FORESTS AND THE 1.5 TEMPERATURE GOAL: THE POLITICS OF (NOT) AVOIDING DEFORESTATION

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1 FORESTS AND THE 1.5 TEMPERATURE GOAL: THE POLITICS OF (NOT) AVOIDING DEFORESTATION Implications of Network Patterns in Land Use Change and Migration on Households Involvement in Forest Conservation: A Comparative Analysis of Laos, Vietnam and Indonesia MARIA BROCKHAUS, NIKKI DE SY, ASTRID BOS, AMY DUCHELLE, MARTIN HEROLD, GRACE WONG, PHAM THU THUY, ANNE LARSON, SVEN WUNDER, ARILD ANGELSEN, LOU VERCHOT, WILLIAM SUNDERLIN, MARKKU KANNINEN, CHRISTOPHER MARTIUS AND MANY OTHERS IUFRO conference Vaasa June Maria Brockhaus et al.

2 OVERVIEW 1. Agrarian change, social networks and migration dynamics 2. Network structure and forest conservation 3. Initial results for two hypotheses 4. Concluding remarks Maria Brockhaus

3 AGRARIAN CHANGE In many areas in Southeast Asia smallholder systems (e.g. swidden) form part of people s lives and livelihoods while often remote, wide-spanning networks of resource exchange and influence are impacting people s decision-making processes over land and land use Systems undergoing major changes agrarian change, often characterized by processes of resource dispossession, finance and financing, vulnerability and marginalisation, urban-rural relations (Fairbearn et al 2014) - Large-scale land-use change, often decided at a macro level, translated through government and private sector networks - Local population dynamics, de/re-agrianization and related labour dynamics - Migration and dual residencies in rural-urban spaces: remittances, skills, knowledge Maria Brockhaus

4 MIGRATION AND NETWORKS What type of migration (in, out, temporary, seasonal, transnational, regional )? Who migrates, what gender, background, what experiences and where to? Who does not, why? How does migration affect agrarian change Migration success and failure, bias in what is reported by those that stayed? Different implications of migration and remittances: risks (Riggs 2015), Peluso and Purwanto (2017): remittance forest, transformed HH and new property regimes and production structures, Hecht (2010) new rurality.. Hecht (2014) forest lost and found.. Maria Brockhaus

5 RESEARCH QUESTION - How does agrarian change and the social networks within affect standing forests and trees? What hinders or enables conservation? Can out-migration and mobility lead to higher levels of formal and informal engagement in the conservation of forests and tree resources? - We argue that: i) larger scale land-use change is often stimulated by governmental policies aiming at increased agricultural cash-commodity production or by concessions and land sales. we expect higher levels of non-local private sector and governmental actors driving the conversion of forests to other land use and featuring in advise network ii) forest conservation facilitated by migration through a) new information/awareness, skills, remittances and b) through labour dynamics reducing agricultural land area we would expect that the availability of financial and informational resources from migration would have a positive effect on engagement in conservation. Maria Brockhaus

6 HYPOTHESES (AND LINKS TO QUESTIONNAIRE) Which relations lead to conservation: Who is involved, through whom, in formal and informal conservation activities (19-21) What network patterns hinder or enable (informal) conservation engagement: Larger scale land use change is often stimulated by gov policies to stimulate agricultural cash commodity production or by concessions, land sales - H1: Higher levels of village-external private sector and governmental actors drive conversion of forests to other land uses (16-18) and reduce forest cover Migration can facilitate/motivate informal forest conservation through i) Provision of information/awareness on forest conservation, ii) Shortage of labour reduces agricultural area - H2: resources from migration have a positive effect on forest conservation(34-37) Maria Brockhaus

7 RESEARCH SITES AND METHODS 4 villages in Kapuas Hulu, Indonesia 3 villages in Con Cuong and Van Ho, Vietnam 3 villages in Vienthong and Hiam, Laos Vienthong and Hiam Huaphan Van Ho Son La Con Cuong Nghe An ASFCC Project Sites Ph 1: Ph 2: Ph 3: 2017-now Research conducted in phase 2: - 30 gender and age disaggregated FGDs social network and household surveys Kapuas Hulu West Kalimantan Swidden agriculture features strongly Proximity to or presence of industrial agriculture (oil palm, rubber, maize, acacia) and/or protected area

