Jack N. Saddler Position: Professor & Dean Organization/Company: University of British Columbia, Faculty of Forestry

Transcription

1 Presentation 2.1: Review of global bioenergy scenarios Jack N. Saddler Position: Professor & Dean Organization/Company: University of British Columbia, Faculty of Forestry Abstract Our team at the University of British Columbia has reviewed a number of existing studies of global forest biomass potential, particularly focused on industrial fibre supply. These studies, including a number of FAO publications, were used as the basis for an estimate of global industrial fibre supply in and 25. Using standard heating values for wood, it can be estimated that fibre surplus to industrial needs might supply between 35 and 12 EJ of energy in 25. In the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change s Special Report on Emission Scenarios, the models used anticipated bioenergy inputs of between 22 and 24 EJ in 25. There is a potential for bioenergy demand to exceed potential surplus measurements in all but the most optimistic scenarios. The FAO and partner institutions should undertake a new Fibre Supply Analysis that will take fuelwood and emerging bioenergy options into account. 95

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3 Review of global bioenergy scenarios W.E. Mabee, J.N. Saddler Forest Products Biotechnology, Department of Wood Science Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, Canada V6T 1Z4 International Seminar on Energy and the Forest Products Industry Rome, Italy: October 3 26 Outline 1. Drivers for bioenergy development 2. Global fibre supply and demand 3. Estimates of fibre surplus or deficits 4. Estimates of bioenergy demand 5. Summary & Recommendations 97

4 Looking back and forward log (primary energy use) by category Carbohydrate economy??-18 Hydrocarbon economy Carbohydrate economy ?? Agricultural-based Industrial revolution Coal Oil & Gas Biomass & renewables Oil Prices and World Events $8 $7 $6 $5 (US$/barrel West Texas Crude Oil) Kyoto Protocol 1 Dec 1997 Y2K 9-11 Venezuala Oil Strike Dec 22 - Feb 23 Hurricane Katrina 29 Aug 25 Iraq War 2 Mar 23 > $4 $3 $2 $1 $ Sources: (1) WorldOil.Com. 24,25,

5 Gasoline Prices April 26 Turkey: ~$2. CDN/litre (~$6.7 US/gal.) Venezuela: ~$.17 CDN/litre (~$.6 US/gal.) Turkey Norway Britain Germany Italy France South Korea Poland Japan Finland Lithuania Australia India Ecuador Brazil Canada South Africa United States Ghana Jamaica Mexico Argentina Guatemala China Russia Saudi Arabia Indonesia Venezuela $CDN/Litre, regular octane fuel $. $.25 $.5 $.75 $1. $1.25 $1.5 $1.75 $2. Base Price Tax Oil for Transportation 3% 25% (% Oil usage by sector) 25% of 195 usage 2% 15% Other Sectors 1% 5% Transportation % Source: (1) EIA. 25. Annual Energy Review. US oil demand by end-use sector. 99

6 Mainland China Auto Use Vehicle Sales, (, cars/a) Trucks and commercial vehicles Passenger vehicles Historic data Forecasts Sources: (1) Crain Communications, Automotive News, March 15, 24; (2) South China Morning Post, Wednesday, June 23, 24, p. B4. (3) Ward's World Motor Vehicle Data, 25; (4) Shanghai Consular Region Report, East China Automotive Aftermarket, 25; (5) China National Automotive Industry Consulting & Developing Corporation, 26 Outline 1. Drivers for bioenergy development 2. Global fibre supply and demand 3. Estimates of fibre surplus or deficits 4. Estimates of bioenergy demand 5. Summary & Recommendations 1

7 GFPM (1997) Consumption/productionoriented model National and regional analysis of trends Global amalgamation of figures 3 Scenarios: 1. Low production 2. Average production 3. High production Fibre Supply: GFPM 1994, 16 Expected roundwood supply, million m Scenario 3 Scenario 2 Scenario 1 Roundwood supply Africa Asia Oceania Europe Former USSR North America Latin America 11

8 GFSM (1998) Supply-oriented model Review of all existing studies at national/ subnational levels Regional/global amalgamation 3 Futures 1. Business-as-usual 2. Increased development 3. Conservative or green development Fibre Supply: GFSM 1996,, Expected industrial fibre supply, million m Future 3 Future 2 Future 1 Plantations Semi-Natural forests Natural forests Africa Asia Oceania Europe Former USSR North America Latin America 12

9 Other studies to date Multiple IIASA reports and models (usually regional, sometimes global) FAO Asia-Pacific Forestry Sector Outlook Study (1997) FAO Forestry Outlook Study for Africa (23) FAO Trends and outlook in Latin America (24) UNEP Forests in Flux report IEA Bioenergy Global bio-energy potentials to 25 (Smeets, Faaij et al. 24) Outline 1. Drivers for bioenergy development 2. Global fibre supply and demand 3. Estimates of fibre surplus or deficits 4. Estimates of bioenergy demand 5. Summary & Recommendations 13

