Climate change and Norwegian forest management. Rasmus Astrup

Transcription

1 Climate change and Norwegian forest management Rasmus Astrup

2 Contents > Background: State of Norwegian forests > Climate change and forests > Effects on forests productivity > Effects on natural disturbance > Mitigation potential of Norwegian forests > Adaptive forest management: information needs

3 Norwegian Forests: Tree species Spruce Pine Birch 37% of Norway is forested

4 Historisk tilvekst og avvirkning

5 Ortofoto: Source: Norge i Bilder Ortofoto: Source: Norge i Bilder Ortofoto: Source: Norge i Bilder

6 Sale of tree seedlings for establishment of forests Number of plants (10 6 ) Birch Pine Spruce Kilde: frøtreverket

7 Effects on forest productivity 1. Throughout Europe higher than expected forest productivity is observed in long-term monitoring systems 2. The effect of climate change on forest productivity will vary dependent on region. Generally expected to be positive in Norway. 3. The effect of climate change will vary locally due to site differences (soil water and nutrient availability)

8 National forest inventory > The Norwegian Inventory is based on a 3 3 km grid with permanent inventory plots > 5-year measurement cycle 9 km 3 km > Now in the 5th inventory cycle > Significant increase in growth rates observed over the past 20 years X X X

9 Climate Change and Forest productivity: regional differences and high uncertainty Source: Ahlstrom et al Environ. Res. Lett.

10 Local gradients in soil conditions

11 Spruce productivity and temperature on different site types

12 Effects on natural disturbance (e.g. fire, snow, storms, insect outbreaks) 1. Climate change will increase risk of major disturbances 2. Risk of climate change induced disturbances is a combined result of the forest structure (management) and the climate 3. Change to risk for major disturbances are more likely to change strategic decision making than changes in growth rates

13 Damages from windstorm i Europa Volume of timber affected (Mill. M 3 )

14 Volum (mill m3) Birch Pine Spruce

15 Effect of wet soil on tree stability Kamimura et al Eur. J. For. Res.

16 Mitigation potential 1. Norwegian forest play a major role in the total GHG emissions for Norway 2. Managed for forest for climate mitigation has a strong component of temporal tradeoffs 3. It is important to consider biophysical attributes as well as the carbon cycle when assessing the climate mitigation potential of forests

17 Historic harvest and increment Volum (mill m3) Expression of carbon uptake Forest increment Harvest

18 Norwegian GHG emissions by category Source: NIR 2013

19 Storage strategy Volum (mill m3) Year Increment Harvest

20 Active management and use strategy Volum (mill m3) Year Increment Harvest

21 Insight beyond the carbon cycle: Albedo Bright et al Climatic Change

22 Empirical model of albedo in Hedmark county Bright et al Climatic Change

23 Combining carbon cycle and albedo effects: Scenario analysis from eastern Norway S0: Business as usual (BAU) scenario S1: BAU regeneration and increased harvest intensity S2: Regeneration with birch and BAU harvest intensity S3: Regeneration with birch and increased harvest (S1+S2) *BAU is an adapted predictive harvest modeling approach from Antón-Fernández & Astrup (2012)

24 Simulation results Bright et al. in progress

25 Adaptive forest management: Information needs 1. Forest will be affected by climate change we will not foresee all effects hence we need to adapt along the way 2. Managing forest in the content of climate change implies that the should be seen in conjunction with other sectors 3. Adaptive management will require information: monitoring data to detect and quantify effects and spatial data for local adaptation and management

26 Geographic forest information: required for adaptive management

27 Summary 1. Forest will be impacted by climate change both in terms of productivity and risk which both will be strongly affacted by forest management 2. Forest play a large role in Norway's GHG emissions but to reach the optimal decision about forest management for climate mitigation we also have to consider albedo 3. Forest management will have to adapt along the way there will be a absolute need for monitoring data and spatial data for adaptation

28 The end

29 Global forest resources Source: FAO FRA 2010