8 PRELIMINARY FINDINGS Maria Brockhaus

9 LAND USE CHANGE A. Name B. Role/occupation of that person/ organization C. Relation 16 A. Has your household been affected by or has conducted (forest) land use change over the past 5 years? Yes/No [INTERVIEWER, PLEASE NOTE: this question is sensitive as this can be also illegal land clearing please explore carefully if the HH has expanded their agricultural fields at the expense of forest land, or if they have lost forest land to large scale conversion claims by State or other private actors (e.g. oil palm concession). D. How did you know each other? B. If no, why? (Interviewer, please probe briefly for possible considerations or limitations, opportunities, then continue with Q19) E. Since when do you know each other F. Frequency of contact (tick appropriate) Daily/weekly/monthly/yearly Regularly/sporadic Over long period/recently Daily/weekly/monthly/yearly Regularly/sporadic Over long period/recently Daily/weekly/monthly/yearly Regularly/sporadic Over long period/recently 17. Who advised you to change your land use? (Interviewer, take up to three most relevant actors) Other Other Other

10 LAND USE CHANGE Depending on village/country context - drivers of LUC range from logging companies, oilpalm and acacia and paddy rice/maize/rubber plantation programs, to HH needs for swidden expansion - limitations to LUC mainly related to labor availability, government restrictions for shifting cultivation, and absence of public and private sector stimulated land conversion Maria Brockhaus

11 LINK TO REDD+ AND OTHER FOREST CONSERVATION ACTIVITIES 20. A1. Have you been involved in any forest conservation (including sustainable forest management) projects, programs, or schemes? Yes/No B1. No (If No, interviewer, probe for reason why no engagement, then move to Q23) B2. Yes (If yes, interviewer, note down a brief description of each (max 3). Please probe for information regarding approach (compulsory, voluntary), motivation (e.g. (financial) incentives), process of participation, forest land type used (private, village, state, etc.)) 21. Who advised you to get involved in the program, project, scheme? (Interviewer, take up to three most relevant actors)

12 NEW INCOME, SKILLS AND CONTACTS FROM MIGRATION TO ENGAGE IN FOREST CONSERVATION 34. A. Did any income (remittances) or skills (new knowledge, techniques) or new contacts from migration help you getting engaged in any kind of forest conservation? Yes/No B1. No (Interviewer, please probe if the HH s forest land were affected in any other way by migration, note down how and why, then move to Q36) B2. Yes (Interviewer, please mark what applies from the above and provide more detailed information) 35. Who (e.g. which migrant, middle man) facilitated or provided the resources (remittances, skills, contacts) to get engaged in forest conservation?

13 FOREST CONSERVATION AND MIGRATION In Indonesia, FC and SFM often understood as improvements of swidden and the fallows through improved tree varieties (ironwood, agarwood (incense), fruittrees, rubber) and diversity; In Laos, knowledge through migration or through exposure to others from further away seems to be more related to market access and classic conservation projects; In Vietnam, informants pointed out that migration enable them to participate in Accacia plantations, through provision of skills and finance livestock and farming techniques were also mentioned. Maria Brockhaus

14 Maria Brockhaus

15 OUTLOOK INITIAL FINDINGS: Preliminary indication that H1 is confirmed (GOV/Private Sector networks facilitate LUC with somewhat unknown implications ) H2 remains open, fascinating nuances and understandings of what migration enabled what type of forest conservation across countries and sites METHODOLOGICAL CHALLENGES: multi-country and -site, languages, disciplinary backgrounds, diverse team capacities: maintaining comparative element despite language challenges, e.g with the indigenization of questionnaire within a context of co-production of knowledge SOME RESPONSES: trainings (repeated), knowledge sharing workshops, quality management in the field during interviews and in reflections after; harmonizing the harmonisers, quality management of data and data entry in-time, possibly simultaneously to fieldwork.. ANALYTICAL ISSUES: Some network measures not possible due to lack of actual network data (no total network) OUTLOOK: first attempts with comparative design to explore these dynamics in more depths, little in literature so far, learning by doing Maria Brockhaus

16 KIITOS! 28/06/

17 NETWORK ANALYSIS - WHAT IS IT.. Method and theory Often very mathematical, makes it more a method But also a theory, a worldview, how social systems interact (e.g. policy network theory) Analytical focus is on relations, not attributes SNA studies patterns of relations, not just relations between pairs (Wellman, 2011:14) Relational and positional, interest in the group itself and not representativeness of its members

18 DATA ANALYSIS Different levels of analysis: dyad actor sub groups whole network Implications for measurements and hypothesis testing/development Methodological challenges: Boundary definition (often biggest challenge): theory, experts, snowball, etc. Questionnaire: Roster vs free recall, Free vs fixed choice; Ratings vs complete ranking Major issue: missing values, actors