigeria Asia Oceania China....,,,, India Pakistan Kazakhstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Turkey....,,,, Australia....,,,, Syria....,,,, Burma Europe Greece...., Others Note: Yeild for Total Foreign and Others is an incorrect calculation. December

8 Table Cotton and Distribution MY / (, HA and -lb. Bales) Total Afghanistan Albania Algeria Angola Argentina,, Armenia Australia,, -,, Austria Azerbaijan Bahrain Bangladesh,,, Belarus Belgium-Luxembour Benin Bolivia Brazil,,,, -,, Bulgaria Burkina, Burma Cambodia Cameroon Canada Central African Republic Chad Chile China,,,,,, Colombia Congo (Kinshasa) Costa Rica Cote d'ivoire Croatia Cuba Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark December

9 Table Cotton and Distribution MY / (Continued) (, HA and -lb. Bales) Total Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt, El Salvador Estonia Ethiopia France Germany Ghana Greece, Guatemala Guinea Haiti Honduras Hong Kong Hungary India,,,,,, Indonesia,,, Iran Iraq Ireland Israel Italy Japan Kazakhstan Kenya Korea, North Korea, South,,, Kyrgyzstan Latvia Lebanon Lithuania Macedonia Madagascar Malawi December

10 Table Cotton and Distribution MY / (Continued) (, HA and -lb. Bales) Total Malaysia Mali Mauritius Mexico,,, Moldova Morocco Mozambique Netherlands Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Pakistan,,,,,, Panama Paraguay Peru Philippines Poland Portugal Romania Russia Senegal Serbia and Montenegro Singapore Slovakia Slovenia Somalia South Africa Spain Sri Lanka Sudan Sweden Switzerland Syria,, Taiwan,,, Tajikistan December

11 Table Cotton and Distribution MY / (Continued) (, HA and -lb. Bales) Total Tanzania Thailand,,, Togo Tunisia Turkey,,,, -, Turkmenistan,,, Uganda Ukraine United Kingdom United States,,,,,, Uruguay Uzbekistan,,,,, Venezuela Vietnam,,, Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe World World,,,,, -,, December

12 Table A Cotton and Distribution MY / ( MT) Total Afghanistan Albania Algeria Angola Argentina Armenia Australia, - Austria Azerbaijan Bahrain Bangladesh, Belarus Belgium-Luxembour Benin Bolivia Brazil,, -, Bulgaria Burkina Burma Cambodia Cameroon Canada Central African Republic Chad Chile China,,,,,, Colombia Congo (Kinshasa) Costa Rica Cote d'ivoire Croatia Cuba Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark December

13 Table A Cotton and Distribution MY / (Continued) ( MT) Total Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Estonia Ethiopia France Germany Ghana Greece Guatemala Guinea Haiti Honduras Hong Kong Hungary India,,,,,, Indonesia Iran Iraq Ireland Israel Italy Japan Kazakhstan Kenya Korea, North Korea, South Kyrgyzstan Latvia Lebanon Lithuania Macedonia Madagascar Malawi December

14 Table A Cotton and Distribution MY / (Continued) ( MT) Total Malaysia Mali Mauritius Mexico Moldova Morocco Mozambique Netherlands Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Pakistan,,, Panama Paraguay Peru Philippines Poland Portugal Romania Russia Senegal Serbia and Montenegro Singapore Slovakia Slovenia Somalia South Africa Spain Sri Lanka Sudan Sweden Switzerland Syria Taiwan Tajikistan December

15 Table A Cotton and Distribution MY / (Continued) ( MT) Total Tanzania Thailand Togo Tunisia Turkey,, - Turkmenistan Uganda Ukraine United Kingdom United States,,, Uruguay Uzbekistan,, Venezuela Vietnam Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe World World,,,,, -,, December