10 Our predictions Three future scenarios of global forest fibre supply and global forest products demand Low scenario - increased economic competitiveness and decrease in forest investment Medium scenario - business as usual case High scenario - green requirements push industrial plantations Predicted Fibre Supply/Demand 1 8 Expected industrial fibre, million m 3 SUPPLY Afforestation Industrial Roundwood Industrial Plantations Forests -2-4 CONSUMPTION 25 14

11 Predicted Fibre Surplus 1 8 Expected industrial fibre, million m 3 SURPLUS Surplus Afforestation Surplus Predicted Fibre Surplus 1 8 Expected industrial fibre, million m 3 SURPLUS BUT: Estimated fuelwood consumption equals industrial roundwood consumption Surplus Afforestation Surplus

12 Predicted Fibre Surplus 1 8 Expected industrial fibre, million m 3 SURPLUS Some of this (25-5%) may be sourced by non-industrial forests and trees outside forests (From the Asia-Pacific Forestry Sector Outlook Study) Surplus Afforestation Surplus Predicted Fibre Surplus 1 8 Expected industrial fibre, million m 3 SURPLUS Surplus Afforestation Surplus The rest will come from industrial forests

13 Corrected Fibre Surplus/Deficit 1 8 Expected industrial fibre, million m 3 INDUSTRIAL SURPLUS Scenario: 75% Fuelwood Demand from Industrial Forests Fuelwood Surplus Afforestation Surplus Deficit -2-4 FUELWOOD CONSUMPTION 25 17

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15 Cumulative impacts - area Denmark 5 million ha Portugal 1 million ha million ha 25: 15 million ha 'spread over' (green, red, grey) 25: 7 million ha red attack Sources: 1) Council of Forest Industries

16 New wood pellet capacity 4 new wood pellet plants, to use 1.5 million m 3 of wood over 1 years 4.7 million m 3 increase in annual allowable cut for bioenergy ~23% increase in the AAC for the Prince George & Quesnel regions alone Potential bioenergy supply Heating value of wood: 15 GJ/t (2% moisture) GJ/t (BDT) Wood energy potential (surplus industrial fibre): : 5.7 to 33. EJ 25: 13.3 to EJ 11

17 Outline 1. Drivers for bioenergy development 2. Global fibre supply and demand 3. Estimates of fibre surplus or deficits 4. Estimates of bioenergy demand 5. Summary & Recommendations Modelling future biofuel use Model ran globally for GHG emissions Used IPCC marker and illustrative scenarios Used predictions of biomass energy use that reflected technological and social changes 111

18 IPCC Scenarios 1. A1 Scenarios rapid and successful development A1T new technologies enable economic dev. A1FI fossil intensive future A1B balanced approach with new tech, fossil fuels 2. A2 Scenario lower trade, reduced tech change 3. B1 Scenario sustainable development, green goals 4. B2 Scenario neutral approach following current trends Global Energy Demand, IPCC 3, Predicted Energy Demand (EJ) 2,5 2, 1,5 ~2,3 EJ (A1FI) ~2,2 EJ (A1B) ~1,7 EJ (A2) ~1,3 EJ (A1T, B2) 1, 5 ~5 EJ (B1)

19 Global Bioenergy Demand, IPCC 5 Predicted Energy Demand (EJ) ~37 EJ (A1T, A1FI, A1B) ~3 EJ (B2) ~16 EJ (A2) ~7 EJ (B1) Predicted RPPs in Canada Expected production, Refined Petroleum Products (EJ) 8 7 ~7.5 EJ (A2) 6 5 ~5.4 EJ (A1FI) 4 3 ~3.6 EJ (A1B) ~2.9 EJ (A1T, B2) 2 1 ~1 EJ (B1) Source: (1) Statistics Canada (26); (2) IPCC (23) 113

20 Predicted Biofuels 21 Expected production, Refined Petroleum Products (EJ) EJ (High) EJ (Low) Outline 1. Drivers for bioenergy development 2. Global fibre supply and demand 3. Estimates of fibre surplus or deficits 4. Estimates of bioenergy demand 5. Summary & Recommendations 114

21 Summary of estimates Estimated supply (industrial roundwood surplus), 25: 13.3 to EJ Estimated demand (all sources of bioenergy), 25: 22 to 24 EJ Questions: How much bioenergy can the forest provide in reality? How will bioenergy impact existing forest products? Can fuelwood be used to supply industrial bioenergy? Recommendations FAO and partners should undertake a new Fibre Supply Analysis that takes fuelwood and emerging bioenergy options into account The use of new technologies to more efficiently extract bioenergy at all stages of forest operations must be considered Champions need to be identified in our organizations to move this project forward 115