Building the business case for climate change adaptation in Eastern Canada at the municipal level

Transcription

1 Building the business case for climate change adaptation in Eastern Canada at the municipal level presented by, Charles-Antoine Gosselin, Economist Authors: Laurent Da Silva, senior economist Charles-Antoine Gosselin, economist Caroline Simard, economist Travis Logan, Climate scenarios specialist

2 Ouranos is a boundary organization MH RTA OPG HQ QGov U U U U Ouranos CGov U U

3 Project background Cost of inaction Urban heat islands Presentation plan Benefits of adaptation Stormwater management Urban forest pest control strategies Campaigns against alien invasive species Complete streets program Conclusion

4 Project background Quebec city - Population :

5 EXPECTED CHANGES FOR AVERAGE SUMMER TEMPERATURE Degree Celsius, Quebec city, 2050, 2100 EXPECTED CHANGES FOR TOTAL ANNUAL PRECIPITATIONS Millimetre, Quebec city, 2050, 2100 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 COST OF INACTION Estimating inaction sectorial costs of climate change impacts Impacts Rising temperature Increased rainfall Critical issues Urban heat islands Stormwater management Flood BENEFITS OF ADAPTATION Estimating benefits of adaptation to climate change Impacts Rising temperature Longer growing seasons + Adaptation measures to critical issues Campaigns against alien invasive species Urban forest pest control strategies Smart streets program

6 Cost of inaction : Urban heat islands

7 Cost of inaction : Air conditioning related to urban heat island The province of Quebec has one the cheapest electricity rates in the world But the Quebecers, in 2013, were also the third largest consumers in the world By 2050, temperature increase will reduce by 9,1% the energy demand in Quebec for the residential sector (Lafrance, 2015) However, the demand for air conditioning will increase by 4,1% (Lafrance, 2015) EVOLUTION OF THE TOTAL COST OF AIR CONDITIONING RELATED TO HEAT ISLAND Millions of Canadian dollars, Quebec city, Residential sector Commercial sector Administrative sector

8 EVOLUTION OF THE ANNUAL COST PER DWELLING-UNIT FOR AIR CONDITIONING Millions of Canadian dollars, Quebec city,

9 Cost of inaction : Health impacts of heat islands EVOLUTION OF MORTALITY ASSOCIATED WITH HEAT ISLANDS Number of annual cases, Quebec City, Other causes Respiratory causes Cardiovascular causes

10 Negatives externalities: Looking at the big disaggregated picture 3% 40% 57% Commercial area Residential area Administrative area

11 Cost of inaction : Stormwater management

12 Cost of inaction : Stormwater management EVOLUTION OF TOTAL ANNUAL COST FOR WASTE-WATER TREATMENT PLANTS Millions of $, Quebec City, HISTORICAL AND PROJECTION OF ANNUAL DURATION OF STORMWATER OVERFLOW Thousands of minutes, Quebec City,

13 Benefits of adaptation : Emerald ash borer control program

14 Benefits of adaptation : Emerald ash borer control program 20 years 5 years

15 Benefits of adaptation : Emerald ash borer control program CUMULATIVE NET PRESENT VALUE: EMERALD ASH BORER CONTROL PROGRAM Millions of $, Quebec City, PROJECTED ASH POPULATION Number of dead ash trees, Quebec City,

16 Benefits of adaptation : Common reed control CUMULATIVE NET PRESENT VALUE: COMMON REED CONTROL PROGRAM Millions of $, Quebec City,

17 Benefits of adaptation : Complete streets program

18 Benefits of adaptation : Complete streets program 2 streets renewed Net present values for both streets : $ and $

19 Benefits of adaptation : Complete streets program Encouraging active transportation Optimal loss of parking space Intersection safety increased for bikers and walker Bikes paths more visible Net benefit regarding health costs (bicycle accident costs < lower cost related to health improvement) One way : speeding up traffic?

20 Benefits of adaptation : Complete streets program Creating green streets Modelizing value of ecosystem services with itree Carbon Air Quality Avoided Runoff Energy Effects Structure Increasing diversity of species Long-term benefit

21 Benefits of adaptation : Complete streets program CUMULATIVE NET PRESENT VALUE: STORMWATER BEST MANAGEMENT PRACTICES Thousands of $, Quebec City,

22 Benefits of adaptation : Complete streets program Designing for four-season use Limited economic results

23 Regular members Co-authors: Laurent Da Silva, senior economist Caroline Simard, economist Travis Logan, Climate scenarios specialist Affiliate members

24 Charles-Antoine Gosselin Economist Charles-Antoine