16 Table : Cotton and Distribution by / (, HA and -lb. Bales) Total Afghanistan Albania Algeria Angola Argentina,, Armenia Australia,, -, Austria Azerbaijan Bahrain Bangladesh,,, Belarus Belgium-Luxembour Benin Bolivia Brazil,,, -,, Bulgaria Burkina Burma Cambodia Cameroon Canada Central African Republic Chad Chile China,,,,,, Colombia Congo (Kinshasa) Costa Rica Cote d'ivoire Croatia Cuba Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark December

17 Table : Cotton and Distribution by / (Continued) (, HA and -lb. Bales) Total Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt, El Salvador Estonia Ethiopia France Germany Ghana Greece, Guatemala Guinea Haiti Honduras Hong Kong Hungary India,,,,,, Indonesia,,, Iran Iraq Ireland Israel Italy Japan Kazakhstan Kenya Korea, North Korea, South,,, Kyrgyzstan Latvia Lebanon Lithuania Macedonia Madagascar Malawi December

18 Table : Cotton and Distribution by / (Continued) (, HA and -lb. Bales) Total Malaysia Mali Mauritius Mexico,,, Moldova Morocco Mozambique Netherlands Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Pakistan,,,,,, Panama Paraguay Peru Philippines Poland Portugal Romania Russia Senegal Serbia and Montenegro Singapore Slovakia Slovenia Somalia South Africa Spain Sri Lanka Sudan Sweden Switzerland Syria,, Taiwan,, Tajikistan December

19 Table : Cotton and Distribution by / (Continued) (, HA and -lb. Bales) Total Tanzania Thailand,,, Togo Tunisia Turkey,,,, -, Turkmenistan,,, Uganda Ukraine United Kingdom United States,,,,,, Uruguay Uzbekistan,,,,, Venezuela Vietnam,,, Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe World World,,,,, -,, December

20 Table A: Cotton and Distribution by / (, Metric Tons) Beginning Afghanistan Albania Algeria Angola Argentina Armenia Australia - Austria Azerbaijan Bahrain Bangladesh Belarus Belgium-Luxembour Benin Bolivia Brazil,, - Bulgaria Burkina Burma Cambodia Cameroon Canada Central African Republic Chad Chile China,,,,,, Colombia Congo (Kinshasa) Costa Rica Cote d'ivoire Croatia Cuba Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark December

21 Table A: Cotton and Distribution by / (Continued) (, Metric Tons) Beginning Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Estonia Ethiopia France Germany Ghana Greece Guatemala Guinea Haiti Honduras Hong Kong Hungary India,,,,,, Indonesia Iran Iraq Ireland Israel Italy Japan Kazakhstan Kenya Korea, North Korea, South Kyrgyzstan Latvia Lebanon Lithuania Macedonia Madagascar Malawi December

22 Table A: Cotton and Distribution by / (Continued) (, Metric Tons) Beginning Malaysia Mali Mauritius Mexico Moldova Morocco Mozambique Netherlands Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Pakistan,, Panama Paraguay Peru Philippines Poland Portugal Romania Russia Senegal Serbia and Montenegro Singapore Slovakia Slovenia Somalia South Africa Spain Sri Lanka Sudan Sweden Switzerland Syria Taiwan Tajikistan December

23 Table A: Cotton and Distribution by / (Continued) (, Metric Tons) Beginning Tanzania Thailand Togo Tunisia Turkey, - Turkmenistan Uganda Ukraine United Kingdom United States,,, Uruguay Uzbekistan Venezuela Vietnam Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe World World,,,,, -,, December

24 Table : World Cotton and Distribution (, HA and -lb. Bales) Mktg Year Beginning Total Total Dom. Cons. Stock to % World World,,,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,, / December

25 Table : United States Cotton and Distribution (, HA and -lb. Bales) Mktg Year Yield Beginning Total Stock to % United States, -,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /,,,,,,, /,,,,,,, /,,,,,,, /,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /,,,,,,, /,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /,,,,,,, /,,,,,,, / December

26 Table : Foreign Cotton and Distribution (, HA and -lb. Bales) Mktg Year Yield Beginning Total Total Foreign,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,, / December